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ACE Limited JP Morgan 2003 Insurance Fixed Income Conference

ACE Limited JP Morgan 2003 Insurance Fixed Income Conference. March 13, 2003. Safe Harbor Disclosure. Application of the Safe Harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:

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ACE Limited JP Morgan 2003 Insurance Fixed Income Conference

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  1. ACE LimitedJP Morgan 2003 InsuranceFixed Income Conference March 13, 2003

  2. Safe Harbor Disclosure Application of the Safe Harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: • Forward-looking statements are being made in this presentation; actual results could differ materially from projected results. • Some of the forward-looking statements may include references to financial forecasts, rating changes, the impact of financing plans, claims payments, rates, demand, credit spreads, profitability, income, growth potential, business mix, reserves, reinsurance recoverables, investments, expenses and tax rates. • Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: • the competitive environment in which the Company operates; • global political conditions, the occurrence of terrorist attacks or the outbreak of war; • rating agency actions; • fluctuations in interest rates and other market conditions affecting investments and financing opportunities; • the actual amount of new and renewal business and market acceptance of the Company’s products; • the occurrence of catastrophic events or other insured or reinsured events with a frequency or severity exceeding the Company’s estimates, actual loss experience and the amount and timing of mitigating recoveries, including reinsurance collections; • credit developments among reinsurers; • the uncertainities in the loss reserving and claims settlement process; and • economic, legal, regulatory, litigation, judicial and legislative developments or uncertainties. • See our SEC filings and our latest earnings press release and financial supplement , which are available on our website, particularly our safe harbor language, for more information on factors that could affect our forward looking statements.

  3. Agenda • Company overview • 2003 outlook • Asbestos • Rating agency update

  4. Business Overview • Leading property casualty insurance and reinsurance company with $43 billion in assets • Global platform with operations in almost 50 countries • Diversified product offerings in commercial lines, financial guaranty, personal lines, accident and health insurance and reinsurance • Publicly-traded since 1993; founded in 1985

  5. Key Objectives • Underwriting profitability, even if it means exiting a line of business • Diversification of products and geography achieved via internal growth and acquisitions, as appropriate • ROE of 15% or better

  6. $8.1 billion in net premiums written in 2002 Insurance-North American is largest premium source with $2.9 billion or 36% of total premiums Insurance-Overseas General is second largest segment with premium of $2.7 billion or 34% of total premiums Financial Services premium is variable, as loss portfolio transfer (LPT) business skews results. Business Segments $ in Millions (18%) (36%) (12%) (34%)

  7. Business Segments • Operating earnings before the $354 million asbestos and environmental charge totaled $865 million • Insurance-North American is the largest segment at 42% of operating earnings before corporate expenses • Global Reinsurance is the second largest earnings contributor at 28% $ in Millions (19%) (43%) (27%) (11%) * Excluding $354 million after-tax charge for A&E prior period reserve development

  8. Insurance – North American • Premium growth in 2002 driven by: • Rate increases • New products ($200 million GPW) • Indicative rate increases • U.S. casualty up 75% • U.S. D&O up 90% $ in Millions 43% 5% 70%

  9. Insurance – North American • 2002 adjusted loss rate of 68.0% flat with 2001’s despite rate increases • Change in business mix • Prior year reserve development higher in 2002 than 2001 • 2002 satellite losses • 2002 underwriting and administrative expense ratio down to 22.5% from 28.7% in 2001 • Greater proportion of lower commission D&O and E&O business • Administrative expenses up less than earned premium growth 111.4% 104.3% 92.4%

  10. Insurance – Overseas General • Business expansion and rate increases driving premium growth in all regions • Japanese market is an exception; flat except for introduction of new fire lines • P&C rates up, with exception of aviation, in ACE Global Markets • Increased reinsurance costs suppressed net premium growth in 2002 at ACE GM $ in Millions 11% 34% 9% 42% 42%

  11. Insurance – Overseas General • 2002 adjusted combined ratio down modestly compared to 2001 • ACE Global Markets turnaround continues; 2002 combined ratio of 109.3% versus 107.3% 9/11 adjusted 2001 (124.3% unadjusted) • ACE International level; 2002 combined ratio of 95.5% versus 109.9% 9/11 adjusted 2001 (111.6% unadjusted) 115.2% 99.4% 99.3% * Adjusted for 9/11 claims and casualty reserve charge in 2001

  12. Global Reinsurance • P&C growth driven by diversification initiative and rate increases • 4Q-01 large life deal skews life and total premium comparisons for 2002 • Life segment will be included in Global Reinsurance going forward $ in Millions 120% 29% 422%

  13. Global Reinsurance • Increase in 2002 loss ratio reflects growth of casualty business • Catastrophe losses were relatively light in 2002 • Expense ratio reflects lower administrative expense ratio as premium growth far in excess of administrative expense growth

