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Converting the Unconverted: Dispelling the False Consensus Bias

Converting the Unconverted: Dispelling the False Consensus Bias. Punam Anand Keller (http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/punam.keller/). Topics. Shed light on decision-making process Message tactics used for increasing compliance Research methods to access this information.

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Converting the Unconverted: Dispelling the False Consensus Bias

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  1. Converting the Unconverted:Dispelling the False Consensus Bias Punam Anand Keller (http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/punam.keller/)

  2. Topics • Shed light on decision-making process • Message tactics used for increasing compliance • Research methods to access this information

  3. 1. Shed light on Process OR OR

  4. Goal: Attenuate Anti-Compliance Heuristic and Motivate Systematic Processing COGNITIVE MOTIVATIONAL

  5. Low/High Level of Fear Framing (Gain/Loss) Low/High Vividness Base/Case Format Physical/Social consequences Order of Recommendations/ Consequences Self/Other Referencing Low/High Argument Strength Single/Multiple Exposures Low/High Source Credibility Tailoring/Mass Emotional/Rational Message Characteristics

  6. Research Processes • Lab experiments • Ethnography • Meta-analysis

  7. Lab Studies • Low Fear appeals are more effective for segments who are not currently saving for retirement; High Fear appeals are more effective for those who are… • Gain Frames are more effective for segments who are depressed; Loss frames are more effective for the optimistic… • Vivid presentations are more effective for less involved segments; Presentation format is less important for those who are involved… • Recommendations should appear before consequences for those who are not currently saving to prevent freezing; The reverse format is more effectives for those who are converted… • Women are more persuaded by consequences to others; Men are more persuaded by self-consequences... • Women find case presentations more compelling; Men prefer base rate presentations…

  8. Ethnography Future Better Than Past Live Today In Style Retirement Savings Children’s Education Buy a Bigger House Host Parties

  9. Ethnography • 1. Identify benefits lost due to advocated behaviors. • Loss in identity/status, image in community, enjoyment/relaxation in the short-term…. due to reduced income/increased saving… • 2. Connect same benefits to advocated behaviors. • Gain in identity/status, image in community may be replaced with volunteer work instead of spending… • Proportion of savings could be directed to a community fund or vacation in the short-term…

  10. Meta-Analysis A message to encourage Retirement Savings For African American Women over 50 Only 20% have any retirement savings Half of whom think the Govt. will bail them out, but all of who think they are in big trouble if not But are split on whether anything works or whether they can save Self-Referencing Male Communicator Gain Frame Social Consequences Case/Story .61 .90

  11. Changing Attitudes is not enough • Unconverted may have awareness, interest, attitude and even behavioral intentions, but cannot change behavior. • Cost (barriers)/benefit (gifts) tradeoff • Facilitating conditions • Responsibility • Social norms

  12. Topics • Shed light on decision-making process • Message tactics used for increasing compliance • Research methods to access this information

  13. Additional Notes

  14. Heuristics & Biases • Overconfidence • Anchoring • Availability • Probability • Mental Accounting

  15. 1. Shed light on Process Individual Differences General Attitude Towards Compliance for Saving/Risk Desired Confidence Heuristic/Systematic Message Processing, Attitude Towards Recommendations (even though they may not be read) Message Factors Available/Accessible Gap Actual Confidence Specific Attitude Towards Retirement Planning and Savings Recommendations Contextual Factors *Goal: Attenuate Anti-Compliance Heuristic and Motivate Systematic Processing

  16. Individual Differences • Gender • Age • Race • Involvement • Prior Intentions/Behavior • Threat Appraisal • Coping Appraisal • Self Regulation Orientation

  17. Context Factors • Prevention vs. Promotion • Level of controllability • Level of responsibility • Level of uncertainty

  18. 2. Role of Communications Individual Differences Cognitive Reasons Low Expectancy For Unsafe Incidents General Attitudes Toward Risk Heuristic Processing Message Factors Motivational Reasons Positive self-evaluations Unrealistic optimism Illusion of Control Specific Attitudes Toward Risk Contextual Factors

  19. 3: Role of Message Tactics Consequences: Low/Hi Threat Physical/Social Vivid/Bland Positive/Negative Base/Case Rate Low/Hi Frequency Low/Hi Controllability Self/OtherReferencing Standard/Tailored Increase expectancy for: Susceptibility Severity Cognitive Reasons: Low Expectancy For Unsafe Incidents Available/Accessible Recommendations: Low/Hi Response Effic. Low/Hi Self-Efficacy Low/Hi Costs/Barriers Low/HiFacilitators Prevention/Detection Abstract/Concrete Self/Other Referencing Approach/Avoid Low/Hi Responsibility Motivational Reasons: Positive self-evaluations, Unrealistic optimism, Illusion of Control Increase expectancy for: Response Efficacy Self-Efficacy

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