CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems CSIRO Complex Systems Science Emerging Science Area

1. Dynamic resilience in landscape exploitation systemsCameron Fletcher, David Hilbert, Andrew Higgins, Peter Roebeling, John Ludwig CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems CSIRO Complex Systems Science Emerging Science Area

2. Synopsis • Important points • We have created a dynamic, generic model of landscape exploitation systems • We analyse the topology of state space to summarize properties across all systems • We aim to analyse these systems at multiple scales, across multiple objectives • Definition • Landscape exploitation systems are systems in which human beings harvest a renewable natural resource using human-made capital to create an “economic” good. They are therefore very general, including hunting-gathering, swidden agriculture, grazing and intensive agriculture systems.

3. Outline • Synopsis • ► Motivation • Predator-prey analogy • Exploitation systems • Model structure • State space topology • First results • Multi-objective optimization • A spatial mosaic

4. Motivation

5. Outline • Synopsis • Motivation • ► Predator-prey analogy • Exploitation systems • Model structure • State space topology • First results • Multi-objective optimization • A spatial mosaic

6. Population Time The predator-prey analogy

7. Natural capital Time Human-made capital Human-made capital Time Natural capital A model exploitation system

8. Outline • Synopsis • Motivation • Predator-prey analogy • ► Exploitation systems • Model structure • State space topology • First results • Multi-objective optimization • A spatial mosaic

9. Hunting-gathering • Natural capital: • Edible rainforest plants • Bush meat • Human-made capital • Human beings • Bows and arrows etc. • Swidden agriculture • Natural capital: • Rainforest nutrients • Human-made capital • Human beings • Rudimentary tools • Grazing system • Natural capital: • Native grasses • Human-made capital • Cattle, sheep • Some industrial tools • Intensive agriculture • Natural capital: • Some key soil nutrients • Human-made capital • Cultivated crop plants • Tractors • Industrial tools A range of generic systems

10. Outline • Synopsis • Motivation • Predator-prey analogy • Exploitation systems • ► Model structure • State space topology • First results • Multi-objective optimization • A spatial mosaic

11. Exploiter- Manager Reinvestment Creating production Earning a profit The local model Consuming natural capital

12. The local model Intrinsic growth Consumption Savings rate Production Depreciation

13. Making a choice

14. Outline • Synopsis • Motivation • Predator-prey analogy • Exploitation systems • Model structure • ► State space topology • First results • Multi-objective optimization • A spatial mosaic

15. Human-made capital Natural capital Space-space topology

16. Human-made capital Natural capital Space-space topology

17. Human-made capital Natural capital Space-space topology State space topology

18. Outline • Synopsis • Motivation • Predator-prey analogy • Exploitation systems • Model structure • State space topology • ► First results • Multi-objective optimization • A spatial mosaic

19. ??? 0.7 First results – simple strategies

20. Economics Economics Economics Economics Human-made capital Human-made capital Human-made capital Human-made capital Dynamics Dynamics Dynamics Dynamics Natural capital Natural capital Natural capital Natural capital Control parameter Control parameter Control parameter Control parameter Results

21. Normalized performance Normalized performance Normalized performance Normalized performance Control parameter Control parameter Control parameter Control parameter Results Economic (solid), basin size (dashed) and return time (dotted) performance

22. Outline • Synopsis • Motivation • Predator-prey analogy • Exploitation systems • Model structure • State space topology • First results • ► Multi-objective optimization • A spatial mosaic

23. Pareto front Economic objective Normalized performance Control parameter Dynamic objective Multi-objective optimization • Multi-objective optimization • We can investigate dynamic qualities like resilience • We can investigate traditional measures like profits • Is there a formal way to combine out investigations of both?

24. Dynamic performance Dynamic performance Dynamic performance Dynamic performance Economic performance Economic performance Economic performance Economic performance Results – Multi-objective optimization Trade-offs between dynamic and economic performance

25. Outline • Synopsis • Motivation • Predator-prey analogy • Exploitation systems • Model structure • State space topology • First results • Multi-objective optimization • ► A spatial mosaic

26. Spatial systems • Spatial systems • Region built up of independent farms, with independent exploiters, each with their own management strategies and goals • Management strategies and goals are functions of economic and social forces across the region, and they change with time • How does the behaviour of the total system emerge from the many diverse local behaviours?

27. Pareto front Local scale private (economic?) objective Large-scale social (dynamic?) objective Spatial systems and multi-scale optimization • Multi-scale optimization • Across a spatial system, each exploiter will manage towards different optima • In addition, the global system will exert some pressure to find a “social optimum” • Can we capture this multi-scale optimization using the tools we have developed?

28. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems Name David Hilbert Title Ecological Modeller Phone +61 7 4091 8835 Email David.Hilbert@csiro.au Web www.csiro.au Thank You Contact CSIRO Phone 1300 363 400 +61 3 9545 2176 Email enquiries@csiro.au Web www.csiro.au CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems Name Cameron Fletcher Title Ecological Modeller Phone +61 7 4091 8820 Email Cameron.Fletcher@csiro.au Web www.csiro.au