季明明 Ji Mingming Bandung Indonesia 4-5 De C 2013

1. 亚洲企业大学战略合作平台打造与世界发展新机遇把握Establishment of Strategic Co-operation Platform of Asian Corporate University And Seizing New Opportunities From World’s Development 季明明 Ji Mingming Bandung Indonesia 4-5 DeC 2013 1

2. 1. “系统思考”是企业提升学习力的一门重要课程“Systematic Thinking” Is An Important Class For An Enterprise To Improve Learning Capacity Peter Senge in his book, the Fifth Discipline, described the “systematic thinking” which is the most important, it is the key practice to promote learning capacity and innovation of an enterprise. 彼得.圣吉5项修炼中，第5项修炼“系统思考”最为重要，是提升企业学习力、创新力的关键性修炼。 2

3. 2. 企业当前落实“系统思考”，必须首先准确把握世界特别是亚洲的经济新形势In order to practice “systematic thinking”, we must keep control of the world’s especially Asian economic situation This is one of the most important objectives that all corporate universities need to learn. Hold and keep control of the world’s and regional economic situation and order are essential for an enterprise to capture new opportunities. 这是当前所有企业大学必须学习的一项重要内容。 深入把握世界和地区经济发展新形势、新规律，对于企业把握新机遇具有十分重要的意义。 3

4. 2.1 世界正面临两件重大历史性事件World’s Two Historical Events Are Coming First one: the world’s industrial structure has undergone great changes. 2.1.1 第一件大事是新一轮产业结构大调整 4

5. 2.1.2 新兴经济体国家都面临“中等收入陷阱”New Economies Are Falling Into “Middle-Income Trap”如果不转变发展方式和提升创新能力，经济将停滞不前Economy Will Be Stagnant if We Don’t Change Development Mode and Also Promote Innovation Capacity Industrialization has been promoted for 200 years, if we take real GDP3000 USD per capita as a measurement, only about 40 countries completed industrialization promotion. 人类推进工业化200年以来，以人均GDP3000美元作为标准衡量， 全球只有40多个国家完成了工业化进程。 5

6. 中国2010年出口产品中，中等技术以下占比高达67%，高技术产品仅占5%In 2010, Secondary Technical Product Takes 67% of Chinese Exports, High Technics Only Take 5% 6

7. 印度尼西亚是生产咖啡大国，但是人们仅知道星巴克Indonesia Is A Global Coffee Producer, Starbucks Is Also Very Popular 印尼的研发投入占GDP 0.72%, Investment of R&D of Indonesia takes 0.72% of GDP 马来西亚占2.6%， In Malaysia, it takes 2.6% 而新加坡为6.3%。 Singapore takes 6.3% 7

8. 马来西亚是生产和出口棕榈油大国，但是人们仅知道西方品牌高级化妆品，至于生产出口初级原材料的马来西亚已经不重要。马来西亚是生产和出口棕榈油大国，但是人们仅知道西方品牌高级化妆品，至于生产出口初级原材料的马来西亚已经不重要。 • People only concern about the luxury cosmetics in western countries, however, Malaysia, the main production and export country of palm oil, was never mentioned.

9. 新兴经济体企业亟待转型升级The Emerging Economies Need To Be Transitioning And Upgrading 在国际产业链分工中，发达国家长期处于顶端，从中获得巨大收益。 Under the division of labor of international industrial chain, developed countries always stay on top and gain enormous profit. 苹果平板电脑案例：2010年每台市场售价为499美元。 Take IPad as a case study: the sales price is $499 in 2010. 其中收益分配： The disposition of income: 苹果公司占30.1%， Apple company takes 30.1% 发达国家分包商占17.6%， The sub-contractor in developed countries takes 17.6% 原材料与零部件成本占30.9%， The cost of raw materials and components and parts take 30.9% 批发与零售商占15%， The wholesalers and retailers take 15% 作为组装者的新兴经济体企业劳动力成本只占总价值的1.6%。 The cost of labor of emerging economies only takes 1.6% ——人民日报2013年9月16日 9

