WP210

1. WP210 Marine Transportation

2. WP210 – Marine Transportation Overall objective • Establish baseline and future scenarios for ship transport/activities • Define for future scenarios; emission to air, potential discharges to sea and quantify other pollutants Specific Objectives • Establish baseline and future scenarios for ship transport/activities • Develop modelling framework for quantifying emission to air, potential discharges to sea and other pollutants • Calculate for baseline and future scenarios; emission to air, potential discharges to sea and quantify other pollutants Input required WP110, WP120, WP220, WP230 and WP240 Gives input to Theme 3 – WP310, WP320 and WP330

3. Challenges? Source: PAME, 2000

4. Polar regions- Ports and Routes Major ports and navigation routes in the Arctic, reported by PAME 2000. Vessels densities 1996. The Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). Source: Endresen et al. 2003.

5. 200 7000000 180 6000000 160 5000000 140 120 4000000 Oil shipment (tonnes) Number of vessels 100 3000000 80 60 2000000 40 1000000 20 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 Year Year Increasing oil shipment from North West Russia Source: Kystverket, http://www.kystverket.no/arch/_img/9938438.pdf

6. Task 1. WP210-1 - Define the baseline for ship transport/activities. (Leader: CNIIMF, Participants: CNIIMF, BMT) Task 2. WP210-2 - Define the future scenarios for ship transport/activities. (Leader: DNV, Participants: OF, NERSC, UC/AL) Task 3. WP210-3 – Technology and policy development. (Leader: CNIIMF, Participants: DNV, BMT) Task 4. WP210-4 – Define baseline for Emission to air. (Leader: CNIIMF, Participants: DNV, BMT) Task 5. WP210-5 – Define Emission to air for future scenarios. (Leader: DNV, Participants: CNIIMF, BMT) Sub-WP210

7. Task 6. WP210-6 – Define potential discharges to sea for the baseline. (Leader: BMT, Participants: DNV, CNIIMF) Task 7. WP210-7 – Define potential discharges to sea for the future scenarios. (Leader: BMT, Participants: DNV, CNIIMF) Task 8. WP210-8– Define the baseline for other pollutants (Leader: BMT, Participants: DNV, CNIIMF) Task 9. WP210-9 – Define future scenarios for other pollutants (Leader: BMT, Participants: DNV, CNIIMF) Task 10. WP210-10 – Holistic GIS assessment tool (Leader: DNV, Participants: NERSC Sub-WP210

8. WP210 - Overview WP210-4&5 WP210-4&5 WP210-8&9 WP210-8&9 WP210-6&7 WP210-6&7 WP210-6&7 WP210-6&7

9. Participants?

10. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SEA TRANSPORTATION, WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON OIL AND GAS SCENARIOS FOR NORWAY AND NORTHWEST RUSSIA Reference paper/projects DNV: • Projections of petroleum and shipping activities up 2015 • Modelling of energy and emission from the Arctic fleet, 2000 and 2015 Dalsøren, S. B., Endresen Ø., Gravir G., Sørgård E., and Isaksen I. S. A., Environmental impacts of the expected increase in sea transportation, with particular focus on oil and gas scenarios for Norway and for Northwest Russian,112, Journal of Geophysical Research, D02310, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006927, 2006. Sulfate wet deposition change in October 2015 due to offshore activity, NSR and oil and gas transport.

11. ArcAct-Unlocking the Arctic ocean • Goal: To quantify the climate impacts in terms of radiative forcing from increased oil/gas and shipping activities in the Arctic region (->2050) • DNV: Detailed future ship emission inventories. Based on modeling approach for ship traffic over the Arctic • New model: The future Arctic Transit shipping activity level is determined by jointly assessing the volume of global seaborne trade and the attractiveness of selecting the Arctic transit route as opposed to traditional sea routes (e.g. via Suez) Source: Elzbieta Bitner-Gregersen, Impacts of Climate change on shipping, DNVR&I presentation

12. PAME- Snap shot Analysis of Maritime Activities in the Arctic • The Norwegian Maritime Directorate and the Norwegian Ministry of Environment, produced by DNV, 2000. • Snap shot for ship activities, and the resulting air emissions, discharges to sea and other pollutions. http://www.pame.is/sidur/uploads/Norwegian_maritime_directorate.PDF

13. Quantify Goal (DNV): Modelling past, present and future ship fuel consumption and emissions (year 1900->2100). Instrument: EU, 6FP

14. Oil spill

15. Safeguarding life, property and the environment www.dnv.com

16. Relevant projects INSROP (International Northern Sea Route Programme) is a six-year (June 1993 – March 1999) international research programme designed to create an extensive knowledge base about the ice-infested shipping lanes running along the coast of the Russian Arctic from Novaya Zemlya in the west to the Bering Strait in the east. ARCDEV(Arctic Demonstration and Exploratory Voyage) is an applied research and demonstration project conducted under the Waterborne Transport Programme of the European Commission. ARCOP (Arctic Operational Platform), Technical negotiations of a new EU-funded (6 mill. euros) ARCOP (Arctic Operational Platform) Programme are underway. ARCOP is a continuation of ARCDEV, it is planned to start in February 2002, and it is coordinated by the Kværner Masa-Yards Arctic Technology Centre in Finland. COMKISS: The two main objectives of the project were: to demonstrate to major segments of the marine transport industry the benefits of integrating satellite-derived information on sea state such as wave height and direction. to raise awareness of the usefulness of satellite data in increasing the safety and overall efficiency of shipping operations. IRIS- Ice Ridging Information for Decision Making in Shipping Operations, The IRIS project is funded by the European Union,  under its 5th Framework Programme. Contract no: EVK3-CT-2002-00083,Duration: 36 Months PAME- Snap shot Analysis of Maritime Activities in the ArcticThe Norwegian Maritime Directorate and the Norwegian Ministry of Environment, produced by DNV, 2000.