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Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia

Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia. S. Nilsson, a E.A. Vaganov, b V.A. Rozhkov, b A. Shvidenko, a V. Stolbovoi, a I. McCallum, a M. Jonas, a and M. Obersteiner a ( a IIASA; b Russia). GCP Regional Carbon Budgets WS Beijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004. 1.

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Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia

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  1. Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia S. Nilsson,a E.A. Vaganov,b V.A. Rozhkov,bA. Shvidenko,a V. Stolbovoi,a I. McCallum,aM. Jonas,a and M. Obersteinera(a IIASA; b Russia) GCP Regional Carbon Budgets WSBeijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004 1

  2. Full Carbon Accounting for Russia (1988–1992) IIASA Forestry Program 5

  3. Some layers of the Integrated Land Information System IIASA Forestry Program

  4. Terrestrial Full Corg Balance for Russia (1988–1992) A • 351 • -(176) NPP: 4354 ( 118) HR + Ant: 4026 ( 131) Dep: 23 (7) Dep_H: 3 (1) V 306 (156) Dis: 143 (16) Con: 682 (41) Dep_P: 20 (7) Det: 3222 (93) -38 -(155) P Plab: -69 -(±155) Pstab: 31 (±9) SRO: 9 (3) HR: 3201 (123) CSRO: 12 (4) DOS: 70 (15) URO: 50 (13) Leak: 20 (7) RO: 62 (14) 20 (7) L H 62 (14) IIASA Forestry Program 6

  5. CARBON FLUXES Vegetational Fluxes (1990) tC/ha Soil Fluxes (1990) tC/ha IIASA Forestry Program 23

  6. Total N2O 1990 Total Emissions 0.64 Tg N2O IIASA Forestry Program 15

  7. CH4 1990 Total Emissions 48 Tg CH4 Big variation in the fossil emission in 1990: 5–16 Tg CH4 IIASA Forestry Program 16

  8. CO2 Global Warming Potentials in CO2 Equivalents over 100 Year Time Horizon of Terrestrial Emissions and Fossil Fuels of Russia in 1990 Combined GHG GWP Effect CH4 Global Warming Potentials in Tg (CO2 equivalents) 1990 N2O IIASA Forestry Program Nature neutralizing ~20% of industrial emissions 17

  9. Russian Terrestrial FCA: 1988–1992Average Annual Atmospheric Sink Strength -0.35± 0.10 (This Study, 2003) -0.15± 0.12 (Nilsson et al., 2000) Terrestrial Sink Strength [PgC yr-1] 7

  10. Conclusions for 1990 Estimates • Modified systems view with respect to soils and inclusion of more detailed lateral and horizontal fluxes resulted in doubling the net terrestrial sink capacity. Combination of process based methods with inventories • The assessment of the atmospheric/terrestrial exchange is sensitive to small changes in surface and sub-surface fluxes • The uncertainties are substantially reduced • Underlining the need for thorough and full accounting including all fluxes IIASA Forestry Program 8

  11. Top down ….. Bottom Up (cit. Daniel Muridiyarso) IIASA Forestry Program

  12. Up Scaling of the Terrestrial Sink Strength Bottom-up Results for Russia Valid for the Northern Extra-tropical Region PgC•yr-1 Inverse Modeling Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia -1.45 - 0.79 Up Scaled Bottom-up Values Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia -1.22- 0.77 IIASA Forestry Program 9

  13. Conclusions • Our full C account of Russia is closer to atmospheric inversion than existing C inventory + model techniques • Combined top down–bottom up based approach has smaller uncertainties than pure top down approach • The combination of bottom up (FCA) with top down (atmospheric inversion) is the way to achieve ultimate verification • No “Missing Sink” IIASA Forestry Program 10

  14. Trends in Total Carbon (TgC) Emissions in Russia 1988–2002 TgC Fossil Total Terrestrial -351 -689 -518 IIASA Forestry Program 25

  15. Vegetation fire in Russia in 1971-2002 IIASA Forestry Program

  16. INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA) IIASA Forestry Program

  17. Carbon D Fluxes (Tg C) IIASA Forestry Program

  18. Summarized assessment of C fluxes due to disturbances for 1961-2002 (Tg C yr-1) • Logging and forest products 83.1 [56 to 99] • Veg Fire (direct emissions) 69.7 [12 to 229] • Veg Fire (post D emissions) 68.9 [62 to 81] • Veg Fire – total 138.6 [81to 303] • Biotic 75.7 [62 to 89] • Abiotic 27.5 [16-36] • Overall total 325 [262 to 479] IIASA Forestry Program

  19. Facit • Bringing the biosphere into a carbon trading system adds substantial uncertainty and risk • Lemmons market • Compliance in a stochastic environment IIASA Forestry Program

  20. Weather Landscape Fire Zoogenic Denuadation Climate Change Site Degradation Pathogenic Cryogenic Volcanogenic Classification of D in boreal forests Climatic Geomorpho- genic Biogenic Pyrogenic Anthropogenic • Pollution • Industrial Land • Transformation • Forest • Management Genus Type IIASA Forestry Program

  21. MODELLING OF CARBON FLUXES DUE TO DISTURBANCE TO THE ATMOSPHERE Total carbon flux caused by disturbance r during year t1 TCFr,t1 = DFr,t1 + PDFr,t<t1, where DFr,t1 is direct emission during year t1, and PDFr,t<t1 is post disturbance biogenic flux IIASA Forestry Program

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