10. 2.1.3 当前世界经济发展对于新兴经济存在不利因素Current Situation of the World’s Economic Developed Is Unfavorable For Emerging Economies International Financial Crisis has bottomed out. The rising marks are: 国际金融危机已经走出低谷。其突出标志是： First, the real estate market in the U.S and other developed countries is showing sign of recovery, which has built the foundation for families and financial institution to mitigate the situation of assets and liabilities. 一是美国等发达国家房地产市场开始触底回升， 为家庭与金融机构改善资产负债状况奠定了基础。 10

11. Second, the stock market in the developed countries has regained the peak before the explosion of financial crisis (the DJI has reached 16000 point on Nov. 21st, 2013, it will be the best performance if this momentum could be maintained). 二是发达国家股票市场大多已经恢复或超过金融危机爆发前的最高 （2013年11月21日，道琼斯指数首次达到16000点，如果年内能够 保持此势头，则成为2003年以来最为强劲的表现）。 11

12. 当前美国等发达国家房地产市场开始触底回升，股市大涨，又开始发展制造业。当前美国等发达国家房地产市场开始触底回升，股市大涨，又开始发展制造业。 The current real estate market in the U.S and western countries is recovering, the stock market rebounds, and they start developing the manufacturing industry. 12

13. Third, the real economy of most developed countries has shown sign of recovery except Euro. But this does not mean that the debt problems have been solved. On the contrary, it just means that the private debt has been transferred to government debt problem. 三是除了欧元区外，多数发达国家的实体经济已经明显复苏。但这并不意味着真正解决了债务问题。相反，它只是把私人债务转嫁到政府身上。 13

14. 发达国家正在将金融危机损失嫁祸于新兴经济体The Development Countries Are Shifting Blames On Emerging Economies With The Lost Of Financial Crisis The only way for developed countries to get out of trouble is the policy of quantitative easing and low interest rates, finally eliminating the sovereign debt and reaching the normal level with cost free. 发达国家摆脱困境出路是伴随量化宽松与低利率政策，推高通货膨胀率，最终把主权债务消化掉，几乎无成本地降低到正常水平。 14

15. The result is that the direction of international capital movement will be reversed. The weakness of stock market and exchange market of the emerging economies has shown the existence of risk on the first half of this year. Once the risk become true, the emerging economies will be the belated victim considering the present stage of financial crisis. 其结果是，国际资本流动的方向可能发生逆转。今年上半年新兴经济体股市、汇市集体走弱已经证明了这种风险的存在。一旦这种风险成为现实，金融危机发展到现阶段，新兴经济体将会成为迟来的受害者。 15

16. 面对新机遇，发达国家又抢占先机，力图走在最前面Facing New Opportunities, Developed Countries Are Taking Early Moves 2008年前，发达国家过渡消费，搞虚拟经济模式，实体经济空心化，爆发金融危机，给人类带来了灾难。 Before 2008, the developed countries over consumed, virtual economy mode and real economy hollowing out caused the financial crisis. 16

17. 新兴经济体又将成为发达国家贸易保护的受害者The Emerging Economies Become The Victim Of The Trade Protection Of Developed Countries In order to overcome the impact of financial crisis, developed countries implement reindustrialization policy, encouraging domestic companies to move the factories back, avoiding overseas investment. Hence, the investment protectionism has risen. 为尽快摆脱金融危机影响，发达国家实施“再工业化”政策，鼓励本国企业将工厂搬回国内，避免在海外投资。由此，因而出现投资保护主义。 The tendency of industrial transfer emerged world-wide, the emerging economies must improve and upgrade their products to maintain the international competitiveness. 全球范围出现的这种产业转移大趋势，新兴经济体企业务必须将自身产品升级改造，才能形成国际竞争力。 17

18. 国际金融危机深层次影响仍未消除，跨境金融风险不可忽视The Deep-Seated Impact Of International Financial Crisis Is Still Reverberating, The Cross-Border Financial Risk Can Not Be Ignored With the increase of external risk and pressure of Asia-Pacific emerging market economies, the turbulence financial market and the slowing growth of economy, changing the development mode and adjusting the economic structure is the only way out. 亚太新兴市场经济体面临外部风险和压力增大，金融市场波动，经济增速放缓 。转变发展方式，调整经济结构是唯一的出路。 18