  14. Financial Services • 4 business units in NY and Bermuda • Financial guaranty includes municipal and structured finance bond (re)insurance; title, mortgage and trade credit reinsurance; CDO insurance and credit default swaps. • Financial solutions includes finite risk reinsurance, loss portfolio transfers, CDO insurance and other structured underwritings. Operating Earnings $ in Millions (45%) (55%)

  15. Financial Services • $81.8 billion portfolio • Muni portfolio rated A on average • Par up 4% over 2001 • Non-muni portfolio rated AA- on average • Par up 20% over 2001 • Single name corporate swap portfolio down 17% since 2001 Financial Guaranty Portfolio

  16. Consolidated • Operating segment adjusted earnings up 20% in 2002 • Debt repayment in corporate segment reduced corporate loss 6% • Consolidated adjusted operating income up 28% • Adjusted 2002 ROE 13.1% versus target of 15% Financial Summary $ in Millions

  17. Balance Sheet • Most asset changes driven by business growth and strong cash flow • Reinsurance recoverables include $1.9 billion gross increase after A&E charge Total Assets $ in Billions

  18. Investment Portfolio • $17.2 billion fixed income portfolio • $2.4 billion in consolidated cash flow supported portfolio growth • High credit quality; average rating of AA • Duration of 3.1 years • Yield of 4.4% down from 5.25% at year end 2001 $ in Millions (.5%) (4%) (5%) (8%) (49%) (17%) (17%)

  19. Investment Portfolio $ in Millions (9%) (15%) (7%) (5%) (2%) (3%) (19%) (40%)

  20. Balance Sheet • Policy liability growth due to business growth and A&E change • Total debt and preferred stock declined during year • Gain due to lower interest rates greater than unrealized losses on credit impairments, credit default swaps, equity and bond swaps Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity $ in Billions

  21. Planned Financing:Impact on Balance Sheet at 12/31/02 *To be conservative, tangible equity or tangible capital does not include credit for the preferred stock issue.

  22. Planned Financing: Impact on Leverage Ratios 1) Key Assumptions: - $500mm of perpetual preferred stock issued at 8%. - Mezzanine equity becomes common equity in Q2/03. - Preferred stock included as equity

  23. 2003 Outlook • Pricing cycle remains firm, with lower or less rate increases in some segments • Property catastrophe rates relatively stable for 2003 renewals • European pricing moved up after US; expect this to continue • Demand for terrorism coverage modest • Credit spreads remain wide

  24. 2003 Guidance • P&C net premium earned growth of 30-33% • Combined ratio excluding Financial Services of 90 – 92%, including $100 million of catastrophe losses in Global Reinsurance segment • Investment income of $845 – 865 million • Financial Services operating income growth of 15 – 20% • Interest expense of $215 – 225 million • Consolidated tax rate of 18 – 20%, although 16 – 18% in 1Q-03

  25. Brandywine Asbestos & Environmental Exposure • 1995 – Restructuring order • CIGNA agreed to $800 million reinsurance protection and a dividend retention reserve • 1999 – ACE’s acquisition of CIGNA P&C operations • Purchased $2.5 billion reinsurance protection from NICO

  26. Analysis of Reserve Adjustment $ in Millions Total Gross Reserve Addition $2,178 Ceded to Third Parties (1,327) Net Before NICO 851 Cession to NICO (533) Net Reserve Addition 318 Bad Debt Provision 145 10% ACE Bermuda Participation 53 Total Change in Reserve Need and Bad Debt $516 After Tax Charge $354

  27. Gross Brandywine Asbestos Liabilities

  28. 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Estimated Brandywine Claims Payments ACE NICO NICO 90% / ACE 10% Calendar Year Claims Payments Net of Third Party Rein. Payments ($Millions) ACE 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Year of Loss Payment

  29. Rating Agency Update:Recent Actions • S&P • On Credit Watch Negative - affirmed commercial paper rating (A2) and indicated that debt and financial strength ratings may stay the same or fall by 1 or 2 notches. Watch does not include ACE Guaranty or ACE Capital Re and subsidiaries. • Moody’s • Under Review for Possible Downgrade - indicated that debt ratings may fall by one notch. Other financial strength ratings expected to stay the sameexcept for Brandywine which is also under review.

  30. Rating Agency Update: Recent Actions • Fitch • Ratings watch negative - all debt ratings and financial strength ratings for INA Holdings subsidiaries. Brandywine and Century Indemnity downgraded from BBB to BBB-. • AM Best • Have not commented publicly. Furnished additional information on recoverables, reserves and 2003 projections.

  31. Key Financial Strength Ratings *ACE Global Markets (Syndicate 2488) has a Aa3 rating from Moody’s ACE INA UK also rated A+ by S&P.

  32. Key Debt Ratings *NR = Not rated

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