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08 December 2008

New Perspectives on Climate Change Research in Brazil Carlos Nobre Center for Earth System Science National Institute for Space Research – INPE and Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change. 08 December 2008. Contents ….

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08 December 2008

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  1. New Perspectives on Climate Change Research in Brazil Carlos Nobre Center for Earth System Science National Institute for Space Research – INPE and Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change 08 December 2008

  2. Contents … • Introduction: the role of S&T for sustainable development • New research programs on climate change in Brazil: • FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change • Climate Change Research Network – Rede CLIMA • National Institute for Climate Change Research • Conclusion: the National Climate Change Plan

  3. Regional Shift in Emissions Share Kyoto Protocol 62% 57% 53% 49.7% 50.3% 43% 47% 38% Current Kyoto Protocol Entered into Force Percentage of Global Annual Emissions Kyoto Protocol Adopted • Top Emitters • 1. China • USA • 4.Russia • 3. India UNFCCC J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication

  4. SRES (2000) aver. growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 2007 2006 2005 Observed 2000-2007 3.5% Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios (Avgs.) • Top Emitters • 1. China • USA • 4.Russia • 3. India Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project (2008)

  5. 20% Inventory of Brazilian Emissions by Sector (CO2-eq) Energy Land Use Change Agriculture 1% of GDP 30% of GDP Considering GWP of CH4 = 21

  6. Contributions of Brazilian research institutions to the science of climate change Number of articles by geographical coverage - 2002 - 2007 Selection of published articles with key words “climate change”in based on 20 journals (e.g., Science, Nature, PNAS, J. Climate, Climatic Change etc.), during the last 5 years (2003-2007). Average Brazilian contributions is 2% (all areas)

  7. Can Tropical Countries become fully developed in the 21st Century following sustainable pathways?

  8. Pathways for Earth Sustainability in BrazilThe role of S&T The challenge of our generation is to invent a new development paradigm for the Global Tropics, based on S&T, recognizing that rational use of their abundant renewable natural resources and biodiversity can be the key factor for development. This new development paradigm must rest upon a robust capacity to observe and model the Earth System.

  9. The time has come for Global Climate Change Research in Brazil …Why is it important? • Over 50% of Brazil’s GDP is dependent on renewable natural resources (agriculture, hydropower, etc.) • Large vulnerable populations to extremes of climate and weather (farmers in semi-arid Northeast Brazil and poor urban population) • Many other vulnerabilities • Unlike other rapidly developing countries, it is quite feasible to reduce emissions

  10. Challenges for Brazilian Research Programs on Climate Change in the Next Decade • Detection and attribution of causes of climate change • Understanding of global biogeochemical cycles • Natural climate variability versus climate change • Global climate system models and scenarios • Strategies to mitigate emissions of Greenhouse gases in Brazil • Key vulnerabilities to climate change • Increase in adaptative capacity

  11. The science of global climate change: major challenges • Quantification of systemic risks • Reduction of uncertainties of projections and turning them more relevant at the regional scales and for adaptation (e.g., projections of extremes) • Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research • Radically new decarbonization technologies

  12. Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”

  13. Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA” • Established at the end of 2007 by the Ministry of S&T to expand the knowledge basis on climate change, impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilty and mitigation • Main Goal: increase Brazil’s capacity to cope with the challenges of global environmental change • It will articulate over 50 research groups in Brazil covering a broad range of interdisciplinary research on all dimensions of global environmental change • Budget: US$ 15 million over 3 years to start implementation • It involves initially 10 interconnected themes

  14. Themes of “Rede CLIMA” with Focal Points Biodiversity and Ecossistems MPEG, Belém Water Resources UFPE, Recife Regional Development UnB, Brasília Cities and Industry Unicamp, Campinas Renewable Energy COPPE / UFRJ, RJ Agriculture EMBRAPA, Campinas Human Health Fiocruz, RJ Economy of Climate Change USP, São Paulo Climate Modeling INPE Coastal Zones FURG, Rio Grande

  15. New Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change Research ... This new system will be the 6th most powerful in the world in climate change research by mid-2009 FNDCT - US$ 15 M FAPESP - US$ 7.5M It will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 10 km !

  16. The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research

  17. The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research • Competitive Call for Proposals for National Institutes of S&T (INCT): US$ 250 M; 101 INCTs selected • The National Institute for Climate Change: - 26 research projects covering the science of climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors - 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved - US$ 3.5 M (+ US$ 5 M from Rede CLIMA) for 3 years

  18. GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

  19. Collective effort to develop the Brazilian Climate System Model Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Around 2000 Mid 2000s Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Ocean & Sea-Ice Ocean & Sea-Ice Ocean & Sea-Ice The Climate System Sulphate Sulphate Sulphate Aerosol Aerosol Aerosol Non-sulphate Non-sulphate Aerosol Aerosol Carbon Cycle Carbon Cycle Dynamic Vegetation Atmospheric Chemistry

  20. Development of a Global Climate System Model • Two-pronged approach: (i) full use of experience of CPTEC and (ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad • Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building block • Add components: dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle; ocean carbon cycle; enhanced sea ice and pack ice; GHG and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, etc. • 5 year project with engagement of many modeling groups in Brazil • Capacity development in many areas

  21. Brazil’s participation in IPCC AR5 global climate model simulations • International collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad: Hadley Centre and NCAR-ORNL, and others likely • Design of simulations to add value to IPCC AR5 ensembles: higher ensemble sizes, higher resolution, different modules and/or physics, chemistry, vegetation, etc. • Simulations to be carried out in Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputing Facility at INPE (likely from last quarter of 2009 through the fist quarter of 2011) • Open data policy access for all simulations

  22. FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change

  23. FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change • Carefully thought-out research plan (2 years) • Long term research Program: 10 years warranted • First Call for Proposals launched: US$ 7.5 million • Two-pronged Call for Proposals: • US$ 6 million on scientific basis, impacts, and mitigation themes • US$ 1.5 million to develop the Brazilian Global Climate System Model (4 years) • Contribution to the development of a full-fledged Earth System Model • Supercomputer facility and support for model use and development

  24. Development of a Brazilian Global Climate System Model • A single proposal will be selected • Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo State institution (but engaging institutions from all over Brazil and from abroad) • Build-up of existing experience and models developed in Brazil • Applied to climate change research • No “black-box” solution accepted • Aims at developing capacity in all components of Global Climate System Model • Strongly associated to PhD training • Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M

  25. National Climate Change Plan • Federal Government has launched a National Climate Change Plan • Climate Change Fund to be established: estimates of US$ 400 million/year for adaptation, mitigation and S&T development • Rede CLIMA, INCT for Climate Change and the FAPESP Program (and other research programs being established) will form the pillar for the R&D portion of the National Climate Change Plan

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