19. 2.1.4 当前亚洲经济发展情况The Current Situation Of Asia Economy 汇丰银行亚洲经济研究部主管诺伊曼说： 亚洲当前出口表现落后于全球工业周期，这是非常罕见的，曾经受到西方央行宽松货币政策支持的亚洲经济体忽视了能够改善长期经济前景的结构性优化”。 19

20. 亚洲经济发展情况仍然不应乐观However, The Situation Of Asian Economic Development Shall Not Be Considered Optimistic The momentum of Asian economic resurgence is still lagging behind developed countries. 2013年11月2日美国《华尔街日报》报道：“亚洲经济复苏势头不及欧美发达世界”。 20

21. 新兴经济体所面临困难和问题The Difficulties and Problems Emerging Economies Are Facing The Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia declares that being affected by the slowdown of export and government expenditures, the growth rate has reduced to 6.02% in the first 3 months of 2013, which is the lowest point over the past two years. 印度尼西亚中央统计局今年5月宣布，受出口和政府支出增速放缓影响，印尼2013年前三个月经济增速降至6.02%，为两年来的最低点。 ——人民日报2013年9月16日 21

22. 2.2 第二件大事是新一轮科技革命正在到来The Second Event is Technological Revolution Is Coming The similarities of each industrial revolution is that they are all triggered bycombination of new telecom technology and renewable sources. 历次“工业革命”共同特点由新型通信技术与新型能源体系相结合所引发。 22

23. 第一次工业革命由英国领导The Great Britain Leaded The First Industrial Revolution主要特征是：蒸汽动力加印刷通讯技术Main Characteristics: Steam Power and Printing and Communication Techniques 23

24. 第二次工业革命由美国领导The U.S. Leaded The Second Industrial Revolution主要特征是：石油能源加电报、电话通讯技术Main Characteristics: Oil Energy, Telegraphy and Telephone Communication Techniques 24

25. 第三次工业革命主要特征是：新能源加互联网技术Main Characteristics of The Third Industrial Revolution: Renewable Sources and Internet Techniques 25 25

26. 用3D打印机制作出的立体人像。 3D Portraits making by 3D Printer 3D打印机是互联网技术与新能源组合的典范 是第三次工业革命的标志性产物3-Dimensional Printer Is An Example of Combination of Network Techniques and Renewable Sources, and The Outcome Of The Third Industrial Revolution 2012年，全球3D打印机市场规模已达22亿美元。 In 2012, the world’s market volume of 3D printer has reached 2.2 billion USD 26

27. 2.3 世界正在进入“云物大智”科技革命新时代The World Is Entering into A New Generation Called Cloud Computing Cloud Computing is another revolution after personal computers and internet information technology. 云计算（Cloud Computing）是继个人电脑、互联网后信息技术的又一次革命。 27

28. Humans are entering the age of “Big Data”. Data on the internet will be annually increased by 50%, this number will be doubled every two years, 90% of the data in the world is produced in recent years. ——“大数据”人类进入“大数据”时代。互联网上数据每年增长50%，每两年便翻一番，目前世界上90%以上的数据是最近几年才产生的。 28

29. “Internet of Things” will make the internet full of management systems, and achieve digital management through the sensor. ——“物联网”将使网络布满管理系统，通过传感器，实现管理的全数字化。 29

30. “Smart Systems”: Intelligent network, Smart city, Smart Planet will change Human’s life. ——“智能系统”：智能网络、智慧城市、智慧地球将改变人类的命运。 30

31. 3. 新兴经济体国家与发达国家都想抢占世界价值链的高端Both New Economies and Developed Countries Want to Move Up to The Value Chain 一流企业做标准 First Class Enterprise Create Standard 二流企业做品牌 Second Class Enterprise Make Brand 三流企业做产品 Third Class Enterprise Build Product 31 31

32. 当前，发达国家发展的绝不是传统制造业的翻版，而是把握世界新一轮科技革命机遇，发展以3D打印机为代表的现代制造业。这将抢占价值链的高端。当前，发达国家发展的绝不是传统制造业的翻版，而是把握世界新一轮科技革命机遇，发展以3D打印机为代表的现代制造业。这将抢占价值链的高端。 However, developed countries are not just copying the traditional manufacturing industry, they are seizing the opportunities of the world’s technology revolution, developing modern manufacturing industry like 3D printer. They will take the higher end of the value chain. 32

