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Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles,

Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, ykagan@ucla.edu , http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/ykagan.html. Earthquake f orecast with CMT vs PDE catalogs CSEP Global Collaboration & Testing Meeting Monday, April 21, 2008.

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Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles,

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  1. Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, ykagan@ucla.edu, http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/ykagan.html Earthquakeforecast with CMT vs PDE catalogs CSEP Global Collaboration & Testing Meeting Monday, April 21, 2008 http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/CSEP21.ppt

  2. http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/wiki/index.php/Bird%27s_Zones

  3. CMT catalog: Shallow earthquakes, 1976-2005

  4. PARAMETER VALUES FOR VARIOUS SUBDIVISIONS OF CMT CATALOG, 1982--2007/03/31, Mw>=5.6 -------------------------------------------------------- All Subd. Orog. Inter. Fast Slow -------------------------------------------------------- 1. N 7720 5022 1004 279 584 831 2 Mmax 9.07 9.07 8.28 8.15 7.67 7.15 3. Inf/N 1.03 1.18 1.11 0.59 0.30 0.44 4. Ind/N 0.745 0.690 0.819 0.866 0.935 0.941 5. \mu 0.131 0.169 0.093 0.099 0.042 0.035 6. b 1.02 0.98 0.96 1.05 1.28 1.23 7. \delta 0.43 0.39 0.37 0.30 0.35 0.39 8. \theta 0.12 0.11 0.27 *0.1 0.27 *1.0 9. \sigma 0.30 0.29 0.15* 0.47 0.17 0.27 10. \eps_r 21.8 22.1 21.6 18.0 19.5 17.7 11. \eps_h 3.5 4.4 3.0* 5.1 3.0* 3.0* -------------------------------------------------------- \sigma – focal size for M4 EQ; \eps_r – horizontal error; \eps_h – vertical error http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/wiki/index.php/Bird%27s_Zones

  5. NW Pacific --Here we demonstrate forecast effectiveness: displayed earthquakes (108 events) occurred after smoothed seismicity forecast had been calculated.

  6. SW Pacific --Here we demonstrate forecast effectiveness: displayed earthquakes (170 events) occurred after smoothed seismicity forecast had been calculated.

  7. 1080 events (10 times the actual number of events in 2004-06) have been simulated, using the forecast density. Some points overlap; in low activity area we specified some low-level density to avoid surprises.

  8. World seismicity: 1990 – 2000 (PDE)

  9. PARAMETER VALUES FOR VARIOUS SUBDIVISIONS OF PDE CATALOG, 1968--2007/01/01, M>=5.0 -------------------------------------------------------- All Subd. Orog. Inter. Fast Slow -------------------------------------------------------- 1. N 45942 29980 7686 2191 3296 2789 2. Mmax 8.80 8.80 8.50 8.45 7.60 7.30 3. Inf/N 1.90 1.99 2.16 1.40 1.28 0.98 4. Ind/N 0.680 0.661 0.687 0.716 0.816 0.869 5. \mu 0.141 0.140 0.133 0.234 0.182 0.109 6. b 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.17 1.17 0.93 7. \delta 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.23 0.02 0.12 8. \theta 0.28 0.33 0.23 0.12 0.40 0.55 9. \sigma 0.38 0.37 0.31 0.24 0.15* 0.20 10. \eps_r 9.5 9.7 7.9 9.8 10.1 12.6 11. \eps_h 3.0* 4.5 4.3 3.0* 3.0* 3.0* -------------------------------------------------------- \sigma – focal size for M4 EQ; \eps_r – horizontal error; \eps_h – vertical error http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/wiki/index.php/Bird%27s_Zones

  10. PARAMETER VALUES FOR VARIOUS SUBDIVISIONS OF PDE CATALOG,1968--2007/01/01, M>=5.0;CLOSE AFTERSHOCKS REMOVED (6.5%) -------------------------------------------------------- All Subd. Orog. Inter. Fast Slow -------------------------------------------------------- 1. N 42925 27648 7205 2127 3217 2728 2. Mmax 8.80 8.80 8.50 8.45 7.60 7.30 3. Inf/N 1.25 1.24 1.50 1.17 1.04 0.76 4. Ind/N 0.695 0.674 0.709 0.736 0.831 0.881 5. \mu 0.171 0.177 0.146 0.241 0.185 0.121 6. b 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.17 1.17 0.93 7. \delta 0.38 0.37 0.41 0.18 0.0* 0.0* 8. \theta 0.11 0.13 0.10 0.1* 0.32 0.39 9. \sigma 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.15* 0.15* 0.15* 10. \eps_r 9.7 9.8 7.8 9.7 10.0 12.5 11. \eps_h 3.0* 4.8 4.7 3.0* 3.0* 3.0* -------------------------------------------------------- \sigma – focal size for M4 EQ; \eps_r – horizontal error; \eps_h – vertical error http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/wiki/index.php/Bird%27s_Zones

  11. NW Pacific --Here we demonstrate forecast effectiveness: displayed earthquakes M>=5.0 occurred after smoothed seismicity forecast had been calculated.

  12. Forecast with CMT vs PDE catalogs • The CMT catalog has moment-tensor solutions, hence focal mechanisms can be forecasted. • However, the present method can be extended only for subduction zones. • The PDE catalog has lower magnitude threshold (4.8 vs 5.8 for CMT). The present methodology can be used for global forecast. • A program can be easily designed to issue within a few minutes long- and short-term forecasts with the PDE catalog at the arbitrary spatial window.

  13. END Thank you

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