Energy Trends and Forecast

1. Energy Trends and Forecast ME 449 Sustainable Air Quality Washington University in St. Louis By: Scott Dixon, Chris Rolland, Sam Veague, Merit Vick Presented May 1, 2006

2. Energy Description • Energy is divided between 3 major sectors: • Residential/Commercial • Industrial • Transportation • (Electrical) • Weighted contributions to major sectors

3. Sector Descriptions • Residential/Commercial • Limitations in source data, related consumption trends • housing units, wholesale and retail businesses, social and educational institutions and governments • Industrial • Manufacturing, agriculture, mining including oil and gas extraction • Transportation • All vehicles whose primary purpose is transportation • Divided into categories: aviation, gas, diesel, and residual

4. Fuel Types • Different Fuel sources supply Energy • Coal • Natural Gas • Oil • Other Sources • (Renewable, Electricity*)

5. Energy – Emissions Connection • Emissions are a by-product of Energy consumption • Different sources lead to varying degrees of sulfur emissions • How clean is the source? • How efficient is its use?

6. Data Charts • Charts show Data from 1949 through 2004 • Includes analysis by sector and by fuel type • Data sources • Energy Information Administration (EIA) • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

7. The total energy used by Res/Com has quickly increased over the data range's time period, but no one source plays a significantly larger role than the others. • Coal, gas, and electrical sources all increased over the data range, but oil decreased around 1970 and remained constant after 1980.

8. Electrical consumption strongly increases as the dominant fuel source • Gas decreases but is still significant • Oil and direct coal remain negligible

9. The total TE sector trend shows large increases over the entire data range, save for one decrease over a short period of time • TE Gas experiences the largest increase of the TE sources  driver of total trend • Residual sources remain small and constant, diesel and aviation grow consistently but slowly

10. Oil is the overwhelming dominant fuel • Very small levels of gas, all others approach zero

11. The total consumption increased steadily over the data range, with the exception of a sharp decline between 1979 and 1984, and again between 2000 and 2001. There are corresponding decreases in each of the other sources during this time period, as well. • The most significant change can be seen in energy sources included in the "other" category.

12. The electricity component has been removed from the other category and distributed to its respective root sources. It can be seen, though, that the total energy in Figure 2 remains identical to that of Figure 1 as no new data has been added. • Changes in shapes of both the coal and the other curve, other curve is reduced by a factor of three, industrial sector consumes large amounts of electrical energy derived from coal..

13. Electric is the largest fraction, but growth seems to level off • Oil and gas are level • Coal decreases  approaches zero

14. Coal and other are drivers of electric energy growth • Oil and gas have smaller contributions. Gas is growing slowly after a slight decline through 1980s, oil has leveled off since 1980

15. Coal is dominant fuel source • Other is gradually increasing while oil and gas are gradually decreasing

16. Res/Com is the dominant user of Electric Energy, and is steadily increasing fraction • IE has significant fraction, but is steadily decreasing • Transportation uses a negligible fraction

17. All three sectors add a significant contribution to energy consumption • Res/Com increased at the fastest, most consistent rate, while transportation increased more gradually • Industrial increased at a fast rate, but saw sharp decreases around 1980 and again around 2000

18. Transportation historically decreased at greatest rate, while using the greatest Bbtu/$ • All three sectors decrease through projection

19. While there is considerable variation in the data for each sector, the decreasing trends occur within the same time periods for each of the metal production sectors.

20. Summary • Res/Com • large growing energy consumption • coal and natural gas are major drivers • consumes largest fraction of electric energy • Industrial • historically large energy consumption, variability brings total below Res/Com • coal is still significant and increasing (with EL) • coal, oil and gas are major drivers • decreasing fraction of electric energy

21. Summary • Transportation • oil is major driver in energy consumption • negligible fraction of electric energy • significant contribution to total, but smaller than other sectors • Electric Contribution • provides energy consumed by major three • major drivers are coal and other

22. Conclusion • All three energy sectors are increasing • Energy/Economy factors are all decreasing • Transportation shows largest decreasing rate of change • Indicates decrease in energy use per economy

23. Additional Analysis • Make trend projections for fuel source and sector energy consumption charts, based on model synthesis projections • Analyze links between Energy, Emissions, and Economy results • Look for meaning in trend results • Vary factors to test impact on trends

24. References • Energy Information Administration (EIA): http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/datadefinitions/Guideforwebind.htm • Energy Consumption By Sector: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/consump.html • Transportation Energy Data Book: http://cta.ornl.gov/data/chapter2.shtml Questions???