33. 牢牢把握中国机遇是亚洲和新兴经济体发展的重大战略抉择Asia Takes A Special Economic Status In the World Asia is still the leader of global economy --Knoop Singh, director of IMF Asia-Pacific Unit, Oct. 11th, 2013 2.2.1 亚洲仍然是全球经济领跑者 ——2013年10月11日，IMF亚太部主管阿努普·辛格 33

34. The former Minister of Finance of the U.S showed his confidence in Chinese economic reform and pointed out: “the prospect of Chinese economic reform has never been as good as this. 美国前财长部长保尔森对中国经济改革很有信心，指出：“中国经济改革的前景从未如目前一样良好。” 34

35. 4.1 改革开放使中国经济快速发展The Reform and Open-up Promoted The Development Of Chinese Economy ——人民日报2013年11月21日 35

36. 中国GDP首次超过50万亿The achievement of Chinese Economic Development After Reforming and Opening-up For 35 Years: GDP Exceeded 50,000 Billion RMB GDP由1978年的3645亿元，跃升至2012年的51.89万亿元人民币； GDP increased from 364.5 billion RMB to 51,890 billion RMB, from the year of 1978 to 2012; 经济总量从1978年居世界的第10位，到2010年的第2位； The economic aggregate gained the second place from the year of 1978 to 2010; 人均GDP从1978年的381元，到2012年的38420元人民币； The average per person GDP increased from 381RMB to 38,420RMB, from the year of 1978 to 2010 外汇储备从1978年的1.67亿美元、居世界第38位，到2012年的3.3万亿美元、连续7年稳居世界第1位…… 36

37. 1979年到2012年，中国GDP年均增长9.8%，而同期世界经济年均增速只有2.8%。From 1979 to 2012, The Average Annual Increment Of China’s GDP Is 9.8%, While At The Same Period The Average Increment Of Global Economy Is Only 2.8%.“中国高速增持续时间和增长速度都超过了经济起飞时期日本和亚洲‘四小龙”“The Duration and Speed of Sustainable Growth of China Have Exceeded Japan and The Asia Four Tigers ” 37

38. 中国财政收入比30多年前增加了103倍The Fiscal Revenue Of China Has Increased 103 times Compared With 30 Years Ago 38

39. 4.2 中国是拉动亚洲和世界经济增长重要力量China is An Important Strength To Stimulate World’s Economic Gorwth30多年来中国经济占世界经济总量由1.8%，增加到11.5%The Percentage That China’s Economy Takes In the World’s Economic Aggregate Has Increased From 1.8% to 11.5% 39

40. 2008年金融危机以来中国成为拉动世界经济复苏重要引擎，2008年金融危机以来中国成为拉动世界经济复苏重要引擎， China became the engine that drove to the recovery of the world’s economy since the financial crisis exploded in 2008. 2008—2012年中国对世界经济增长年均贡献率超过20%。 The contribution rate to the world’s economic growth has reached more than 20% since 2008 to 212 ——人民日报2013年11月22日 40

41. 中国是亚洲经济腾飞发动机，对亚洲经济增长贡献率超50%China Is The Engine That Leads The Economic Takeoff Of Asia, The Contribution Rate To Asian Economic Growth Exceeds 50% Since the new century, the trade volume between China and Surrounding Countries increased from more than 100 billion dollars to 1,300 billion dollars. 新世纪以来，我国同周边国家贸易额由1000多亿美元增至1.3万亿美元。 41

42. 中国已成为周边国家最大贸易伙伴、最大出口市场、重要投资来源地。中国已成为周边国家最大贸易伙伴、最大出口市场、重要投资来源地。 China has become the largest trade partners, the biggest export market and the most important investors to the surrounding countries. 2012年，我国与周边国家贸易额超过了与欧洲、美国的贸易额之和。 In 2012, the trade volume between China and Surrounding Countries exceeded the sum of the trade volume between China and U.S and Western Countries. 42

43. 亚洲开发银行副首席经济学家庄巨忠指出：Juzhong Zhuang, Vice Chief Economist Of Asian Development Bank Pointed Out: “In recent years, China has become the one of resources of foreign capital investment and foreign tourists, China is the key driver of national economic growth of emerging markets. China will contribute to 67% of national economic growth of emerging markets.” “近年来，中国也已经成为许多亚洲国家外资流入和外国游客的主要来源之一，中国是亚洲新兴市场国家经济增长的关键动力。预计，2013年亚洲新兴市场国家经济增长中的67%都要归功于中国。” 43

