Realizing the Transport We Want: What will it take?

1. Realizing the Transport We Want: What will it take? Jose Luis Irigoyen Director of Transport and ICT, World Bank World Conference on Transport Research July 10-14, 2016 – Shanghai, China

2. What does the future of transport look like 15 years from now? What are the 5 top defining trends shaping the future of transportation?

3. World Transportation needs are growing rapidly The volume of transported passengers and freight has exploded in developing countries Global transport volumes will continue to grow Source: 2016 Outlook, International Transport Forum Road Rail Freight Passengers Source: World Bank. Development Indicators

4. Trade volumes continue to grow • Expected growth in trade translates into freight volumes growing by 4.2% annually between 2015 – 2030 • Significant changes in the geographical composition of trade • Hinterland connections will face the largest capacity challenges International freight in ton-km by corridor: 2010, 2030 and 2050 Source: Outlook 2016, International Transport Forum

5. Socio-economic shift in makeup of global population Major achievements in reducing poverty in past 10 years, but 3% target by 2030 far from secured Half of world population will move into middle class by 2030 with new mobility aspirations Private cars Source: World Bank

6. Shift boosts new demands for transport Household’s spending on transportation projected to increase by factor of 3-4 in South Asia, East Asia, Africa between 2013-2035 Global population shares by age cohort, % Source: World Bank Percent increase of total, transportation, and food consumption, 2013-35 Private cars Source: Hellebrandt and Mauro (2015) • More attention to equity issues, vulnerable groups (age, gender) • Social aspirations: broader opportunities for social outcomes, jobs, greater social accountability, quality of services (e.g., public transport) • Car ownership projected to grow by 60% by 2025

7. Globalization 2.0: rebalancing from N to S and W to E Logistics and supply chains play bigger role in a country’s growth as demand for products becomes global Global Economic Integration Trade integration ratio of total imports and exports to global GDP. Financial integration: ratio of total financial inflows and outflows to global GDP Percent of GDP “You can talk about the miracle of e-commerce in China or in the world … but the logistics industry is where China’s real great miracle has been over the past decade” Jack Ma, Global Smart Logistics Summit, June 2016: Merchandise trade, a cartographic visualization Source: Kose and Ozburk (2014), World Bank Development Indicators, Global Monitoring Report (2015). Source: DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014

8. Globalization 2.0: emerging trends • Integrated systems for synchronized use of different transport modes based on available capacity at all times • Reconfiguration of trade routes in line with shifting patterns in consumption and production • More balanced globalization: (1) expanding global value chains into “new territories” (countries, regions, sectors) and (2) reducing carbon footprint through shortened and improved supply chains (“lean and green” initiatives) Surface freight density – 2010 Source: 2016 Outlook, ITF Surface freight density 2030 Source: 2016 Outlook, ITF

9. Rapid Urbanization: spaces are transforming faster Shenzhen, China • East Asian cities expected to triple their built up area in 20 years • African cities expected to double their footprint by 2030; rapid urbanization at lower levels of income From a fishing village of several thousand Observed and projected number of new urban residents in developed and less developed countries Million people per year To a city of 9 million Today 1980 Source: Brandon Fuller and Paul Romer. 2014. “Urbanization as Opportunity”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

10. Urbanization brings opportunities, also challenges Cities with more than 10 million in 2030 Megacities congested even at low motorization rates Cities are learning that is not possible to build way out of congestion • Rapid pace of urbanization exacerbates institutional and resource constraints • Right choices early on to avoid “lock-in”: land use and transport planning; emphasis on public transport • By 2030, the population of slums may rise to over 1 billion

11. Challenges of rapid urbanization in Africa Connections among people as a function of population near city center Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa are crowded but physically dispersed and less well-connected than other cities Households in African cities face higher costs relative to their per capita GDP than in other regions. Urban transport is about 42% more expensive in African cities than other countries Source: World Bank Regional Study on Spatial Development of African Cities. Team Led by Shomik Lal

12. ICT/digital innovation in a hyper-connected world • Connectivity enables flow of goods, finance, knowledge, technology… ICTs are a powerful tool for reducing friction in such flows • New ways of communicating (smart phones, digital platforms, IoT, cloud computing) • New forms of mobility (e-commerce, connected vehicles, driverless vehicles, drones) • Predictive power of “Big Data” analytics for better planning, increased responsiveness Source: World Economic Forum, Boston Consulting Group. May 2013 ”Connected World: Transforming Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains”

