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The Value of a Draft Pick

The Value of a Draft Pick. April, 2012. What is analytics?. Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge. Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]”. What are advanced stats?.

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The Value of a Draft Pick

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  1. The Value of a Draft Pick April, 2012

  2. What is analytics? Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge. Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]”

  3. What are advanced stats? • Corsi – Shots directed on goal minus shots directed on your own goal (proxy for possession) • Qualcomp – how good is the opposition that a player typically lines up against (how a coach is using a player) • Qualteam – how good are the teamates a player typically lines up with

  4. What are advanced stats? • PDO – a combination of team shooting percentage and save percentage when a player is on the ice (proxy for luck) • Zone Start – percentage of offensive zone faceoffs when a player is on the ice • Predicted Goals Scored – how many goals a player or team should have scored given shot location and an average goalie (attempts to remove luck from player performance)

  5. PavelDatsyukvs Henrik Sedin

  6. What are the options? Advanced stats services: Coleman Analytics (Mike Smith) – player performance by game situation Sports Analytics Institute – full service based on scoring chances, game situation, cost/win, etc. Blueline Analytics – player contract and value analysis

  7. What are the options? Advanced stats services: PUCKS – ranks players by different skillsets (skating, shooting, etc.) Decision Lens – Advanced game stats (where goals are scored from, etc.) tied to game video Puck Prospectus – Player and team projections aimed at bettors

  8. What are the options? Consultants/Freelancers: Gabe Desjardins, Vic Ferrari, etc. – advanced stats experts who evaluate trades, players, etc. on a fee for service basis In-house stats experts: Several teams employ analytics experts full-time to evaluate different aspects of their business

  9. Who’s using it? San Jose – have been using advanced analytics since the lockout. Dean Lombardi bragged that they built San Jose on Analytics and he would do the same in LA Calgary – hired a Director of Video and Statistical Analysis from Minnesota, and the Bruins stats guru John Weisbrod this year Montreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007

  10. Who’s using it? Pittsburg – subscribe to SAI Buffalo – Have analytics professionals on their payroll Montreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007 Vancouver –began using analytics soon after Mike Gillis took over Boston – rumored to have a very active analytics group Tampa – starting to invest in analytics Atlanta/Winnipeg –using analytics

  11. What can it be used for Player evaluation – offensive and defensive value, playing context Team evaluation – tactics, tendencies, cap efficiency Player negotiation Training and preparation Procurement and projection Tactics

  12. Traditional stats…

  13. …versus Advanced Stats

  14. Defence-Independent Save Percentage Slap shots on Brodeur at even strength Wrist shots on Thomas during power plays *Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers

  15. Goalie Rankings 2011 *Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers

  16. Player Value Metrics

  17. Player Value Metrics

  18. Player Value Metrics

  19. Principals behind GVT • The objective of hockey is to win • The key to winning is goal differential • Assigning goal differential to players gives us player value • Approximately 6 goals in differential is worth one win

  20. Kovalchuk vs. Kaleta 2010 • Adds ~15 goals/yr over past three years • Equates to ~2.5 wins • Paid ~$7.5 million • $3.5 million / win • Draws ~ +30 penalties/yr • Equates to ~5 goals, 0.8 wins • Paid ~600K • $0.72 million / win

  21. Let’s talk about the draft

  22. Max GVT by round Detroit Red Wings GVT

  23. Detroit GVT Drafting Detroit Red Wings GVT

  24. Minnesota GVT Drafting Minnesota Wild GVT

  25. Edmonton GVT Drafting Edmonton Oilers GVT

  26. San Jose GVT Drafting San Jose Sharks GVT

  27. Team Drafting Efficiency (Round 3+) Analysis of Point Share and GVT

  28. NHL Draft GVT Distribution San Jose Draft GVT Distribution Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars

  29. San Jose Draft GVT Distribution San Jose Draft GVT Distribution Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars

  30. Edmonton Draft GVT Distribution Edmonton GVT Distribution Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars

  31. Detroit Draft GVT Distribution Detroit GVT Distribution Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars

  32. Minnesota Draft GVT Distribution Minnesota GVT Distribution

  33. What about player origin?

  34. Average GVT by League Minnesota GVT Distribution

  35. Who Should the Oilers Draft This Year?

  36. GVT* *Max GVT in first seven years of NHL career

  37. Defensemen vs. Forwards

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