1 / 22

Beyond Copenhagen and the implications for energy policies

Dieter Helm Professor of Energy Policy University of Oxford February 13 th 2010. Beyond Copenhagen and the implications for energy policies. Oxford Climate Forum. Outline. The climate change problem – unsustainable consumption and fossil fuels Kyoto – a flawed approach

kedma
Download Presentation

Beyond Copenhagen and the implications for energy policies

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Dieter Helm Professor of Energy Policy University of Oxford February 13th 2010 Beyond Copenhagen and the implications for energy policies Oxford Climate Forum

  2. Outline • The climate change problem – unsustainable consumption and fossil fuels • Kyoto – a flawed approach • Copenhagen – an accident waiting to happen • The next steps • Implications

  3. The climate change problem • Population • Economic growth • Abundant fossil fuels

  4. Population Source: United Nations Population Projections 2009

  5. Economic growth China 7-10% p.a. India 6-8% p.a. X 4 by 2050 US 2-3% p.a. Europe 2-3% p.a. X 2 by 2050

  6. Abundant fossil fuels • Coal – 200 years+ • Oil – no peak in sight • Gas – non-conventional changes the game

  7. Proved oil reserves at end 2008 Proved reserves at end 2008 Thousand million barrels Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009

  8. Proved natural gas reserves at end 2008 Proved reserves at end 2008 Trillion cubic metres Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009

  9. Proved coal reserves at end 2008 Proved reserves at end of 2008 Thousand million tonnes (anthracite and bituminous coal shown in brackets) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009

  10. Kyoto • A European treaty • 1989 collapse  CO2 emissions • Production not consumption

  11. Unsustainable consumption • Consumption  while production  in Europe •  Coal burn •  Demand for energy

  12. Copenhagen • Based on Kyoto • Assured caps would be taken by China and the US • Based upon emissions trading All take caps All trade CDM transfers the money

  13. The Copenhagen Process • Start with Utopian optimism • NGOs build up the expectations • Politicians then talk down expectations Then the world leaders turn up....

  14. The Copenhagen Accord • US and China sideline Europe • China: business as usual • US: 1990 levels by 2020 (+/- 2%) • India: no target

  15. In the US • No cap and trade yet • No EU ETS – US fungibility • No agreements unless China joins too

  16. Next steps 2 tracks: • Rebuild Copenhagen • Abandon Copenhagen

  17. Rebuild Copenhagen • A slow tortuous process • Bonn, Mexico etc. • End 2012 deadline AND it requires China / US agreement

  18. Abandon Copenhagen • Focus on consumption, not production • Carbon taxes • Border taxes • US and EU = 50% world GDP • China depends on US and European demand

  19. In the meantime.... A technological revolution: • Smart meters • Smart grids • Batteries • Smart cars • Nuclear • Renewables • CCS Demand impacts Supply impacts

  20. Implications • Current approach is (probably) doomed to fail But... There is a better way... • Consumption based • Consumption tax • Technology, technology, technology And... Prepare to adapt...

  21. Further information: • Helm, D. and Hepburn, C. (eds) (2009), The Economics and Politics of Climate Change, Oxford University Press. • Delivering a 21st Century Infrastructure for Britain, with James Wardlaw and Ben Caldecott, Policy Exchange, September 2009. • Environmental challenges in a warming world: consumption, costs and responsibilities, 2009, Tanner Lecture, February 21st. • Credible Energy Policy, Meeting the challenges of security of supply and climate change, 2008, Policy Exchange • Caps and Floors for the EU ETS: a practical carbon price, October 13th 2008 • Helm, D R, Smale, R and Phillips, J, (2007) “Too Good To Be True? The UK’s Climate Change Record”, December. http://www.dieterhelm.co.uk/publications/ http://www.dieterhelm.co.uk/publications

More Related