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Lecture 22: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Central Asia* *but were afraid to ask

Lecture 22: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Central Asia* *but were afraid to ask. February 27, 2009. Central Asia. Central Asia Fun Facts. Poorest part of USSR; GDP/capita: Kazakhstan $12,000 Kyrgyzstan $2,200 Tajikistan $1,800 Turkmenistan $5,800 Uzbekistan $2,700

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Lecture 22: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Central Asia* *but were afraid to ask

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  1. Lecture 22:Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Central Asia**but were afraid to ask February 27, 2009

  2. Central Asia

  3. Central Asia Fun Facts • Poorest part of USSR; GDP/capita: Kazakhstan $12,000 Kyrgyzstan $2,200 Tajikistan $1,800 Turkmenistan $5,800 Uzbekistan $2,700 (US $48,000) • Monocultures: cultivation of a single crop • Mostly Muslim: Kaz (47%)-Turkmen (89%) • Nations and borders artificial creations of 20th century • USSR provided homelands • Thrust into independence in 1991

  4. Democratize? • “Transition theory” of western governments and INGOs: autocracy ends, transition begins • Literacy ~99%, women’s rights • Resources: oil, cotton, gold, uranium • IMF, western economists advised

  5. No.

  6. Why Not Democracy? • Low income • Weak civil society • Resource curse • Bad neighbors • Decline in economic security, human development • USSR had generous welfare state • End of subsidies • Loss of investment and export markets unemployment • Corruption • Bad leaders

  7. Parade Magazine’s List of WorseDictators—2006 1) Omar al-Bashir, Sudan. Age 62. In power since 1989 2) Kim Jong-il, North Korea. Age 63. In power since 1994 3) Than Shwe, Burma (Myanmar). Age 72. In power since 1992. 4) Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe. Age 81. In power since 1980. 5) Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan. Age 67. In power since 1990. 6) Hu Jintao, China. Age 63. In power since 2002. 7) King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia. Age 82. In power since 1995. 8) Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan. Age 65. In power since 1990. 9) Seyed Ali Khameini, Iran. Age 66. In power since 1989. 10) Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea. Age 63. In power since 1979.

  8. Nation-building • No pre-Soviet national identity • Nationalism for presidential legitimacy • Rewrote history books • Adopted “national” symbols

  9. Nation-building

  10. Pipeline Politics in the Caspian Basin What they want: • US: diversify sources, help US companies, isolate Russia, Iran  use Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline • Russia: obligations to Europe, maintain “sphere of influence” • China: as much oil/gas as possible • Iran: not be isolated • Central Asia: not be dependent, $$$

  11. US Bases in Central Asia • Support Afghanistan operations, “lily pad” strategy, wean former Soviet states off Russia • Russia first accepted, then demurred • US alliance with Uzbek dictator Islam Karimov • Andijan massacre • Base closed • Now what…?

  12. What Can We Learn from Central Asia? • Transition paradigm wrong • The art of faking democracy • US foreign policy: interests vs. principle • Muslim world diverse • How we conceptualize regions matters

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