research for a sustainable future

1. research for a sustainable future An Australian Vision for Water: Looking ForwardMax FinlaysonInstitute for Land, Water & Society, Charles Sturt University, Australia

2. Contents Developing a vision – a common view1. Social-ecological systems2. The Australian water system3. Climate variability4. Environmental change5. Responding to change /establishing baselines 6. Looking forward – the hard questions

3. Developing a vision We have been talking about sharing and developing water [resources] since Federation. Do we have a common view? Is this adequate for the future? Who should have a say?We have strategies, agencies, authorities, commissions and water sharing plans …. And it is still contested …..

4. ……to provide water management in the Macquarie and Cudgegong Regulated Rivers Water Source that supports a healthy environment and a prosperous community. ……water sharing plan suspended 2007-2011

5. National Water Initiative - blueprint for water reform An agreement to achieve a nationally compatible market, regulatory and planning-based system to manage surface and groundwater resources for rural and urban use, and optimise economic, social and environmental outcomes. A shared commitment by governments to increase the efficiency of Australia's water use, leading to greater certainty for investment and productivity, for rural and urban communities, and for the environment.

6. Have these efforts provided a widely accepted vision for water? Yes - let’s give credit where it is due. The text is in place – based around sustainable social, economic and ecological system/s, with sharing, equity and transparency. But what does sustainability mean? Can we show what has worked? How do we cope with emerging issues (CSG)? How do we deal with uncertainty and complexity? What does the future hold?

7. 1. Socio-ecological systems Water management operates within a complex social-ecological system – realities of the system need to be acknowledged. Uncertainty is part of it – mange with uncertainty.Human activities have influenced much of the land around rivers, wetlands etc. They are impacted directly by the structures that regulate water to support our economies.

8. Managing the complexity of social-ecological river systems • The human dimension is fundamental • There are neither natural systems without people nor social systems without nature • Social and ecological systems are inter-connected and co-evolving across time and spatial scales

9. The ecological focus Focusing on the ecological side only, as a basis for decision-making for sustainability, simplifies reality to the extent that the results become incomplete and the conclusions questioned. Doing the natural science first with the social dimension added on later risks missing essential feedbacks – the simplicity of approach undermines the need to address the complexity.

10. The social focus Resource and environmental management studies have often focused on investigating processes within the social domain only, treating the ecosystem as an external “black box“ that will look after itself. Assuming that if the social system performs well or is well organized it will also manage ecosystems in a sustainable fashion is risky and naive. The “box” is complex and interconnected with our societies. We have already changed the “box”.

11. 2. The Australian water system It is a cycle of many parts – atmospheric, surface/ground water – and processes, and affected by human activities far and near. Most of our effort has been on the surface water.

12. Permanently and seasonally flowing rivers and water bodies Most rivers, streams and lakes do not always have flowing water in them, even in the tropics. Large changes in flow can significantly alter rivers and wetlands, yet these are important historical sources of water for people and industry. Lockhart Valley, 19/06/03 Mortlock River North, lakes on valley floor, 27/05/05 SOE 2011 Yenyening Lakes- 22/12/03

13. Water availability and use Australia uses about 5% of its total renewable freshwater resources, compared with 20% for the USA and 43% for Italy (2006 data). Regional distribution of use is highly uneven with some regions extracting half the available water. Per person, we use more water than most other countries of the OECD. Our population and water demands are unevenly distributed. SOE 2011

14. Irrigation – important industry; dams 40% food from the MD Basin; 70% of this from the 2% of land that is irrigated

15. Weirs Weirs in NSW: 4,000 weirs within the Murray Darling Basin alone Source: NSW Dept Primary Industries

16. Coal seam gas - fracking

17. 3. Climate variability

18. Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre-industrial era Projected temperatures during 21st C are significantly higher than at any time during the last 1000 years IPCC

19. Climate change projections - complex and uncertain outcomes BoM

20. BoM

22. BoM

23. Water inflow and volume in Murray-Darling Basin MDBA

24. Southwestern Australia One million hectares affected by dryland salinisation; dominant driver - land use change average rainfall decline 10-20% caused 40-60% decline in dam inflow WA Water Corporation J Davis

25. Sept Oct-Jan Feb-mid March mid March - April Records of Little Curlew across Australia in different seasons

26. 4. Environmental change State of the Environment Reporting – water quality and biodiversity declineHighly variable environment with ‘boom and bust’ responses to rainfall

27. Salinity, 2000/10 SOE 2011

28. Salinisation and loss of farm land Salinisation Saline intrusion in coastal areas – loss of cultural values & biodiversity

29. Total phosphorus, 2000/10 SOE 2011

30. Total nitrogen, 2000/10 SOE 2011

31. Evidence of change in state in response to nutrient enrichment in wetlands on the Swan Coastal Plain Western Australia Algal bloom - northern section of Herdsmans Lake, December, 2002 Both states present 50g/L to150 g/L total P positive feedback mechanisms evident (J Davis) Algal bloom- Emu Lakes, Ballajura October 2003

32. Number of freshwater fish species listed as threatened under the EPBC Act, by drainage division There are approximately 280 species of freshwater fish in Australia SOE 2011

33. Number of frog species listed as threatened under the EPBC Act, by drainage division. Frogs are often proposed as a general indicator of ecosystem health. There are approx 208 species of frog in Australia. SOE 2011

34. 5. Responding to change /establishing baselines Major efforts to restore rivers/wetlandsLand and water have changed – irrevocably?Pressures still mounting What is a realistic baseline or future for rivers and wetlands?

40. What is a healthy river or wetland?What can be restored? Many views about what is healthy - the question becomes what is the reference or baseline?

41. Mouth of the River Murray – drought years • Reduced inflows from river • Water levels in Lake below sea level, first time in 7,500 years • Exposure of acid sulfate soils (pH<4) • Declining waterbird populations • Reduced connectivity within the ecosystem

42. Long established structures – changed the ecological character and turned lower Murray into a freshwater system rather than estuarine. Reference condition based on freshwater characteristics in lakes; previously estuarine

43. Measuring river/wetland health • Current - ecological measurements – comparisons to pre-European historical reference sites or conditions to establish ecological health • Proposed – social-ecological approach - where feasible use an undisturbed historic baseline and a new ecosystem baseline (includes human pressure) which represents the maximum biodiversity potential of contemporary ecosystems

44. 6. Looking forward Developing a vision – a common view ?A socio-ecological approach to restoring/managing the water system, under a changing and variable climate, within bounds of environmental change, and future looking reference conditions. Driven by informed and forward looking communities supported by governments and is participatory (not consultative!)

45. Some hard questions • Do we understand Australian river systems? • How are we ensuring efficient water use for irrigation and environmental purposes? • Do we need more dams or better use existing dams? • What are the opportunities for recharging groundwater? • How is the MDB Plan going? What have we learnt? When will we see the dividends? • What are the socio-economic costs of reduced irrigation? • What are the socio-economic/cultural benefits of environmental flows? • Where does coal seam gas fit into the water equation? • Will we see more urban demands for inland water?

46. Thank you