The Global Framework for Climate Services Filipe Lúcio Director GFCS Office flucio@wmot

1. The Global Framework for Climate ServicesFilipe LúcioDirector GFCS Officeflucio@wmo.int www.gfcs-climate.org/ Weather • Climate • Water

2. History of the GFCS • Third World Climate Conference (2009):GFCS established as a UN-led initiative spearheaded by WMO • High Level Task Force (2010)formed to propose elements for the Framework. “Climate knowledge for action: A global framework for climate services – empowering the most vulnerable” as the basis for GFCS • 2011: Task team (to develop the Implementation Plan) set up and GFCS office created • WMO Extraordinary Congress (2012): Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services (IBCS) was established and the GFCS implementation plan was adopted for subsequent consideration of the IBCS. • IBCS-1: First Meeting of the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services (July 2013) Weather • Climate • Water

3. The GFCS Goal Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice on the global, regional and national scale Weather • Climate • Water

4. Why a Framework for Climate Services? • Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services. Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced Climate Services. Weather • Climate • Water

5. Why a Framework for Climate Services? It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines, actors and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources…) for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings Weather • Climate • Water

6. Concern... Strong Wind Coastal Marine Hazards Tropical Cyclones Heavy rainfall / Flood Heatwaves Need for > coping mechanisms Energy Water Resource Management Food security Transport Intensity Industry Health Urban areas Vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing Frequency Weather • Climate • Water

7. What it used to be... Within every society, there is a certain capacity to cope with hazards Climate variability and change increase uncertainty, can increase or decrease this coping range. Coping range Probability P (x) Drought Flooding X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.) Source: Wilhite 2006 Weather • Climate • Water

8. Seamless hydrometeorological and climate services Weather • Climate • Water

9. What are Climate Services? The accumulation of knowledge about the past, present and future of the climate system; The development and delivery of a range of "products" and advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems Historical climate data sets Climate monitoring Climate watches Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions Climate change projections The use and the effective application of these products to help achieve the desired results. A Climate service: Providing climate information in a way that assists decision making by individuals and organizations. A service requires appropriate engagement along with an effective access mechanism and must respond to user needs. Weather • Climate • Water

10. Decision-making across timescales • Begin planning and monitoring of forecasts • Update contingency plans • Sensitize communities • Enable early-warning systems • Continue monitoring • Adjust plans • Warn communities • Local preparation activities • Activate response • Instruction to communities to evacuate, if needed Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get Mark Twain Weather • Climate • Water

11. Application for Agriculture 11 Weather • Climate • Water Food Security Outlook for Horn of Africa based on seasonal forecast

12. New trial user products: onset prediction and monitoring Early onset predicted most likely Early onset occurred Probability of early ‘onset’ Probability of late ‘onset’ Prediction is based on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average Greater Horn of Africa, short-rains season 2011 – 1 month lead time prediction CSRP monitoring product: Observed time of ‘onset‘ (in days difference from long-term average • Assessment over retrospective cases indicates forecast can discriminate early/late onset in ~70% of cases (Tanzania/Kenya) • Onset forecasts being trialled at regional centres in East, West and southern Africa Weather • Climate • Water

13. Disaster Risk Management WEF, 2011 Weather • Climate • Water

14. Building Resilience • WEF, 2011 (adapted) Early Warning Weather • Climate • Water

15. GFCS Pillars & Priority Areas Weather • Climate • Water

16. Major needs • Capacity development of professionals and communities on production and effective application of climate services • Improved, standardized, and quality controlled sector monitoring data that is compatible with environmental and climate information; • Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and cost-effective use of climate information for sector decisions; • Research and prediction of sector impacts associated with climate variability and climate change, in collaboration with the climate research community; • Development and deployment of early warning systems appropriate to the sector and user communities; • Sustainable financial and technical support; • Better collaboration with the climate community for interdisciplinary policy, practice and research. Weather • Climate • Water

17. Domains of operation of GFCS Global Regional National 17 Weather • Climate • Water

18. WMO RCC Status Worldwide NEACC North America Initiative BCC TCC ACMAD AGRRHYMET ICPAC CIIFEN Designated RCCs SADC-CSC Designated RCC-Networks RCCs in Demonstration Phase RCC-Networks in Demo Phase RCCs Proposed RCC-Networks Proposed Weather • Climate • Water

