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Eduardo Delgado Assad Embrapa Information Technology assad@cnptia.embrapa.br

EXPERT MEETING ON REQUIREMENTS OF THE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE AND WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT MARKETS FOR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES Challenges and oportunities. Eduardo Delgado Assad Embrapa Information Technology assad@cnptia.embrapa.br.

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Eduardo Delgado Assad Embrapa Information Technology assad@cnptia.embrapa.br

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  1. EXPERT MEETING ON REQUIREMENTS OF THE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE AND WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT MARKETS FOR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES Challenges and oportunities Eduardo Delgado Assad Embrapa Information Technology assad@cnptia.embrapa.br Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

  2. Principal climatic events storm drought hail frost High Temperature wind Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

  3. Hurricane Catarina • Saturday, March 27, 2004 - Winds of 150km/h and waves with 5 m height reached Torres, in Rio Grande do Sul, destroying twenty one thousand of houses, with many people injured and homeless

  4. Piracicaba 2006

  5. Cepagri/Unicamp

  6. Main problems: • - High variability in the rain regimen • - Sensible Regions of the influences of El Nino, La Nina • - Low density of official meteorological data. • losses provoked by droughts,storms, high and low T Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

  7. High rates of losses Harvests 91/92 e 92/93 Needs principally rain and temperature data. Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

  8. Agrometeorological Monitoring www.agritempo.gov.br Zullo Jr., J. et al. (Unicamp e Embrapa) Piracicaba (SP), 13/07/2007

  9. Monitoring Agromet System - AGRITEMPO Principal Characteristic Data base are Free after August 2002 (T,P)

  10. Real Stations - Agritempo Parceiros INMET CPTEC UDs Embrapa Lamepe/Itep Cemig Cooxupé Simepar Fepagro Epagri Dep. Hidr.AL IPGO Unicamp USP Inst. Flor. Unesp CDVale

  11. Virtual Stations- Agritempo T max, Tmin Quantitatif Rain Qualitatif (binary) Yes or not Zullo Jr., J. et al. (Unicamp e Embrapa) Piracicaba (SP), 13/07/2007

  12. Evolution of agricultural insurance contracts In R$. 1 real = 0.5 US$ Source: Aliança Insurance of Brazil * Losses ~6%

  13. Losses by frost in São Paulo State coffee production • Area production 240.000 hectares • Costs production = US$ 120 millions • Expected benefits with weather forecast frost is efficient in 50% = US$ 40 milions. • custosmeteor.ppt

  14. Principal results Climatic risk zoning Brazil: Average Corn Yield before climatic risks zoning: 1991 a 1995 = 2564 Kg/ha Average Corn Yield after climatic risks zoning: 1996 e 2003 = 2961 Kg/ha .................15% Average soybean Yield before climatic risks zoning: 1991 a 1995 = 1808 Kg/ha Average soybean Yield after climatic risks zoning: 1996 e 2003 = 2744 Kg/ha..................26% (

  15. Global Data base: Temperature, rain Imagery Technology: Research to estimate rain, soil humidity and Real Evapotranspiration. Combine high spectral with high temporal resolution (1-3 days, 500 m) Common areas for climate/agroclimate research: Crop yields, soil humidity, forecast of extremes events, forecast models adapted to agriculture 10,15 and 30 days. Combine Meta-models with local models

  16. Thanks assad@cnptia.embrapa.br www.agritempo.gov.br

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