1 / 25

Mentat: A Data-Driven Agent-Based Simulation of Social Values Evolution

This paper discusses the Mentat ABM, which studies the evolution of Spanish society from 1980-2000 using AI techniques. It explores the methodological approach, architecture, social dynamics, and results of the simulation.

kesslert
Download Presentation

Mentat: A Data-Driven Agent-Based Simulation of Social Values Evolution

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Mentat: A Data-Driven Agent-Based Simulation of Social Values Evolution Samer Hassan Luis Antunes Juan Pavón Universidad Complutense de Madrid University of Surrey Universidade de Lisboa

  2. Objectives of the Mentat ABM • Case Study of Data-Driven ABM approach • Study the evolution of the Spanish society in the period 1980-2000 • Framework for the application of different AI techniques MABS 2009

  3. Contents • Methodological approach • The Sociological Problem • Mentat: Architecture • Mentat: Social Dynamics • Mentat: Results • Future work MABS 2009

  4. Heading towards Data-Driven ABM • Learning from Microsimulation: • Minimizing random initialisation • Feeding the simulation with representative survey samples • Explicit rules can be problematic • Empirical probability equations to determine changes in the micro behaviour • Injecting more data into ABM • From other sources (e.g. qualitative) • In other stages (e.g. design) MABS 2009

  5. Classical Logic of Simulation MABS 2009

  6. Proposal for Data-Driven ABM MABS 2009

  7. Methodological aspects for Data-driven ABM • Microsimulation concepts • Initialisation with survey data • Empirically grounded probability equations • Design fed with data • Qualitative info, equations • Life cycle, micro-processes • Validation with different empirical data • ‘Deepening KISS’ for exploring the model space MABS 2009

  8. Contents • Methodological approach • The Sociological Problem • Mentat: Architecture • Mentat: Social Dynamics • Mentat: Results • Future work MABS 2009

  9. The Problem • Aim: simulate the process of change in social values • in a period • in a society • Plenty of factors involved • To which extent the demographic dynamics can explain the mental change? • Inertia of generational change MABS 2009

  10. The Problem • Input Data loaded: EVS-1980 • Quantitative periodical info • Representative sample of Spain • Allows Empirical Validation • Intra-generational: • Agent characteristics remain constant • Macro aggregation evolves MABS 2009

  11. Contents • Methodological approach • The Sociological Problem • Mentat: Architecture • Mentat: Social Dynamics • Mentat: Results • Future work MABS 2009

  12. Mentat: architecture • Agent: • Mental State attributes • Life cycle patterns • Demographic micro-evolution: • Couples • Reproduction • Inheritance MABS 2009

  13. Mentat: architecture • World: • 3000 agents • Grid 100x100 • Demographic model • 8 indep. parameters • Social Network: • Communication with Moore Neighbourhood • Friends network • Family network MABS 2009

  14. Contents • Methodological approach • The Sociological Problem • Mentat: Architecture • Mentat: Social Dynamics • Mentat: Results • Future work MABS 2009

  15. Understanding Friendship Dynamics • “Meeting” & “Mating”: strangers => acquaintances => friends => partner • “Meeting”: depends on opportunities alone • space & time • “Mating”: depends on both opportunities & attraction • Proximity principle: ‘the more similar two individuals are, the stronger their chances of becoming friends’ • Features channel individual preferences • Homogeneous friendship choices MABS 2009

  16. Mentat: Social Dynamics • Meeting • Agents randomly distributed in space • Mating • Similarity operator => Friendship • Matchmaking • Couple chosen among “candidates” • Quantity? The more friends, the more couples • Quality? Couples should be similar MABS 2009

  17. Be Fuzzy, my Friend • Similar, Friend: fuzzy concepts • Fuzzification • Improves accuracy of similarity • Improves realism of friendship • Improves quality of couples • But friendship develops through time: Dynamic evolution! • Hypothesis: Logistic function MABS 2009

  18. Fuzzy Friendship Evolution MABS 2009

  19. Contents • Methodological approach • The Sociological Problem • Mentat: Architecture • Mentat: Social Dynamics • Mentat: Results • Future work MABS 2009

  20. Results MABS 2009

  21. Results • It may arise new sociological assumptions: In the prediction of social trends in Spain, Demographic Dynamics probably have, attending to the results, a key importance MABS 2009

  22. Contents • Methodological approach • The Sociological Problem • Mentat: Architecture • Mentat: Social Dynamics • Mentat: Results • Future work MABS 2009

  23. Future Work • Mentat as a stage-based modular framework • Enabling/Disabling modules for exploration • ceteris paribus • Explore the application of other AI techniques: • NLP: biography of a representative individual • Complementary output in natural language • Events tracing -> XML -> NL • DM: clustering over the input and output • Helpful in design and validation MABS 2009

  24. Thanks for your attention! Samer Hassan samer@fdi.ucm.es Universidad Complutense de Madrid University of Surrey Universidade de Lisboa MABS 2009

  25. Contents License • This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ • You are free to copy, modify and distribute it as long as the original work and author are cited MABS 2009

More Related