Satellite Altimetry Outreach During Hurricane Rita: Lessons Learned

1. Satellite Altimetry Outreach During Hurricane Rita: Lessons Learned Robert R. Leben and George H. Born Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research MargaretSrinivasan Jet Propulsion Laboratory

2. A tale of three storms… Katrina Rita Wilma • Four land-falling Gulf coast hurricanes in 2005 with damages totaling in excess of $100 Billion. • The only Atlantic season on record where three Cat 5 hurricanes occurred in a single season.

3. 2005 Hurricane Season The 2005 hurricane season was the most costly on record with estimated damages in the U.S. of over $100 Billion: • Dennis $2.2 Billion • Katrina $80 Billion • Rita $9.4 Billion • Wilma $14.4 Billion

4. GOES-12 SST Composite with SSH Overlaid KATRINA Katrina Path Maximum sustained winds (mph)

5. CCAR SSH Map Overlaid with Katrina Path/Sustained Winds

6. Rapid Hurricane Intensification Rapid hurricane intensification occurs in the Gulf of Mexico because of deep layers of warm current associated with the Loop Current and Loop Current eddies. • Suspected in the 1969 Hurricane Camille. • Observed and verified by modeling studies of the 1995 Hurricane Opal. Satellite altimetry estimates of “heat potential” associated with subsurface warm layers were used operational during Katrina, Rita and Wilma by the National Hurricane Center.

7. 1969 Hurricane Camille Before Katrina, Hurricane Camille was the hurricane by which all Gulf-coast hurricanes were measured: • Category 5 at landfall with 190 mph maximum sustained winds. • Landfall pressure was 909 mbar. Only the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was lower (895 mbar). • Over 20 foot storm surge from Pass Christian to Biloxi, the highest storm surge ever measured until Katrina. • At least 150 dead in Mississippi. Another 150 killed in flooding caused by Camille in Appalachian Mountains.

8. 1969 Hurricane Camille • Category 5 at landfall near Pass Christian on August 18, 1969. • Hindcast 1-D modeling studies implicates Loop Current in the rapid intensification and severe strength. From Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes by Kerry Emmaunel

9. Hurricane Opal Eddy Aggie Loop Current 9 people killed $2 to 3 Billion damages Cat 4 TS In early October 1995, Hurricane Opal intensified from a tropical storm to Category 4 hurricane over Eddy Aggie a Loop Current eddy.

10. Teaching Points: Goals of Outreach The goals of CCAR outreach during Hurricane Rita was to increase public awareness and understanding of: • oceans and their role in rapid hurricane intensification • Gulf of Mexico regional oceanography • utility of satellite altimeters as an all-weather ocean observing system.

11. GOES-12 SST Composite with SSH Overlaid Katrina Path Maximum sustained winds (mph)

12. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential: Sept 22, 2006 Image Credit: Gustavo Goni NOAA Hurricane Rita Path

13. CCAR SSH Overlaid with Katrina Path and Sustained Winds

14. First News Release: Sept 15, 2005

15. Response to First News Release Two weeks after Katrina made landfall we released a media advisory describing the oceanographic conditions that led to the rapid and fierce intensification of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. • There was no response from the media or general public to the press release. • Ok there was a couple of responses. A campus-wide email of the news release did elicit email comments from two CU librarians that take water aerobics with me at lunch time.

16. Second News Release: Sept 21,2005

17. Second News Release One week later a similar advisory was released as Hurricane Rita intensified over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. • This time the response was overwhelming from the media. • The great difference in the media’s response is mainly attributable to the perception of the first news advisory as “old news” and the second as a news “scoop” central to the evolving news story on Hurricane Rita that was made all the more newsworthy in the aftermath of Katrina.

18. JPL Website: Sept 21, 2005

19. Publicity through NASA/JPL In addition to the JPL home page story, images and summaries were hosted by: NASA Planetary Photo Journal pages • http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA06427 • http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA06428 • http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA03055 NASA Earth Observatory • http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=13154 Non-NASA sites include Wikipedia.org

22. CCAR/CU Updates Altimeter maps with observations/forecasts from National Hurricane Center forecasts were updated as frequently as possible and released through CCAR website: • graphics were improved, • near real-time daily altimetry SSH updates were incorporated, • most of the processing was done by hand.

23. Rita Wednesday 9/21 10 AM CDT Rita

24. Rita Wednesday 9/21 4pm CDT

25. Rita Thursday 9/22 10am CDT

26. Rita 9/22 4pm CDT Rita Thursday 9/22 4pm CDT

27. Rita Friday 9/23 10am CDT

28. Rita Friday 9/21 4pm CDT

29. Rita Friday 9/23 10pm CDT

30. Media Coverage Television • CNN meteorologists showed Rita image during extended weather reports on the storm and on “Larry King Live” the night before landfall. • Local news stations in Denver (CBS and Fox) did taped video reports.

31. Media Coverage Radio • Three live interviews on Denver’s KOA radio during peak morning and afternoon commuting hours. Newpapers • A total of five newspaper articles.

32. Lessons Learned Every teaching experience is also a learning experience. Lessons I learned during Rita included being prepared for: • English units and basic statistics in layman’s terms, • the unexpected question, • the “sound bite”, • the “just saw you on the news” and wanted to chat phone calls.

37. Acknowledgements JPL/NASA • Margaret Srinivasan • Alan Buis Univ. of Colorado • Jim Scott CCAR • Michael Cragg