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Review of Recent Climate Anomalies C F Ropelewski IRI for Climate Prediction 17 Jun 03

Review of Recent Climate Anomalies C F Ropelewski IRI for Climate Prediction 17 Jun 03 Monthly-to-Seasonal Climate Forecast Forum Research and Development Center Central Weather Bureau (Video-Conference Presentation). Climate Highlights Spring 2003

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Review of Recent Climate Anomalies C F Ropelewski IRI for Climate Prediction 17 Jun 03

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  1. Review of Recent Climate Anomalies C F Ropelewski IRI for Climate Prediction 17 Jun 03 Monthly-to-Seasonal Climate Forecast Forum Research and Development Center Central Weather Bureau (Video-Conference Presentation)

  2. Climate Highlights Spring 2003 • Widespread dry conditions with some notable exceptions • Positive temperature anomalies continue to dominate • Move towards La Nina (Cold) Conditions (More from Tony Barnston)

  3. May 03 Global Rainfall Anomaly March to May 03 Regional-Rainfall Anomaly

  4. 12 Month (June 2002 to May 2003) Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP) Index

  5. May 2003 Wind Anom 925mb

  6. May 2003 Global Surface Temperature Regional SST

  7. May 26, 2003 June 8, 2003

  8. Eastern Asia Climate Forecast for Jul-Aug-Sep 2003 Tony Barnston IRI

  9. IRI DYNAMICAL CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM HISTORICAL DATA Extended simulations Observations GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ECPC(Scripps) ECHAM4.5(MPI) CCM3.2(NCAR) NCEP(MRF9) NSIPP(NASA) COLA2.x PERSISTED GLOBAL SST Persisted SST Ensembles 3 Mo. lead 10 POST PROCESSING -Statistics -Multimodel Ensembling -graphics 24 10 FORECAST SST TROP. PACIFIC (NCEP dynamical) TROP. ATL, INDIAN (statistical) EXTRATROPICAL (damped persistence) 10 Forecast SST Ensembles 3/6 Mo. lead 24 10 10 10 10 REGIONAL MODELS AGCM INITIAL CONDITIONS UPDATED ENSEMBLES (10+) WITH OBSERVED SST

  10. SST anomaly from 2 weeks ago

  11. SST anomaly from last week

  12. Weekly “Nino” SST over the Last 7 Weeks Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino3.4 Nino4 30 Apr -1.6 -.7 .0 .4 7 May -1.6 -.9 -.4 .3 14 May -1.8 -.9 -.4 .2 21 May -1.8 -1.0 -.5 .2 28 May -1.7 -.8 -.3 .4 4 Jun -1.6 -.9 -.2 .3 11 Jun -1.6 -.8 -.1 .4

  13. Persisted SST Scenario

  14. June Forecasts for SST in Nino3.4 Region JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA 2003-------------------------2004--- -108-119-127-125-112 -92 -70 -49 -27 D NASA/NSIPP -23 -13 -8 0 10 21-999-999-999 DxNCEP/EMC 12 28 34 40 47 50-999-999-999 D JAP MET AGCY -40 -49 -59 -68 -72 -75 -76 -61 -42 D SCRIPPS ECPC -26 -37 -47 -58 -66 -73 -80 -79-999 D LDEO 15 22 24 33 33 34 41 39-999 DxAUSTR CSIRO -74 -87 -89 -77 -67 -54 -36 -19-999 D AUSTR POAMA -24 -27 -26-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -40 -47 -50 -47 -43 -43 -43 -43-999 DxKOREA MET AG SNU -4 -21 -39 -57 -72 -85 -95 -98 -98 D ZHANG ICM -35 -30 -20 -78 23 34 40 43 S CPC MARKOV -25 -26 -27 -28 -30 -31 -32 -31 -30 S CDC LIN INVERSE -47 -66 -92-113-123-122-103 -80 -46 S DOOL CONST ANALOG 64 61 62 63 73 75 70 58 43 S CPC CCA -15 -25 -35 -43 -37 -31 -26 -23 -20 S CSU CLIPER -30 -20 -11 -210 23 35 53 70 S UBC NONLIN CCA -23 -18 -14 -11 -10 -10 -10 -11 -11 S FSU REGRESSION

  15. Tropical Pacific: Average of-- NCEP coupled LDEO4 Constructed analog

  16. Tropical Pacific: Average of-- NCEP coupled LDEO4 Constructed analog

  17. If there is a La Nina

  18. If there is a La Nina

  19. Dry Mask

  20. Using Persisted SST

  21. Using Persisted SST

  22. Persisted SST from May

  23. Persisted SST from May

  24. Summary Precipitation: Climatological probabilities, or very slight tilt toward wet Temperature: 50% to 55% probability of above normal.

  25. Western North Pacific model tropical cyclone activity Suzana J. Camargo June 16, 2003.

  26. Introduction • Forecasting of seasonal tropical cyclone activity is important. • DYNAMICAL forecasting of seasonal hurricane activity is a promising approach. • Detection of tropical cyclone-like structures in models.

  27. TropicalCyclones in AGCMs • AGCMs can create model tropical cyclones (MTCs) with strong similarities to observed tropical cyclones. • MTCs in LOW resolution AGCMs have deficiencies: impact on their INTENSITY .

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