UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis and Impact on Policy

UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis and Impact on Policy Robert T. Watson Defra 24th April 2012

2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK • How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy • Next steps 2

We first published the 2050 Calculator in July 2010. It provides a platform for an ‘energy literate debate’ 3

We have since developed different formats of the Calculator - appropriate for different audiences 2050 Analysis Product My2050 Web Tool Excel Spreadsheet • Educational tool • and initial engagement for members of the public • Technical expert stakeholders • and well-informed public • Technical expert stakeholders • and policy-makers Audience Complexity 4

The Calculator allows you to pick your own 2050 Pathway and compare it with those from others • Over 20 000 people submitted their preferred My2050 worlds to DECC • My2050 has had over 100 000 unique users (Average engagement time is 15 minutes). • Next to the 2050 Pathways from HMG, Pathways from different organisations are published on the webtool, such as: • Friends of the Earth • Campaign to Protect Rural England • National Grid • Atkins • Journalists • DECC Blog discussion between experts and the public • Excel spreadsheet used in several academic and research studies to test different assumptions

Climate Change Act 2008 sets out a clear legal framework for emissions reductions in the UK • Ambitious targets to reduce emissions • Legally binding carbon budgets and 2050 target • A clear accountability framework MRV / CCC reports to Parliament

The Climate Change Act triggered a long term low carbon strategy; culminating in the Carbon Plan (December 2011) Before DECC Government’s approach was fragmented and didn’t sufficiently recognise the interdependencies between climate change and energy policy December 2011: Durban December 2010: Cancun November 2009: Copenhagen • DECC’s strategy works to head off two risks: • Catastrophic climate change • Failure of secure, safe and affordable energy supplies for the UK 2008: Climate Change Act introduced legally binding carbon budgets and aim to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050

Carbon Budgets ensure that the UK will reduce emissions by 34% by 2020 and 50% by Carbon Budget 4 9

Using the 2050 Calculator, HMG published four ‘2050 Futures’ in the Carbon Plan

The ‘2050 Futures’ give a range for each technology in 2050. The Carbon Plan sets out how HMG will deliver this range. Per capita UK energy demand has to be reduced by at least a third. Electricity demand will increase around 29% to 60% At least 65% of UK cars need to be ultra-low emissions vehicles in 2050 Bioenergy demand will at minimum threefold from today, but could be much higher

For each sector the Carbon Plan sets out ambitions for deployment out to 2027 and the range to 2050. 12

For some technologies it will be cost effective to ensure early deployment. 13

The Carbon Plan emphasises the Government’s desire to build a coalition for change in order to drive the innovation we need to decarbonise Industry Government Public The public will need to adopt the technologies and lifestyle choices to save money and carbon Industry will need to develop innovative new business models and technologies Governments will support the transition by providing the right frameworks for investment

Domestically we are looking at refining the Pathways analysis and using it for public engagement • Refining the 2050 Calculator: • Call for Evidence on cost and air quality • Update baseline from 2007 to 2010 • Historical data incorporated • Extending the outreach: • Publish My2050 schools toolkit • My2050 simulation rolled out to schools and universities and public opinion testing • 2050 Picture competition with National Geographic for Kids 16

Internationally we are beginning to look at outreach opportunities • Supporting other regions and countries in adopting the 2050 Calculator approach • We received interest from several partners, which are moving the open-sourced analysis forward: • Walloon 2050 Pathways study with fully refined and improved Calculator. This will inform/influence a new project on Low Carbon Pathway analysis for the whole of Belgium. • Chinese Government Energy Resource Institute adapting analysis for own purposes. • Possible additional 2050 Calculator work in Bangladesh, New Zealand, others • Ideas to develop a global model • Concept to develop a Global Energy and Emissions Calculator with international partners in private and public sectors 17

THANK YOU! www.decc.gov.uk/2050 http://my2050.decc.gov.uk/ Katherine.Randall@decc.gsi.gov.uk

ANNEX

The Calculator allows you to pick your own pathway – and the Carbon Plan provided some potential Government scenarios Cost Optimised Renewables; more efficient Nuclear; less efficient CCS; more bioenergy 33 GW nuclear 18 GW wind 28 GW CCS 27 GW other renew 33 GW gas 20 GW nuclear 34 GW wind 40 GW CCS 2 GW hydro No back-up gas 16 GW nuclear 82 GW wind 13 GW CCS 14 GW solar 10 GW marine 24 GW back-up gas 75 GW nuclear 20 GW wind 2 GW CCS 2 GW hydro 11 GW back-up gas Electricity Heating mix of heat pumps, resistive heat, biomass pellets, district heat 7.7m SWIs, 8.8m CWIs, 100% house-level heating systems 5.6m SWIs, 6.9m CWIs, 50% house-level heating systems, 50% network-level 5.6m SWIs, 6.9m CWIs, 90% house-level heating systems, 10% network-level Buildings 65% ULEVs, 35% ICEs, medium modal shift 100% ULEVs, high modal shift 80% ULEVs, 20% ICEs, low modal shift 75% ULEVs, unclear on modal shift Transport Medium growth, 48% of emissions captured by CCS Medium growth, 0% of emissions captured by CCS Medium growth, 48% of emissions captured by CCS Medium growth, over half of emissions captured by CCS Industry 471 TWh of bioenergy, medium ambition on land mgmt ~350 TWh of bioenergy, low ambition on land mgmt 181 TWh of bioenergy, low ambition on land mgmt 461 TWh of bioenergy, high ambition on land mgmt Bioenergy and land use

UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis and Impact on Policy