19. Regional Climate Outlook Forums-RCOFs Weather • Climate • Water

20. GFCS implementation priorities Capacity development: Linking climate service users and providers. Developing national capacity in developing countries. Strengthening regional climate capabilities. High-profile projects to address gaps across pillars and priority areas; Observations and data recovery in data sparse areas; Partnerships across sectors and disciplines for addressing gaps and priorities; Governance, leadership and management capacity to take the Framework forward. Weather • Climate • Water

21. Approval of Implementation Plan and Compendium of GFCS Projects Establishment of subsidiary bodies to IBCS Election of Chair and Vice-chair and nomination of the members of the Management Committee Financial matters Outcomes of IBCS-1 1 July 2013: Dialogue on Climate Action 2-5 July 2013: 1st Session of Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services Weather • Climate • Water

22. 40 project proposals for a total of CHF 140 million From 1 to 10 years From CHF 0.1 to 40 million Contribution modalities Direct contribution to GFCS Trust Fund Selection of Projects for implementation Designation of activities contributing to GFCS based on a set Criteria Implementing partners UN: FAO, UNDP, UNESCO, UNESCO/IOC, UNISDR, UNITAR, WB, WFP, WHO, WMO Others: GWP, IFRC Implementation approach Priorities • Reducing vulnerability to climate hazards • Advancing development goals • Mainstreaming climate information for decision-making • Engagement of providers and users • Maximizing utility of climate service infrastructure Weather • Climate • Water

23. Early implementation Regional workshops for the most vulnerable countries South East Asia, Caribbean SWPI (Cook Islands, 31st Mar-4 April), SEE (TBD), Latin America (28 Juy – 1 Aug, Costa Rica) Pilot projects in Burkina Belize, Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Senegal, South Weather • Climate • Water

24. GFCS Adaptation Programme in Africa Focus Countries Tanzania and Malawi Programme runs for 3 years Total budget of USD 10m Funded by Partners Weather • Climate • Water

25. Programme for Implementing GFCS at Regional and National Scales Focus Countries Pacific Islands: American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, French Polynesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Caledonia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna. Caribbean: Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent & The Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago South Asia: India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan and Myanmar Also supporting Climate Service for the Arctic Polar Region Climate Services in South Asia/Third Pole Region Global Action on Integrated Drought Management Capacity Building for Climate Sciences Total budget - 6.2 m USD Funded by Weather • Climate • Water

26. Regional Importance of research and science Role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums Maximization of limited resources through regional approach Exploring gaps, capacity development, and strategies for engaging stakeholders National Systematic dialogue with users Understanding in-country capabilities Identification of data and observation requirements Identification of priority research questions Building sector-specific capacities Leveraging enabling factors Lessons learned from regional workshops and national consultations Weather • Climate • Water

27. 10 Pre-requisites Weather • Climate • Water

28. Climate Services: a revolution in the application of climate science • From mitigation to mitigation and adaptation • From few to many customers/users/stakeholders • Global century scenarios to regional predictions, days to decades ahead • Climate change to climate change and climate variability • Broad climate to characteristics of weather including extremes and impacts • Operational delivery– regularly updated monitoring, forecasts, products & services Weather • Climate • Water

29. Benefits Better water resources management as inputs to hydrological characterisation (e.g. precipitation, evaporation, etc) in planning, design, development and operation of water supplies in flood and floodplain management and control design and operation of irrigation and drainage systems; for studies associated with power generation, fisheries an conservation, navigation and recreation. Improved disaster risk management Planning and emergency preparedness and response to extreme events Siting of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, etc Improved support to planning and operations in the health sector Risk Assessment/health system risk management Epidemiological Surveillance & environmental Monitoring Health Services (heat health warning systems, malaria waning system, etc…) Improved agricultural planning and management Better drought and flood management Improved food security Weather • Climate • Water

30. Summing-up • 3 closely-related issues: • Adaptation to climate variability and change • Disaster risk reduction • Sustainable development & societal benefits • Requirements: • Reinforcing developing countries' adaptive capabilities • Multidisciplinary partnerships across all sectors • Capacity building to be seen as an investment, not an expenditure A key opportunity: • A Global Framework for Climate Services Weather • Climate • Water

31. Thank you for your attention www.gfcs-climate.org/ Weather • Climate • Water