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CENRAP Modeling Workgroup

CENRAP Modeling Workgroup. Mational RPO Modeling Meeting May 25-26, Denver CO Calvin Ku Missouri DNR May 25, 2004. CENRAP Modeling Timeline. Control Strategy. Preliminary. Basecase. Jul-Dec 2003 Jan & Jul 02 (99) MM5 & SMOKE. Aug-Dec 2004 Annual MM5/SMOKE 2002 NEI v. 2 basecase

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CENRAP Modeling Workgroup

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  1. CENRAP Modeling Workgroup Mational RPO Modeling Meeting May 25-26, Denver CO Calvin Ku Missouri DNR May 25, 2004

  2. CENRAP Modeling Timeline Control Strategy Preliminary Basecase Jul-Dec 2003 Jan & Jul 02 (99) MM5 & SMOKE Aug-Dec 2004 Annual MM5/SMOKE 2002 NEI v. 2 basecase Emission Improvements Jun-Aug 2005 2018 Project. basecase Control Strategy Inv. Meteorology & Emissions Jan-Apr 2004 Model Evaluation/Select CMAQ & CAMx Jan-Aug 2005 Model Performance. Evaluation Jul-Sep 2005 2018 basevase & Emission Sensitivity Air Quality Modeling Apr-Sep 2004 MM5 (v.3.6.3)/basB Emissions Sensitivity Diagnostic Analysis July-Aug 2005 Emissions Sensitivity Diagnostic Analysis Oct-Dec 2005 Regional Control Strategy Runs Oct 2004 AQ Model selected & Dev. Model Protocol Jan-Jun 2006 Final Strategy & Recommendations

  3. Preliminary Modeling Goals • Evaluate the performance of PM models for the CENRAP region • CMAQ vs CAMx • Assess uncertainties, sensitivity simulations, and prioritize model improvement activities • Integrate AER evaluations with UCR analysis • Recommend a best model system for use in CENRAP’s Regional Haze plan

  4. Preliminary Modeling Domain • CMAQ and CAMx • Jan & July 2002 episodes • National RPO grid Lamber Conformal Conic @ center (-97, 40), Lat (33, 45) • MM5 165x129x34 • SMOKE 147x111x18 • CAMx 101x95x18 • CMAQ 101x95x16

  5. Configuration of Models • CMB-IV gas phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx • RADM aqueous phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx • Horizontal and vertical advection and diffusion • Convective transport treated in CMAQ • Dry deposition • Wet deposition of gases and particles • Particle size distribution • Aerosol thermodynamics • Aerosol dynamics

  6. Problems found in phase 1 • negative deposition velocity (mcip) @ 0 gmt due to VEGFRAC (mm5) • newly released (2/16/04) MM5 v3.6.3 (mcip patch provided by Donna did not work) • temp difference ranges -20 to +20 C • difference in biogenic & mobile emissions

  7. Ammonium Spatial DistributionMM5 v3.6.3 vs MM5 v3.5

  8. PM2.5 Sulfate Spatial DistributionMM5 v3.6.3 vs MM5 v3.5

  9. Performance Evaluation Data Available for PM Model Routine Monitors • IMPROVE: 24 hour PM2.5 and component data, one in three days • CASTNet: 7-day sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, SO2, and HNO3 (may be problematic) • AQS: hourly to daily PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5 speciation, O3, NO, NO2, NOy, VOC, SO2 Special Studies • PM Supersites • BRAVO

  10. Some Observations from Preliminary Modeling • Due to large geo, topo, and meterology variations in CENRAP region different approaches for improving model performance at different Class I areas may be required. • Emissions sensitivity improves performance but maybe the wrong reason. Also, it may improve the performance at one region but not the other region. • Zero BC for sulfate significantly improves the normalized bias by eliminating systematic overpredictions at low concentrations. • The “other” PM25 component is consistently overpredicted • basB applies fugitive dust transport factors and significantly reduce the “other” PM25 • Accurate predictions of sulfate and nitrate, and the associated ammonium is still key for CENRAP regional haze modeling • Sulfate: chemistry • Nitrate: chemistry, ammonia emissions, and thermodynamics

  11. Next Steps • Continue sensitivity runs for SOx, VOC (just finish NOx/NH3 sensitivities) and analyze CMAQ/CAMx results due to emissions reductions. • Start diagnostic analysis as per proposal. • Integrate UCR/Environ modeling analysis. • Model selection based on model runs & diagnostic. • Develop annual MM5 36km/12km for CENRAP • Incorporate emission improvements in 2002 NEI • Develop a RFP for basecase modeling

  12. 2002 Basecase DevelopmentDomain & Met Modeling • CMAQ or CAMx? • Domain 1 (36km) • - MM5 165x129x34 • - AQM 147x111x18? • Domain 2 (12km) • - MM5 180x240x34? • - AQM 162x222x18? • MM5 Configuration - Moisture - Reisner II - Cumulus - Kain-Fritsch II - PBL - Pleim-Xiu - Radiation - RRTM - Soil Temp - Pleim-Xiu LSM

  13. 2002 Basecase DevelopmentEmission Inventory • A RFP for Compiling Emission Modeling Inventory • 2002 NEI version 2 - mid July 04 • work products from STI inc. ammonia, fire, prescribed burning, nonroad, mobile, etc. • work products from other RPOs • 2002 CEM data SMOKE format • improved temporal, spatial, & speciation profiles. • additional QA & missing data • SMOKE (IDA) converter

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