CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER MAKING RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS “CLIMATE PROOF” IN SPAIN

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATERMAKING RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS “CLIMATE PROOF” IN SPAIN

2. OUTLINE • Overview of Spanish Climate Change Adaptation Strategy • Climate change on previous River Basin Management Planning efforts • Current results on assessment of climate change impact on water resources • Legal requirements and methodology for making next River Basin Management Plans “climate proof”

3. SPANISH CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN • Aim: Integration of adaptation to climate change into the planning strategy of the different socio-economic sectors and ecological systems in Spain (mainstreaming) • July 2006:Formal approval at CCPCC • Need to evaluate impacts of climate change on water resources within the framework of the National Program of Adaptation to Climate Change in Spain.

4. COORDINATION COMMISSION FOR POLICIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE (CCPCC) CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN Coordination: OECC INTER-MINISTERIAL GROUP ON CLIMATE CHANGE (GICC) NATIONAL CLIMATE COUNCIL (CNC) INTEGRATION (including Regional Plans) SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT IN CLIMATIC AREAS ASSESSMENT OF SECTORS AND SYSTEMS Socioeconomic Conditions Climatic Conditions Mediterranean coastal area North coastal area … Regional Climate Scenarios Socioeconomic Scenarios Pyrenees Plateau Agriculture Water Fishing Energy Forestry Tourism … Biodiversity Health

5. PREVIOUS RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS • River Basin Management Plans approved in 1998 did not consider the effect of climate change in water resources • The effect of climate change on water resources was considered for the first time in the elaboration of the technical documentation for the National Hydrologic Plan (PHN) in year 2000

6. RUNOFF REDUCTION UNDER CLIMATE SCENARIOS STRONG SCENARIO WEAK SCENARIO Temperature increase of 1ºC Precipitation reduction of 5% Temperature increase of 1ºC

7. OTHER IMPACT STUDIES Percentage of runoff decrease under several climate scenarios

8. CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN WATER RESOURCES • ASSESSMENT REPORT OF PRELIMINARY IMPACTS IN SPAIN DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE • INCREASED PRESSURES ON WATER RESOURCES • Reduction of natural water resources • Increase of water demands • Increase of human intervention on hydrologic cycle • IMPORTANT EFFECTS ON RELATED SECTORS • Environment, agriculture, tourism, energy or industry • In some cases water resources may be a limiting factor for development

9. NEW RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS • New legislation, RD 907/2007 about River Basin Management Plans: It is mandatory to consider the effects of the climate change in the plans • Draft Technical Guide: River Basin Management Plans must consider water resources under the climate scenariosforeseen by the Ministry of Enviroment

10. INPUT FOR RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS PRINCIPAL ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN Research about the potential effects of Climate Change in: • Water resources in natural regime • Water demand (irrigation, urban supply and industry) • Available resources in water distribution systems • Ecological status of water bodies The Spanish Center for Hydrographic Research (CEDEX) is working on it, with the management of the DGA (Directorate of Water)

11. ASSESMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN NATURAL REGIME Recent results: PRUDENCE project Revision and updating of former assessments

12. HYDROLOGY OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS PRUDENCE regional model show very large variability and do not reproduce observed hydrological variables well

13. ASSESMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN NATURAL REGIME USE OF A HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE SIMULATION MODEL: • The SIMPA model was developed by CEDEX and it was used for the elaboration of the White Paper on Water in Spain • Model boundary conditions: climate scenarios developed by the National Meteorological Service (INM) • Model results are hydrological monthly time series for all Spanish river basins (streamflow in rivers, recharge of groundwater bodies…)

14. HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE SIMULATION MODEL: SIMPA PRECIPITATION SURFACE RUNOFF STREAMFLOW ACTUAL ET - Rainfall-Runoff model - Global for Spain - 1 km2 grid - Monthly scale

15. WATER DEMAND (Irrigation, urban supply and industry) • Climate change impact assessment on water demand for different uses • Direct assessment: Development of several models describing the relationships between climate variables and water consumption in different sectors • Indirect assessment: Effect of impacts in other sectors on water demands (population changes, hydropower,…) • Adaptation proposals: demand management, new and more efficient infrastructures, crops change…

16. WATER AVAILABILITY IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT MODEL: AQUATOOL

17. AQUATOOL SIMPA METHODOLOGY FOR WATER AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT Climatic Variables Water Availability Climate Change Scenarios Monthly Streamflow Water Resources System

18. RUNOFF REDUCTION UNDER CLIMATE SCENARIOS REDUCTION OF AVAILABILITY REDUCTION OF NATURAL FLOW

19. ECOLOGICAL STATUS OF WATER BODIES • Evaluation of climate change impact on ecological status of water bodies is the most difficult activity. • It requires deep knowledge of the species distribution in lakes, rivers and reservoirs and on the relationship between them and environmental conditions. • Use of Bioclimatic Envelope Models, BEMs