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The Impact of Climate Change on Maple Syrup Production in Ithaca

The Impact of Climate Change on Maple Syrup Production in Ithaca . Presented By Ashley Bell Dr. Thomas Pfaff Spring 2010 Whalen Symposium . Maple Syrup Overview. Sugar maple Found throughout the local region NY produces 362,000 gallons per year 40 liters of sap per 1 liter syrup

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The Impact of Climate Change on Maple Syrup Production in Ithaca

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  1. The Impact of Climate Change on Maple Syrup Production in Ithaca Presented By Ashley Bell Dr. Thomas Pfaff Spring 2010 Whalen Symposium

  2. Maple Syrup Overview • Sugar maple • Found throughout the local region • NY produces 362,000 gallons per year • 40 liters of sap per 1 liter syrup • Sap flows when nights are below 30˚F and days are above 36˚F Image Source: http://www.cnr.vt.edu/dendro/dendrology/fall/biglist_frame.cfm

  3. Climate Change Scenarios • A2 • Heterogeneous world • Continuously increasing population • Self reliance and preservation of local identities • Economic development regionally • Slow technology change • Highest emissions in 2100 • B2 • Regional sustainability • Emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability • Continuously increasing population (lower than A2) • Diverse technology change (less rapid than B1) • A1 • Rapid economic growth • Global population increases until midcentury • New and more efficient technology • Emissions increase until 2080 • B1 • Sustainable development • Emphasis on global equality • Convergent world • Population peaks midcentury • Introduction of clean energies • Resource efficient technology Image source: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/sres/

  4. Current vs. Simulation Emissions • Current CO2 Levels (2010) 826.6 GtC • Project CO2 Levels (2100) • 1855.3 GtC

  5. Question • How will climate change effect the maple syrup industry in Ithaca?

  6. Methods • Analyze observed temperature data from NCAR • Check for optimal start date and sap flow days • Optimal start date – The first day that yields the most sap flow days for that season (Dec-May) • Sap flow day– A day the falls below 30˚F at night and rises above 36˚F during the day • Repeat for simulated data – “current” and “future” • Based on the A2 scenario (previous shown CO2 levels)

  7. Extreme Value Distribution • Maximum and minimum data – likely to be skewed • Similar to normal – not everything is normal! • Density equation – Normal • Density equation – Extreme Value • Three parameters

  8. What is the probability of having a sap flow day? Preliminary data suggests highest probability throughout March

  9. How will the start date change? Probability Current Density Projected Density Current Median: 85 ~ Feb 23 Future Median: 77 ~ Feb 15 Start Date In the future we expect to need to start 8 days earlier

  10. What happens to the number of sap flow days? Probability Current Density Mean: 22.9 days Standard Deviation: 0.9 days Number of Sap flow days No change notably due to climate change (time?)

  11. What if we start 10 days late? Probability Mean (ontime): 22.9 days Mean (late): 20.1 days Loss -12.2% Number of Sap flow days Loss in sap flow days expected to not change in the future!

  12. …20 days late? Current Density Probability Projected Density Mean (ontime): 22.9 days Mean (10 late): 20.1 days Mean (20 late): 16.3 days Loss- 28.8% Mean future (20 late): 16.1 days Loss – 29.7% Number of Sap flow days Minimal change in sap flow days from current model

  13. Conclusions • In the future we expect, • Earlier start date – 8 days earlier • Maximum number of sap flow days for a season (on time) not to change • Loss of of sap flow days • 10 late – remain the same as now in future (Loss of 12.2%) • 20 late – minimal differences between now and future (Loss of 28.8%)

  14. Questions?

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