13. ICTs integrate travel demand and transport solutions • Planning people-centered services and monitoring performance in real time • Incentivizing behavior change, “demand management” schemes, crowdsourcing • Integrating services across modes, addressing affordability through smart subsidies Aadhaar card, India Bogota SITP fare card, Colombia 4. Subsidy scheme can be linked to social security infrastructure 3. Multi-purpose use of card can stimulate use of public transport 1. Card is system integrator among all modes. Open standards/ protocols enable seamless user experience 2. Card allows design of subsidy: Government of Rio pays when user needs multiple transfers Rio Janeiro’s smart card

14. Matching power of ICTs enabling “shared economy” Ride Sourcing/Vehicle Sharing (ownership)/ Future: Automated Vehicle Sharing Huge potential of “Big Data” and data analytics in transportation • Explosive growth in connected devices, social networking platforms • Velocity of data aggregation/processing. • Sophisticated analytics can substantially improve decision making • Data privacy issues important

15. Climate Change is a threat to development Climate change increasing uncertainty “Different from past environmental problems for its scale, magnitude of its risks, urgency of global action”. N. Stern, May 2016 • Climate risks need to be integrated into planning/design, prioritizing robustness and resiliency more than before • Broad but uneven impacts on economy • Increasing frequency, costs of natural disasters • Poor countries, poor people likely to face greatest impact Source: World Bank, Shock Waves Policy Note (2016)

16. Transport: major contributor to global CO2 emissions Yet until recently, transport was absent from almost all scenarios on how to stabilize concentration of GHGs in atmosphere • At 2% yearly 1990-2012, the fastest growing source • Without modal shift transport will become largest emitter. • Emissions projected to nearly double by 2050 without action Transport currently contributes almost 23% of energy-related global emissions and rising… Lifecycle CO2 emissions, 2010 Outlook 2016, ITF

17. Big challenges ahead to put mobility on sustainable path Global efforts on sustainable mobility have so far been insufficient 70 1 32 1 billion people % fuelenergy 23 billion cars % in roaddeaths % GHG emissions ​Over 1 billion people have no access to an all-weather road 70 percent of fuel energy lost in engine and driveline inefficiencies Number of vehicles on the road expected to double to 2 billion by 2050 Road death rate per 100,000 population increased 32% in Low Income Countries (from 18.3 in 2010 to 24.1 in 2013) Transport accounts for 23% of energy-related GHG emissions and this share is increasing 

18. Large co-benefits from truly “sustainable mobility” Planning for low carbon, countries have a choice Current trends contribute to costly social externalities • Size and relevance of co benefits – they reinforce each other • Land and infrastructure policies today determine future travel, fuel use • Choice is between pathways that exacerbate climate risks and pathways that reduce climate risk and foster “better growth” (inclusive, green)

19. Choices will lock-in lifestyles, energy use, vulnerability Bogota Atlanta Barcelona Los Angeles

20. How the global agreements reached in 2015 impact the way we frame and implement a truly sustainable transport agenda?

21. SDGs: Major increase in global development ambition • SDGs shift focus to absolute and sustainable progress across a broader array of areas (from 8 under MDGs): • 17 goals and 169 targets to be attained by all countries around the world • Overarching goal to endpoverty, equitable development, sustainability

22. SDGs and Transport: The opportunity for a broader vision • Five targets directly involve transport: • Halve number of deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents (3.6); • Double global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (7.3); • Develop sustainable and resilient regional and trans-border infrastructure …with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all (9.1); • Provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport, notably expanding public transport (11.2); • Rationalize inefficient fossil fuels subsidies (12.c) • Attaining at least another six targets will critically depend on it: • Eradicating extreme poverty (1.1), agriculture productivity (2.1), air pollution (3.9), sustainable cities (11.6), reduction of food loss (12.3), climate change adaptation and mitigation (13.1)… • Mainstreaming of transport across SDGs underscores its importance as enabler of other sectors’ achievements

23. SDG3: Road Safety one of the targets Managing for results A global health crisis: • 1.25 million deaths per year, 20-50 million injured (since 2007) • Top cause of death 15-29 years old An equity issue: • 50% of fatalities vulnerable groups: pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists DGT, Spain. Fatalities 1980-2013 What will it take for developing countries to reach the tipping point? Source: WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015

24. Emphasis on equity: SDG9 inclusive access • Rural Access Index • Share of rural population living within 2 km of an all-season road. • 2006 results: 1 bn people unconnected to an all-weather road (based on household surveys) • 2016 update based on geospatial data

25. Emphasis on equity: SDG11 inclusive access in Cities Measuring access under Target 11.2.1: Proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport Measuring access to opportunities: Number of jobs accessible within 1 hour of starting point

