Lorraine Youds Laurence Stamford Adisa Azapagic The University of Manchester

1. Developing an integrated multi-criteria decision-support framework for the sustainability assessment of nuclear power Lorraine Youds Laurence Stamford Adisa Azapagic The University of Manchester lorraine.youds@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk

2. Agenda • Context within the SPRIng project • Aims and objectives • Stakeholder engagement • Multi-criteria decision-analysis • Results • Further work Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

3. SPRIng Project • Aim: To develop an integrated decision-support framework to assess the sustainability of nuclear power, taking into account the following aspects: - technical (e.g. availability of the technology) - economic (e.g. life cycle costs of technologies) - environmental (e.g. GHG emissions) - social and governance (e.g. employment) Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

4. Decision-Support Framework UNTF, 15th April 2010 Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester

5. Specific Objectives • Objectives: - assessment of the sustainability of energy options within the UK - sustainability assessment of nuclear power in an integrated UK energy mix - communication of results to stakeholders and integration of stakeholder preferences into the framework Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

6. Decision-Support Framework Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

7. Stakeholder Engagement ‘Test’ work already developed on stakeholders Ask them what they’d expect out of our work Which issues are particularly important to them (preference elicitation) Multi-criteria decision-analysis Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

8. Source: Stamford & Youds (2010) Stakeholder Questionnaire 1 – not important; 4 – very important Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

9. SPRIng Partners Academic partnersOther partners & collaborators The University of Manchester AMEC NNC City University AREVA NP University of Southampton Battelle British Energy British Nuclear Energy Society Chatham House BERR Foreign & Commonwealth Office HSE Ministry of Defence Nexia Solutions SERCO The London Press Club UKERC University of Sheffield Westinghouse Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

10. Questionnaire Analysis • Least valued sustainability indicators identified • Combine stakeholders into industry, regulator and organisation groups to identify any correlations Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

11. Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis • Organisation of vast, complex and conflicting information • Allows all criteria to be taken into account • Stages involved: - Problem Structuring (formulation) - Problem Analysis (evaluation) - Problem Resolution (appraisal) – Requisite? Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

12. Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis • Multi-attribute value analysis: - score each alternative against each indicator (this standardises the units of measurement) - apply stakeholder weights to each indicator score - add up the weighted scores for each indicator under an alternative Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

13. Source: Stamford & Youds (2010) Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Stakeholder 1 Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

14. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Source: Stamford & Youds (2010) Stakeholder 2 Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

15. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis:Sensitivity Analysis Source: Stamford & Youds (2010) Stakeholder 1 Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010

16. Further Work Future UK energy scenario modelling Sustainability assessments Further stakeholder engagement and preference elicitation Multi-criteria decision-analysis Lorraine Youds, The University of Manchester UNTF, 15th April 2010