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What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States?

What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States?. David McDowall School of Criminal Justice University at Albany, SUNY 135 Western Avenue Albany, NY 12222 mcdowall@albany.edu. Rates of Murder, Rape, Robbery, Assault, Burglary, and Motor Vehicle Theft, 1933-2009.

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What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States?

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  1. What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States? David McDowall School of Criminal Justice University at Albany, SUNY 135 Western Avenue Albany, NY 12222 mcdowall@albany.edu

  2. Rates of Murder, Rape, Robbery, Assault, Burglary, and Motor Vehicle Theft, 1933-2009

  3. Equations for time series processes Stationary process: Yt = b0 + at Random walk: Yt = Yt-1+ at Deterministic trend: Yt = b0 + b1(timet) + at Stochastic trend: Yt = b0 + Yt-1+ at

  4. Homicide Rate, 1925-2000 Model: ΔYt = b0 + b1(ΔYt-1) + et Parameter Estimate Standard Error t b0 -.0061 .0121 -.51 b1 .4567 .1048 4.36 _____________________________________________________ Rape Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔYt = b0 + b1(ΔYt-1) + et Parameter Estimate Standard Error t b0 .0298 .0110 2.72 b1 .2323 .1205 1.93 ____________________________________________________ Robbery Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔYt = b0 + b1(ΔYt-1) + et Parameter Estimate Standard Error t b0 .0116 .0199 .56 b1 .4708 .1034 4.55 _____________________________________________________ Assault Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔYt = b0 + b1(ΔYt-1) + b2(ΔYt-2) + et Parameter Estimate Standard Error t b0 .0286 .0130 2.20 b1 .3016 .1188 2.54 b2 .2934 .1188 2.47 _____________________________________________________ Burglary Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔYt = b0 + b1(ΔYt-1) + et Parameter Estimate Standard Error t b0 .0147 .0149 .99 b1 .4827 .1046 4.61 _____________________________________________________ Motor Vehicle Theft Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔYt = b0 + b1(ΔYt-1) + et Parameter Estimate Standard Error t b0 .0122 .0183 .66 b1 .5086 .1047 4.86

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