26. SDG 11: Why special focus on cities? Tackle Local/Global Environment Spur Economic Growth Bring Inclusive Development Urbanization and GDP per capita Source: Shyam Menon, World Bank/EMBARQ (WRI),Jan 2007 • Cities generate 80% of global output (500, 60% of global income growth) • Growing welfare costs of traffic congestion • Urban outdoor pollution linked to 4 million premature deaths • Cities contribute 70% of energy –related GHG emissions • Growth of slums (urban poverty, social exclusion) • Bottom quintile spends disproportionate share of income on public transport

27. Paris Agreement at COP21 of UNFCCC • Global agreement to limit global warming to well below 2oC and make efforts to limit increase to 1.5oC (December 2015) • Countries encouraged to reach peak GHG emissions as soon as possible and achieve rapid reductions thereafter to “net zero” between 2050-2099 • NDCs: reviewing and strengthening them every 5 years, starting in 2020 • Adaptation as important as mitigation actions • International collaboration on low carbon research to enhance willingness to cooperate CITIES COUNTRIES PRIVATE SECTOR MDBs CIVIL SOCIETY >$175 billion committed for sustainable transport from 2013 to 2022 15 initiatives have committed to reducing carbon footprint across transport modes >260 transportation companies pledged to reduce GHG emissions >70% countries are targeting transport in their NDCs >80 C40 cities are tackling climate change and climate risk Many actors have made voluntary financial and operational commitments:

28. LPAA/PPMC transport initiatives at COP21 Airport Carbon Accreditation: Reduce carbon emissions & increase airport sustainability (50 airports carbon neutral by 2030 MobiliseYourCity: 100 cities engaged in sustainable urban mobility planning to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Navigating a Changing Climate: Reduce emissions, strengthen resilience, and adapt waterborne transport infrastructure Aviation’s Climate Action Takes Off: Collaborative climate action across the air transport sector UIC Low Carbon Sustainable Rail Transport Challenge:50% reduction of CO2 emissions, 50% increase in rail’s share of pax by 2030 C40 Clean Bus Declaration: Raising ambition and catalyzing markets UITP Declaration on Climate Change Leader-ship: Double the market share of public transport by 2025 Global Fuel Economy Initiative: 100 countries 50 by 50. Double fuel economy of vehicles by 2050 Urban Electric MobilityInitiative: Harness technological innovation and better urban planning to promote low carbon transport Global Green Freight Action Plan: Reduce climate and health impacts of goods transport World Cycling Alliance (WCA) and European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF) Commitment: Double cycling in European cities by 2030 ITS for Climate: Use Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to deliver big results at a small cost Worldwide Taxis4SmartCities: Accelerate introduction of low emission vehicles in taxis fleet by 2020 Low Carbon Road and Road Transport Initiative (PIARC). Climate adaptation policies. ZEV Alliance: Accelerate adoption of global zero-emission vehicles

29. Beyond incremental action: Targets and lock-in effects • ITF Decarbonization Project • A commonly-acceptable pathway to achieve zero transport emissions by around 2050. • Federate existing data and knowledge on transport to create most comprehensive model of global transport activity to date.  • Provide decision makers with a tool to test and gauge impact of policies and actions. • Bring broad set of partners into the design of roadmap towards carbon-neutral transport. “Planning INDCs to 2025-2030 is not enough! Two paths to 26-28% emissions by 2025. One is dead-end. The other a path to de-carbonization”. J. Sachs, World Climate Summit, Washington DC, May 2017

30. What will it take to implement such agenda? What are the emerging knowledge and policy gaps that may affect good decision making?

31. A shared Vision for “Sustainable Mobility for all” GOALS • Sustainable asset management and Transportation Demand Mgmt to get the most of existing infra. • Seamless inter-modal transport and logistics, lean & green initiatives • Smart solutions (ICT/Big Data) • Flexible “Demand Responsive Transport” • Secure transport and logistic systems • Rural population living within 2 km of all weather road • Urban population with access to public transport • Equitable access for all stake-holders, including groups w/special needs ((gender, age, disabilities) • Affordable to the poor (including demand subsidies where necessary) • GHG emissions in line w/low carbon trajectory for de-carbonization • Avoid through TOD, compact city planning/zoning • Shift to rail, water-ways, high quality public transport, walking/cycling, shared- veh, TDM • Improve vehicle technology, fuel efficiency stds, vehicle mtce. • Make transport climate resilient • Safe system approach to halve fatalities and injuries by 2020 • Active transport (walking and cycling) to support healthy lifestyles • Transport-related air pollution in cities reduced in line with WHO standards CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENT SAFETY EFFICIENCY INCLUSIVE ACCESS • Embed mitigation, adaptation and environmental concerns into supply and demand Improve the safety of mobility (SDG target 3.6 on road safety) Increase the efficiency of transport systems and services Secure access for all to economic and social opportunities AREAS OF FOCUS

