Trade Statistics at UNCTAD

1. Experts Group Meeting on the Compendium of Intra-African and Related Trade StatisticsAddis Ababa, Ethiopia, 5-7 October 2011 Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Markie Muryawan Statistician 29 September 2011 Markie.muryawan@unctad.org

2. Trade Statistics at UNCTAD UNCTAD statistics highlight the interconnection between globalization, trade and development. Reliable and timely data help developing countries diagnose and evaluate the state of economies Role of UNCTAD statistics

3. Contents of UNCTAD statistics Trade Statistics at UNCTAD International merchandise trade, with long historical time series up to the most recent 2010 data available, including breakdowns of exports and imports by partner and products, merchandise trade indicators International trade in services Economic trends, with national accounts, balance of payments statistics, and exchange rates Foreign direct investment External financial resources, including migrants' remittances, development assistance, external debt and international reserves Commodity prices, updated monthly, including long-term series and calculations on the instability of prices Population and labour force Information economy Creative economy Maritime transport including the liner shipping connectivity index

4. Insights from UNCTAD statistics Trade Statistics at UNCTAD “The food crisis, the climbing cost of oil and minerals until mid 2008, concerns about inflation, and then the global crisis, the severely decline of international trade in 2009, the improved economic activity in 2010, commodity price indices exceeds its previous 2008 peak in beginning 2011, the long standing decrease of Official Development Assistance (ODA) share in financial flows to developing countries, the increased representation of foreign direct investment (FDI) and migrants’ remittance in GDP share …”

5. Use of Trade statistics One of UNCTAD primary focus areas is in trade, therefore trade statistics is indispensible and is used in various analytical reports and publications But, in order to have more meaningful interpretation for analysis, trade statistics needs to be (1) reliable, (2) complete, and (3) coherence In addition, it is to be combined with other statistics domains to construct new indicators. See examples on the right Trade Statistics at UNCTAD

6. List of UNCTAD trade series [1] Internal use only, not for publication [2] Idem [3] Derived indicators from trade matrix

7. For trade statistics, the main sources are … Trade Statistics at UNCTAD At total trade level: • EUROSTAT, IMF - BOP, IMF - DOT, IMF – IFS, Inter-agency Common Data Set (CDS), OECD, OPEC - Annual Statistical Bulletin, UN Comtrade, World Bank - WDI, EIU Online, WTO, and National Sources Trade by partner: • IMF DOTS and UN Comtrade Trade by partner and product: • UN Comtrade Conclusion: Data are widely available and easily accessible even at the most detailed level

8. But those data may not be … Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Reliable • Figures vary among sources, sometimes with great magnitude differences • Do not follow acceptable trends: outliers? • Sometimes do not reflect well known fact • Excessive confidentiality measure on products or partners Complete • Missing major products or partners • Data availability for non-reported countries Coherence • Cannot directly combined with other statistical domains as methodologies may differ (ex. trade in services or national accounts)

9. And as consequences … Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Users cannot use “raw” trade data directly for economic analysis to create trade indicators such as territorial aggregation, intra-trade on specific region or trade concentration. See examples below showing different figures at total trade level

10. Therefore, we need to … Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Reliability • Choose the best reliable figures preferable the one that complies to international recommendations • To the extent possible, detect potential outliers and correct them Completeness • Detect incomplete partners or products and adjust them • Estimate non-reporting countries Coherence • Be careful when mixing data from different methodologies, and put notes as much as possible

11. Actions in more detail … At total level: Working closely with WTO to compile Interagency CDS, especially for LDC countries Estimation to the extent possible (sometimes estimated data is not to be published but used as input to the calculation of derived indicators) At detailed level (SITC 3-digit): To the extent possible, adjust data to be in the acceptance range of total trade Decipher unknown partners and products Estimate non-reporting countries Trade Statistics at UNCTAD

12. Our estimation methodology Start from finding the best total figures then set the band of acceptable Then estimate partner distributions based on IMF DOTS or UN Comtrade mirror Then distributes the products based on historical trends and UNCTAD price indices To the extent possible, estimate significant unknown partners and products Trade Statistics at UNCTAD 1st Step 2nd Step 3rd Step

13. Limitation Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Selected totals may not cover the whole economic territory Potential risk of error in mixing IMF DOTS and UN Comtrade as their methodologies differ Unreliability of mirror statistics due to asymmetries in partner attribution, valuation and trade system Price indices may not reflect situation in particular countries or regions Potential break in series between reported data and estimated data And … Estimated data may not reflect reality on the ground

14. Further improvement Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Get the totals right with the assistance from countries (thanks to their knowledge on national circumstances) Avoiding the break in series by respecting the trends for the combination of partner and product Build expert knowledge base on specific country or sector and integrate it on estimation methodology Better sharing of data or methodology among organizations dealing with data estimation And … To extend time series coverage and more detailed products using HS classification

15. UNCTAD Trade Indices Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Unit value indices of exports and imports Terms of trade indices • The ratio of the export unit value index to the import unit value index Volume indices of exports and imports Purchasing power indices of exports • The value of index of exports deflated by the import unit value index For individual countries and trade/economic groups

16. Example use of trade indices in publication Trade Statistics at UNCTAD UNCTAD Trade and Development Report 2011

17. Trade indices main data sources Trade Statistics at UNCTAD UNCTAD total trade series and Unit value of imports and exports (aggregates) • IFS unit value indices of exports and imports • CEPALSTAT data for ECLAC member states • Some national sources • For other countries, UNCTAD calculates unit value indices on the basis of "International trade price indices" and UNCTADstat Trade matrix

18. International trade price indices Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Calculated/Estimated at SITC 3-digit level on the basis of: • Germany Busdesamt, trade indices • Japan Customs, unit value indices • Bank of Japan, import and export price indices • UK Office of National Statistics, import and export price indices • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, import and export price indices • UNCTAD commodity price statistics • FAO commodity prices. • IMF-IFS commodity prices • World Bank commodity prices

19. Users of trade indices and joint project Trade Statistics at UNCTAD Internal analysis and international organizations • UNCTAD Trade and Development Report Ch.1, Section International Trade • UN WESP World Economic Situation and Prospects • World Bank WDI Joint UNCTAD/WTO project on volume indices • Quarterly volume indices • Coherent annual and quarterly volume indices

20. Interdependence of trade series International Trade Price Indices Total Trade Trade by Partners Trade Matrix Trade Indices Concentration Indices / Structural Changes Quarterly volume growth rate Illustration: Simplified UNCTAD Merchandise Trade Series interdependence, External sources, Tariff, Creative Economy and ICT series are not shown

21. Dissemination system Trade Statistics at UNCTAD All UNCTAD statistics are made available at UNCTADstat UNCTAD Tariff database is accessible from WITS Single point of contact: statistics@unctad.org

22. Selected UNCTAD publications Trade Statistics at UNCTAD