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Cover. ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Impact of the Oil Shocks Cristina Mocci Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance cristina.mocci@tesoro.it UNESCO Rome, 2006 19 th June. Outline World oil demand and supply Oil price trends and volatility EU energy policies

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  1. Cover ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Impact of the Oil Shocks Cristina Mocci Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance cristina.mocci@tesoro.it UNESCO Rome, 2006 19th June

  2. Outline World oil demand and supply Oil price trends and volatility EU energy policies Policy interventions on demand/supply side Impact of the Oil Shocks Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  3. Impact of the Oil Shocks (1) – World oil demand and supply Impact of the Oil Shocks (1) • World oil demand and supply Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  4. Main Oil Producers, 2003 Sources: IEA, British Petroleum Review, Oil and Gas Journal, IMF calculations Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  5. Global Oil Demand, 1971-2004 Global Oil Demand and Real Oil Price, 1971-2004 Sources: IEA and IMF calculations Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  6. Consumption by Countries and Regions, 2004 Source: IEA and IMF calculations Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  7. China’s Oil Demand Forecast through 2030 China’s Oil Demand Forecast through 2030 Source: World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  8. USA Dependence on Imported Oil, 1970-2025 USA Dependence on Imported Oil, 1970-2025 Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2004, IEA Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  9. Oil Supply of China, 2005 Oil Supply of China, 2005 Source: General Administration of Customs of China Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  10. USA Imports from Persian Gulf countries, 2003 USA Imports from Persian Gulf countries, 2003 Source: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, March 2004 Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  11. Proven Oil Reserves, end 2003 Sources: IEA, British Petroleum Review, Oil and Gas Journal, IMF calculations Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  12. Crude Oil Dependence Source: GLOBALSTAT, ENERDATA Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  13. Oil Intensities in Selected Countries and Regions, 1970-2004 Oil Intensities in Selected Countries and Regions Sources: IEA, OECD analytical database, IMF calculations Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  14. GDP by Sector- Italy, 2004-2030 Source: Ministry for Productive Activities methodoligy, Italy Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  15. Oil Intensity by Sector-Italy, 2004-2030 Source: Ministry for Productive Activities methodoligy, Italy Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  16. Final Consumption – Italy (Ktoe) Source: Ministry for Productive Activities methodoligy, Italy Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  17. Impact of the Oil Shocks (2) – Oil price trends and volatility Impact of the Oil Shocks (2) • Oil price trends and volatility Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  18. Brent crude oil prices, 1970-2004 Brent crude oil prices, 1970-2004 Sources: IMF and Bloomberg Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  19. Futures Price of Oil 1, 5, 12, 18 Position, 2001-2005 Futures Price of Oil 1, 5, 12, 18 Position, 2001-2005 Source: Ecowin Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  20. Global Oil Demand and Real Oil Price, 1971-2004 Global Oil Demand and Real Oil Price, 1971-2004 Sources: IEA and IMF calculations Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  21. OPEC Excess Capacity and Price Sources: IEA, US DOE, IMF calculations Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  22. Oil Price and Industry Price-Italy Source: Quaderno dei prodotti petroliferi, MEF Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  23. Impact of the Oil Shocks (3) – EU energy policies Impact of the Oil Shocks (3) • EU energy policies Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  24. Role of oil in the EU 37 per cent of EU energy sources 0,6 per cent of world’s oil proven reserves Which policy ? Role of oil in the EU Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  25. Reduce oil consumption Improve energy efficiency Diversify energy sources Develop new technologies Reduce the shortage risk Geographical supply diversification Reduce political instability Improve strategical reserves General objectives General Objectives Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  26. European Law Directive 2001/77/ECPromotion of electricity from renewable energy sourcesDirective 2003/30/ECPromotion of bio and renewable fuels for transportRegulation (EC) No 1228/2003Cross-border exchange in electricityCommission Recommendation (various)Agreements with ACEA, JAMA, KAMA to improve cars fuel economy Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  27. Policy interventions on demand/supply side Impact of the Oil Shocks (4) – Policy interventions on demand/supply side Impact of the Oil Shocks (4) Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  28. Short term Better use of existing oil reserves (IEA Agreement – EU Regulations) Improve transparency on oil data related to strategic stocks and reserves (JODI) Long term Larger investments in exploration, drilling, refining and transport Supply Side Interventions Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  29. Short term Behavioural changes in mobility giving several alternatives to citizens (see IEA-OECD, Saving Oil in a Hurry, Paris, 2005) Long term Increase use of alternative fuels Demand Side Interventions Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  30. Short run Technology improvement in the transport sector Social policies in favour of lower income household Medium-Long run Strengthening of co-operation with producer countries Develop alternative renewable sources at competitive prices Additional Policy Options Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

  31. Some questions Are oil forecasts more reliable than the haruspex’s prophecies ? Are oil reserve data reliable ? What is the problem ? Lack of refining and transport infrastructures or production capacity (or both) ? Will be oil production able to meet the demand of new economies at a low price ? “Peak-oil theory” or a temporary trouble ? What about the future? Cristina Mocci – Impact of the Oil Shocks

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