32. Clear policies and well-coordinated bold Actions Scale and focusessential to radically transform the movement of people and goods in the short, medium, and long-term. In the short-term: a set of “quick-wins”, such as: • Expand congestion/road and parking charging in major global cities to eliminate distortions • Modernize ageing fleets, management systems to increase efficiency, and reduce empty runs In the medium-term: actions such as: • Accelerate the introduction of carbon pricing(including reforms to eliminate fuel subsidies w/o impacting the poor • Simplify regulations and incentives to encourage private investment in efficient low carbon technologies • Roll out technologies that can drastically reduce traffic crashes and fatalities • Dedicate funding for sustainable mobility in the Green Climate and Climate Investment funds • Rebalance urban public space in favor of NMT and expand use of public transport/mass transit • Tighten fuel economy standards to make transport cleaner/more efficient In the long-term: actions that support and accelerate the implementation of a Global Roadmap for De-Carbonization of the Transport Sector

33. Green House Gas Effect GLOBAL GLOBAL GLOBAL Energy Security / Fuel Prices Financial Liabilities NATIONAL NATIONAL NATIONAL Farmland Conversion Traffic Accidents LOCAL LOCAL LOCAL Auto Pollution Traffic Congestion A global leadership coalition to galvanize action • A coalition to galvanize action from public/private sector for sustainable mobility • National and city government: national/local leadership, policies • Private sector: investing in cutting edge sustainable transport, sharing data • Civil Society and academia/research: advocacy, knowledge, new solutions • International organizations: global clout, knowledge and financing “Sustainable Mobility” has become a local, national and global issue G-20 Toolkit on Urban Transport. Mexico, 2012

34. New demands on skills, institutions • Breaking silos - institutions that work together both vertically and horizontally towards common goals • Strong institutions set for accountability of specialized functions… • now need to coordinate across sectors and different levels of government… • ensuring coherence among strategies, policies, project selection… • Urgent need to build institutional capacity at local level: • Adaptable cities must strive for solutions that are “best fit” to local conditions • Multiplication of actors as cities become more interconnected with technology (governance) Leaders in Urban Transport Planning. Building capacity for holistic thinking and planning through participatory problem solving and networking with practitioners

35. Some research areas to support sustainable mobility Some implementation challenges and knowledge gaps ahead: • A strong foundation of data, indicators, and a results framework to monitor progress against SDGs and the vision goals • Rigorous documentation of wider benefits, cross sector impacts of spatial development patterns and access to transport (eg., labor markets) that can support an evidence-based Theory of Change • Robust modelling tools to assess impact of policies, regulations and investments on goals and underpin preparation of plans (NDCs, Road Safety Plans, etc) that support a satisfactory trajectory towards the goals • More comprehensive appraisal methodologies to value all benefits/social costs of transport, and support alternative decision-making/ scenario planning approaches that better deal with deep uncertainty • Better understanding of business models (eg., urban logistics) and barriers to fast adoption of smart solutions (stds, policy/regulatory constraints) • Continued development of transport products that are highly competitive, less polluting and tailored to increasing customers’ expectations • Better understanding of determinants of behavior to foster behavior changes in support of the goals of “sustainable mobility for all”

36. World Bank and the transport research community Some examples of joint work/collaboration include: • Making qualitative data available to enable external research • Impact of Rural Accessibility improvements in Peru, with GRADE • “IeConnect for Impact” with DIME and participating research institutions • Evidence-based research under WB’s/DEC Strategic Research Program (SRP): eg., logistics, resilience of transport networks, transport and poverty reduction • Developing new methodologies, joint innovative products • Burden of disease and road safety (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation); • Road Traffic Injuries Research Network to improve research capacity in LICs • Wider Economic Impacts of High-Speed Rail in China with Economic Planning and Research Institute in China and Cambridge University; • Open Transit Indicator tool with China Academy of Transport Science, MIT • Partnering with academia/think tanks in knowledge sharing and capacity building programs • LUTP (Singapore Land Transport Academy, KOTI, Academy Mayors China, various universities and think tanks in more than 15 countries • Transform initiative, China • Transforming Transportation Conference with WRI; TRB, COTA • Engagements in WB’s analytical work that leads to research papers

37. Asante 谢谢 Merci ﺷﻜﺮﺍﹰ 感恩 አመሰግናለሁ धन्यवाद Спасибо Thank you!jirigoyen@worldbank.org ขอบคุณ Gracias Grazie баярлалаа ありがとうございます Dziękuję Ci