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Pneumococcal Vaccine AVI version 0.1

Pneumococcal Vaccine AVI version 0.1. Stefano Malvolti Director Strategic Vaccine Supply AVI Project August 25 th, 2009. Objectives of today. Provide overview on AVI strategic forecasting process and responsibility for Pneumococcal vaccine

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Pneumococcal Vaccine AVI version 0.1

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  1. Pneumococcal VaccineAVI version 0.1 Stefano Malvolti Director Strategic Vaccine Supply AVI Project August 25th, 2009

  2. Objectives of today • Provide overview on AVI strategic forecasting process and responsibility for Pneumococcal vaccine • Provide overview on AVI version 0.1 Pneumococcal vaccine strategic forecast assumptions • Discuss AVI version 0.1 strategic forecast results and variability • Address questions from the audience CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  3. Accelerated Vaccine Introduction (AVI) GAVI’s “product launch” project for Pneumo and Rota Sufficient and appropriate vaccine Donors willing to fund Accelerated Vaccine Introduction Strategic Vaccine Supply “Support and trigger evidence-based decisions that increase effectiveness and efficiency of introduction activities of the AVI project by providing high-quality, consistent, timely and transparent strategic demand forecasts for Pneumococcal and Rotavirus vaccines, ensuring seamless interface with UNICEF procurement plans and providing single point of contact for all strategic forecasting information” Sustainable introduction Informed country decision Country willingness to introduce CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  4. SVS sub-team ensure input from all partner organisations Core Team: Ann Ottosen UNICEF SD Deborah Atherley AVI-TAC (Rota ADIP) Gill Meyers WHO Lois Privor-Dumm AVI-TAC (Pneumo ADIP) Raj Kumar GAVI Program Delivery Soleyman Kone WHO Stefano Malvolti* AVI-TAC Tania Cernuschi** GAVI Finance / AMC Ad-hoc support: Marta Gacic-Dobo WHO Peter Hansen GAVI * Chair ** Pneumo only CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  5. Forecasting process designed to ensure multiple input and verification points Feedback Assumption owners provide input SVS benchmarks assumption SVS runs forecast Feedback SVS consolidates all countries (with and w/o India) SVS Sub team reviews and approves draft SVS Director presents to PLT for approval Feedback AVI AMT / GAVI reviews andapproves Version Locked SVS Director distributes CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  6. SVS model kept simple to focus on validation of key parameters and events Events Demography module Target population Events Demand Forecast Dosage Events Intro Date Required Supply (SDF) Events DTP3 Analogue Target Coverage Coverage Wastage Events Hep Mono Analogue Buffer Stocks Uptake CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  7. Partner organizations do contribute actively to assumption validation CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  8. Objectives of today • Provide overview on AVI strategic forecasting process and responsibility for Pneumococcal vaccine • Provide overview on AVI version 0.1 Pneumococcal vaccine strategic forecast assumptions • Discuss AVI version 0.1 strategic forecast results and variability • Address questions from the audience CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  9. All base case assumptions need to be met, the ver. 0.1 forecast to materialize CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  10. All base case assumptions need to be met, the ver. 0.1 forecast to materialize CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  11. 13 countries already approved and 2 with conditional approval * Conditional approvals in May 2009 CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  12. All base case assumptions need to be met, the ver. 0.1 forecast to materialize CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  13. AVI effort will allow Pneumo to reach a faster uptake much earlier than Penta Note - year 1 for Penta = 2001, for Pneumo = 2009 CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  14. Most volatile and impactful assumptions tested to provide sense of forecast variability 1 50% of application are not successful at their first presentation – delay covers also cold chain issues in the concerned countries CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  15. Objectives of today • Provide overview on AVI strategic forecasting process and responsibility for Pneumococcal vaccine • Provide overview on AVI version 0.1 Pneumococcal vaccine strategic forecast assumptions • Discuss AVI version 0.1 strategic forecast results and variability • Address questions from the audience CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  16. Base case required supply to pass 100m doses in 2014 and 200m doses in 2018 Call for offers reference Forecast includes Rwanda and Gambia PCV7 doses in 2009-2010 donated by Wyeth, and PAHO demand CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  17. 72 countries coverage to exceed 50% in 2015 and 80% in 2018 CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  18. Downside scenario between -40% and -25% of basecase, upside between +80% and +15% India phased introduction India introduction CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  19. Top 4 large countries demand to start weighting 50% of total starting from 2019 CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  20. Faster uptake because of earlier introductions & India, lower peak because of demographics Anticipated India introduction in 2014  This comparison does not include wastage and buffer stocks CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  21. Objectives of today • Provide overview on AVI strategic forecasting process and responsibility for Pneumococcal vaccine • Provide overview on AVI version 0.1 Pneumococcal vaccine strategic forecast assumptions • Discuss AVI version 0.1 strategic forecast results and variability • Address questions from the audience CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

  22. Thanks to all of you for the attention Courtesy of PATH CONFIDENTIAL - Pneumo forecast - AVI ver 0.1

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