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Probabilistic Storm Forecasting for Traffic Flow Management: Progress and Challenges

Probabilistic Storm Forecasting for Traffic Flow Management: Progress and Challenges. Stephen S. Weygandt NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather NBAA Convention, October 9, 2008. RCPF. Model-based storm guidance. Hourly updating model. RUC  RR.

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Probabilistic Storm Forecasting for Traffic Flow Management: Progress and Challenges

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  1. Probabilistic Storm Forecasting for Traffic Flow Management:Progress and Challenges Stephen S. Weygandt NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather NBAA Convention, October 9, 2008

  2. RCPF Model-based storm guidance Hourly updating model RUC  RR Data Assimilation cycle Radar Assim Model post-processing HCPF Storm-scale probabilityinformation HRRR Observations Model ensembles Probability products

  3. Mesoscale model guidance 20 July 2008 9 am outlook RCPF 13-km RUC & Rapid Refresh Hourly update cycle gives accurate mesoscale environment, good convective initiation RCPF (hourly 3-10 h outlook ) made from time-lagged ensemble of RUC RCPF used as guidance for CCFP 6 hr fcst 1 pm EDT 6-h CCFP (from RTVS) CCFP 8-h RCPF Forecast length 4-km verification against NCWD valid time storm coverage CSI Outlook time Valid time 4 hr fcst 1 pm EDT Verification: 1 June – 31 August 2008

  4. Mesoscale model guidance 20 July 2008 9 am outlook RCPF 13-km RUC & Rapid Refresh Hourly update cycle gives accurate mesoscale environment, good convective initiation RCPF (hourly 3-10 h outlook ) made from time-lagged ensemble of RUC RCPF used as guidance for CCFP 8 hr fcst 3 pm EDT 6-h CCFP (from RTVS) CCFP 8-h RCPF Forecast length 4-km verification against NCWD valid time storm coverage CSI Outlook time Valid time 6 hr fcst 3 pm EDT Verification: 1 June – 31 August 2008

  5. Storm-scale model guidance 20 July 2008 2 pm initial time 6 hr fcst 8 pm EDT radar HRRR (3-km Hi-Res Rapid Refresh) High resolution needed for realistic storm structure (storm-types, gaps in lines, etc.) Hourly 12-h forecast, 15-min VIL output RUC radar assimilation improves HRRR HRRR 6-h fcsts radar norad 8 pm EDT Forecast length initial time storm coverage 3-km 20 dBZ verification CSI Initial time Valid time Truth Verification: 1 June – 31 August 2008

  6. Storm-scale model guidance 20 July 2008 2 pm initial time 6 hr fcst 8 pm EDT norad HRRR (3-km Hi-Res Rapid Refresh) High resolution needed for realistic storm structure (storm-types, gaps in lines, etc.) Hourly 12-h forecast, 15-min VIL output RUC radar assimilation improves HRRR HRRR 6-h fcsts radar norad 8 pm EDT Forecast length initial time storm coverage 3-km 20 dBZ verification CSI Initial time Valid time Truth Verification: 1 June – 31 August 2008

  7. HRRR Model-based TFM guidance HRRR forecasts 3-km 30 dBZ verification radar 1 June – 31 Aug 2008 norad CSI Forecast Length (hours) Radar assimilation improves HRRR forecast through 12-h HRRR key component of CoSPA HRRR storm structure allows extraction of ATM information HRRR and HRRR-based probabilities Important for automated ATM HRRR ensembles ATM probabilities

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