1 / 17

Global Development Finance 1999 Main Messages

Global Development Finance 1999 Main Messages. Global Economic Environment Main Messages. Global output slowdown deeper than anticipated Developing countries terms of trade, exports, external finance deteriorate Recession-level growth likely in 1999

keithadams
Download Presentation

Global Development Finance 1999 Main Messages

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Global Development Finance 1999Main Messages

  2. Global Economic EnvironmentMain Messages • Global output slowdown deeper than anticipated • Developing countries terms of trade, exports, external finance deteriorate • Recession-level growth likely in 1999 • Downside risks: Japan, Brazil, U.S. stock market, protectionism

  3. World industrial production(3-month moving average, y/y) Percent Note: World = developing countries + G-7 + other industrial countries + Asian NIEs. Source: Datastream and DECPG staff estimates.

  4. Export growth for World, Latin America and Asia Crisis 4 Countries*(current US$, 3-month moving average, y/y)

  5. 100 75 50 25 US$ billions 0 -25 -50 -75 -100 All developing countries East Asia and Pacific Latin America and Caribbean Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and World Bank 1996 1997 1998 Current account balances, 1996-1998

  6. Price index for energy and non-energy commodities Source: World Bank.

  7. Private Capital FlowsMain Messages • Capital market financing deteriorated further in 1998 • Enhanced risk perceptions likely to slow recovery of flows • FDI resilient in face of financial crisis • Financial crisis reduced prospects for growth in FDI flows

  8. Net flows from international capital markets to developing countries US$ billions 160 140 120 100 Loans 80 Bonds 60 Portfolio equity flows 40 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 a Source: Debtor Reporting System

  9. Spreads on Brady Bonds & U.S. high yield bonds Basis points 1800 1800 1400 1400 Brady Bond Spread 1000 1000 600 600 US High Yield Bond Spread 200 200 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Source: Bloomberg and World Bank

  10. US$ billions 1998 1997 Monthly averages: emerging market bond financing versus bank lending 20 Bond financing Bank lending 15 10 5 0 1st Half 2nd Half Jan-Apr May-Jul Aug-Sep Oct-Dec Source: Euromoney Bondware / Loanware and World Bank

  11. FDI flows to developing countries, and their share of global FDI, 1991-98 Source: World Bank Debt Reporting System

  12. FDI flows by region Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System

  13. FDI flows to crises countries US$ billions 7 Indonesia 6 5 Malaysia 4 Thailand 3 2 1 Philippines Rep. Of Korea 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: World Bank Debt Reporting System a. Preliminary

  14. Official Flows and Debt RestructuringMain Messages • Aid remains low • Improved policies have increased aid effectiveness • Sovereign and banking system debt restructured, but not corporate debt • Rescue packages helped alleviate systemic risk and reduced the cost of adjustment in crisis countries

  15. ODA from major countries, 1990-97

  16. Poverty and Policy, 1996 Source: World Bank

  17. International rescue packages for crisis countries Source: IMF and World Bank

More Related