44. 已在华外资企业实现利润在中国所有企业中名列前茅Profit Of Foreign Enterprises in China Has Been Among Top Rank In All Enterprises In China 2013年1-6月，中国规模以上工业企业实现利润25836.6亿人民币，增长11.1%。其中： From Jan. to Jun, 2013, the industrial enterprises in China realized profit of 2583.66 billion RMB, the increment is 11.1%. Among these: 国有及国有控股企业增长-------------4.8% State-owned enterprise and state holding enterprise increased-------4.8% 集体企业增长-----------------------------1.2% Collectively-owned Enterprise increased------1.2% 股份制企业组织--------------------------9.1% Joint equity enterprise increased-------9.1% 外商及境外企业增长-------------------14.8% Foreign business and overseas corporations increased------------14.8% 私营企业增长-----------------------------15.8% privately-run enterprise increased--------15.8%

45. 4.3 中国新一届领导人对东南亚推行开明政策Chinese New Leadership Implements Liberal Policy to Southeast Nations 45

46. 习近平于2013年10月24日在中国与周边外交工作座谈会上强调：On the diplomatic meeting between China and surrounding countries on Oct 24th, 2013, Jinping Xi emphasized that: We need to treat our surrounding countries sincerely, conduct the cooperation work with surrounding countries based upon reciprocity and mutual benefit principle, let surrounding countries benefit from China’s development and get help from the mutual development with surrounding countries. 要诚心诚意对待周边国家，要本着互惠互利原则同周边国家开展合作，让周边国家得益于我国发展，使我国也从周边国家共同发展中获得助力。 46

47. 中国进一步加强与周边国家经济合作China Is Willing To Strength The Economic Cooperation With Surrounding Countries The trade volume with Malaysia reaches to 160 billion dollars in 2017 (94.8 billion dollars in 2012)’ 与马来西亚贸易额2017年为1600亿美元（2012年为948亿）； The trade volume with Indonesia reaches to 80 billion dollars in 2015 (66 billion dollars in 2012); 与印度2015年为800亿美元（ 2012年为660亿）； The trade volume with Vietnam reaches to 60 billion dollars in 2015 (41 billion dollars in 2012); 与越南2015年为600亿美元（ 2012年为410亿）； The trade volume with Thailand reaches to 100 billion dollars in 2015. 与泰国2015年为1000亿美元 47

48. 中国企业对国外投资大幅度增加The Foreign Investment Of Chinese Companies Increased Significantly According to the data from China’s Ministry of Commerce, between Jan to Sep in this year, Chinese companies has invested in 156 countries and regionals, accumulatively realizing non-financial outward investment of 61.64 billion dollars, the year-on-year growth reached 17.4% 中国商务部数据，今年1—9月，中国企业共对156个国家和地区进行直接投资，累计实现非金融类直接投资616.4亿美元，同比增长17.4%。 48

49. 4.4 东南亚和亚洲要与中国联动发展 Weicai Cai, Vice Chairman of Thailand Kasikorn Bank Pointed Out：“The financial crisis in 1997 had left a profound lesson for Southeast Asian Nations: the U.S and Western Markets are not reliable, the only way to enhance economic resistibility is to bundle with Chinese Market, strength economic relations with China and reduce the dependence of export market to the U.S and Western Markets”. 泰国开泰银行第一副总裁蔡伟才 指出： “1997年亚洲金融危机给东南亚国家留下了深刻教训：欧美市场不太可靠，只有和中国市场捆绑在一起，加强同中国的经济联系，减少对欧美出口市场的依赖，才能增强东亚经济的抵抗力。” 49

50. 4.4.1 中国城镇化为亚洲企业带来极大的商机Chinese Urbanization Brings Huge Commercial Opportunities To Asia By 2025, the number of megacities in China will be increased to 220, while there are only 35 megacities in Europe. 到2025年，中国拥有百万人以上城市将增加到220多个，但是整个欧洲这样的城市仅35个。 50