Richard Engelen ECMWF

1. Global Earth-system Modelling using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Progress so far and satellite provision 2009-2019 Richard Engelen ECMWF

2. Contents of the Presentation • Overall Global Objectives of GEMS • Specific Objectives of GEMS • Progress since Spring 2005 start of GEMS • Data issues • Model • Assimilation • First 4D-Var results • Schedule to operational transition of GEMS in May 2009 • Review of Satellite Provision for GEMS 2009-2019

3. GEMS FAQs • GMES Integrated Project: • 4 years 2005-2009 • 12.5MEuro, • 30 Institutes, • 14 Countries • www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS • Management • Coordinator A.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) • Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) • Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) • Aerosol O.Boucher (UK) • Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F) • Validation H.Eskes (NL) • Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF),

4. Motivations for GEMS • BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES • Excess deaths in summer 2003 heatwave:- 18K in France, at least 33K in western Europe. • SCIENCE • GEMS will synthesise all available data into accurate ‘status assessments’, and will meet many needs of the GCOS Implementation Plan • TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION • Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents.

5. GEMS organisation Greenhouse Gases Reactive Gases Validation Aerosol Regional Air Quality

6. Objectives of GEMS (i): Global Operational System for Monitoring & forecasting Atmospheric Composition Global Operational System • By 2009 a validated, comprehensive, and operational global data assimilation / forecast system for atmospheric composition and dynamics, • Combine all available remotely sensed and in-situ data Deliverables: global monitoring & forecasting • 3D global distributions (high spatial and temporal resolution) of key atmospheric trace constituents including • greenhouse gases (initially including CO2, and progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), • reactive gases (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), • aerosols (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)

7. Objectives of GEMS (ii): -Regional Air-Quality Forecasts -Retrospective Analyses -Variational Inversion Techniques • Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions • Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational regional air-quality and ‘chemical weather’ forecast systems • Retrospective Analysis • Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era (1999-2007) • Sources, Sinks and Transports • Provide state-of-the-art variational estimates of the sources, sinks and inter-continental transports, of many trace gases and aerosols;

8. Contents of the Presentation • Overall Global Objectives • Specific Objectives • Progress since Spring 2005 start • Data issues • Model • Assimilation • First 4D-Var results • Schedule to operational transition in May 2009 • Satellite Provision 2009-2019

9. Progress since May 2005 in the global sub-projects • Data Issue • WMO involvement in Chemical Weather:- BUFR issues being worked out • Data acquisition proceeding well, with considerable cooperation from the space Agencies (ESA,EUMETSAT, NASA, NOAA) • Modelling • Generic capability in the model to advect many (~100) species • In-line parameterisations implemented for Greenhouse gases & Aerosol • Surface fluxes specified climatologically (CO2) or dynamically (Aerosol) • Year-long test runs with specified meteorology and free-running chemistry • For reactive gases: Forecast model coupled via OASIS-4 to CTMs (Chemical Transport Models) is almost ready • 4D-VAR (Four-dimensional variational assimilation) • 3 separate assimilation systems have been built • Forecast error correlations assessed by Ensemble 4DVar & NCEP methods • Generic capability implemented in 4D-Var to assimilate radiances, retrieved profiles, and total column amounts • First assimilations being assessed

10. ECMWF model CO2 north-south gradients compared to surface flasks Aug2004 Jan 2004 Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the north-south gradients. Southern hemisphere model values are slightly too low (missing biomass burning??)

11. ECMWF model CO2 seasonal cycle compared to surface flasks N. Hem S. Hem Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the seasonal cycle. Northern hemisphere summer model values are slightly too high (missing land sink??)

12. First atmospheric CO2 4D-Var analysis results 387 369 After 10 days of 4D-Var, the analysis has increased the global mean value as well as the spatial gradients. The increments in any analysis cycle are within ± 3 ppmv. 3.2 -3.1

13. Zonal mean CO2 distributions 380 100 369 1000 60 S 60 N The effect of assimilating AIRS radiances is mainly to increase CO2 mixing ratios in the upper troposphere. The lower troposphere is largely unaffected, because vertical error correlations are narrow and the adjoint of convection is still missing.

14. Preliminary results for one analysis cycle First guess departures (obs-model) for AOD at 0.55 microns

15. Preliminary results for one analysis cycle Analysis departures (obs-analysis) for AOD at 0.55 microns

16. Aerosol mixing ratio increments at the surface (mg/kg)

17. Test assimilation of MOPITT total column CO data CO observations Background 20041201, 00z Analysis, 20041201, 0z Kg/m2 Observation error 10% diagonal B-matrix, σb=1.e-7 kg/kg Background field = 1.e-7 kg/kg No chemistry

18. Contents of the Presentation • Overall Global Objectives • Specific Objectives • Progress since Spring 2005 start • Data issues • Model • Assimilation • First 4D-Var results • Schedule to operational transition in May 2009 • Satellite Provision 2009-2019

19. Schedule of GEMS work at ECMWF

20. Review of satellite provision 2009-2019 • Key uncertainties in satellite provisions 2009-2019 • Uncertain implications of $3B cost overrun in NOAA’s $8B NPP/NPOESS program • DoD must report to Congress in May/June 2006 • Worst case scenario: No launch before 2014 • Recent news is much more encouraging • NASA’s Earth Observation budget for the next decade is very uncertain • ESA’s priority is uncertain for chemistry in Earth Explorer and Sentinel Programmes • Concerns • Greenhouse Gases • Aerosol • Reactive Gases

21. Greenhouse Gas Provision

22. Aerosol Provision

23. Reactive Gas (UTLS & Air-Quality) Provision

24. Conclusions on GEMS satellite provision 2009-2019 • Security of Satellite Provision beyond 2009 • Most secure • Greenhouse gases probably have the most secure provision • Least Secure • Reactive gases probably have the least secure provision • Air-Quality chemistry has no provision beyond 2012 • Aerosol provision depends on an early launch date for VIIRS on NOAA’s NPP/NPOESS • Next Developments • Press ESA for an Air-Quality mission in 2010, and EUMETSAT for 2020 • Await Congressional confirmation of DoD/NOAA May’06 recommendations on NPP/NPOESS • Hope that the US scientists can persuade current and future US administrations to fund the necessary NASA and NOAA missions.

25. END thank you for your attention!www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS