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Energy Action Plan Natural Gas Update

Energy Action Plan Natural Gas Update. California Public Utilities Commission California Energy Commission Randy Roesser December 8, 2008. NATURAL GAS PRICES. Henry Hub Daily Spot Prices. $13.31 July 2. CA Natural Gas Spot Prices. $12.82 Jun 30. U.S. Natural Gas Futures Prices.

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Energy Action Plan Natural Gas Update

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  1. Energy Action PlanNatural Gas Update California Public Utilities Commission California Energy Commission Randy Roesser December 8, 2008

  2. NATURAL GASPRICES

  3. Henry Hub Daily Spot Prices $13.31 July 2

  4. CA Natural Gas Spot Prices $12.82 Jun 30

  5. U.S. Natural Gas Futures Prices

  6. NG-Oil Spot Prices EURO / USD

  7. NATURAL GASDEMAND

  8. U.S. Natural Gas Demand Source: EIA November 2008 STEO

  9. NATURAL GASSUPPLY

  10. U.S. Natural Gas Supply Source: EIA November 2008 STEO

  11. Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin 6 Kingsgate Coleman 1 5 5 Stanfield 5 9 Malin 5 Rocky Mountain Basin 13 7 3 8 San Juan Basin 5 14 4 2 Anadarko Basin Topock 10 11 12 2 2 Blythe Permian Basin Major Production Basins ServingWestern US, Canada and California • 1 ANG • 2 El Paso • 3 Kern River • 4 Mojave • 5 Northwest • 6 NOVA • 7 Paiute • 8 PG&E • 9 PG&E GT-NW • 10 SoCalGas • 11 SDG&E • 12 Transwestern • 13 Tuscarora • 14 Southern Trails California Energy Commission Staff, 2007

  12. Proposed Natural Gas PipelinesRocky Mountains To West Coast • Kern River: 0.2 to 1.0 bcf/d expansion of existing 1,650 mile 1.7 bcf/d pipeline from Wyoming to Southern California. In-service date: late 2010 • Ruby Pipeline: 680 mile, 1.2 bcf/d capacity line from Opal, Wyoming to Malin, Oregon. In-service date: early 2011 • Sunstone Pipeline: 585 mile, 1.2 bcf/d capacity line from Opal, Wyoming to Stanfield, Oregon. In-service date: late 2011

  13. LNG Imports

  14. World LNG Estimated November 2008 Prices UK $ 12.60 Belgium $ 12.50 Cove Point $ 6.51 Spain $ 13.10 Korea $ 13.00 Japan $ 13.00 Lake Charles $ 5.63 Altamira $ 6.46 India $ 13.00 Prepared by CEC Staff Nov 2008

  15. Lower 48 States Shale Production 1st Quarter 2008 Average - MMcf/d Bakken Shale 69 Antrim Shale 356 Baxter Shale 14 Marcellus Shale N/A Pierre Shale 1 Fayetteville Shale 496 Woodford Shale 180 New Albany Shale N/A Huron Shale N/A Barnett Shale 3,935 Haynesville Shale 58 1st Quarter 2008 Total Lower 48 Shale: 5,109 MMcf/d (33% increase over 2007 production) Source: Lippman Consulting, Inc.

  16. Domestic Shale Production • Shale fastest growing unconventional supply • Over 20 shale basins have been identified in the US • 6 shale basins currently producing • Unconventional production up 65% over the past decade – 1998: 5.4 tcf (14.8 bcf/d) or 28% of total NG production 2007: 8.9 tcf (24.4 bcf/d) or 46% of total NG production • Recent EIA shale production forecasts have significantly underestimated actual production

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