Trends in Student Loan Debt

1. Trends in Student Loan Debt May 24, 2016 Mark Kantrowitz Publisher and VP of Strategy Cappex.com

2. Outstanding Student Loan Debt Milestones • 2010 • Federal and private student loan debt exceeds credit card debt • 2011 • Federal and private student loan debt exceeds auto loan debt • 2012 • Federal and private student loan debt reaches $1 trillion • 2013 • Federal student loan debt reaches $1 trillion on its own • Federal and private student loan debt reaches $1.2 trillion • 2014 • Cohort default rates drop for the first time since the start of the economic downturn • New federal education loan volume drops for second year in a row

3. Growth in Total Student Loan Debt Outstanding

4. Growth in Average Total Undergraduate Student Loan Debt at Graduation

5. Average Student Loan Debt at Graduation

6. How Much Debt is Reasonable and Affordable? • Students (and parents) need to keep their total student loan debt in sync with income. • Total student loan debt at graduation should be less than the annual starting salary and, ideally, a lot less. • If total debt is less than annual income, the borrower should be able to repay his or her student loans in ten years or less. • If total debt exceeds annual income, the borrower will struggle to repay the debt and will need an alternate repayment plan, like extended repayment or income-based repayment, to afford the monthly loan payments. • Equivalent to a debt-service-to-income ratio of up to 10% • Parents should borrow no more for all their children than they can afford to repay in ten years or by the time they retire, whichever comes first.

7. More Students Graduating with Excessive Debt

8. Percent of Graduating Borrowers who have Excessive Debt

9. Higher-Cost Colleges Drive Student Loan Debt at Graduation

10. Low-Income Enrollment Shifting to Lower-Cost Colleges

11. Ratio of Annual Net Price to Total Income, 2011-2012

12. Federal Pell Grant Recipients Graduate with More Debt

13. Most Six-Figure Debt is Graduate/Professional

14. Delayed Decline in Serious Student Loan Delinquencies (FRBNY)

15. Cohort Default Rates

16. Problem Areas Needing Attention • Advance-Fee Loan Scams • Inadequate Disclosures when Refinancing Federal Student Loans into Private Loans • Cosigner Release • Lack of Standardized Financial Aid Award Letters • Federal Student Loans are Not Subject to TILA • Weak Credit Underwriting of Federal Parent PLUS Loans • Colleges Lack Controls to Prevent Over-Borrowing • Gainful Employment Rules Do Not Apply to Degree Programs at Traditional Colleges and Universities • Complexity of Student Loan Repayment Options • High Default Rates for College Dropouts • Lack of Financial Literacy (Students and Parents) • Inadequate Funding of Default Aversion and Loan Counseling • For-Profit Colleges

17. Policy Recommendations • Financial literacy training • Build financial literacy training into the secondary school curriculum • Have a refresher course during college orientation and graduation • Provide financial literacy training to parents and educators, too • Provide clarity concerning college affordability • Standardize financial aid award letters • Distinguish loans from grants on award letters and list the net price • Reduce suggested loan amounts on award letters • Require federal education loans to comply with TILA • Improve student loan counseling • More frequent counseling (each year the student borrows) • Personalize with 10-year payments based on current and projected debt • Provide aggressive counseling for high-debt students • Establish peer counseling programs • Base Federal Parent PLUS loan eligibility on debt-service-to-income ratios • Track whether students are graduating with affordable debt

18. Thank You Follow Mark Kantrowitz on Twitter at @mkant Read policy research at www.studentaidpolicy.com