Gloucestershire: Older People Ready ???

1. Gloucestershire:Older People Ready ??? Preparing to meet future housing and care needs CHELTENHAM FEBRUARY 27th 2014

2. Older People Ready??? • National Context • Gloucestershire: Current position • Data Analysis and market trends • What older people have told us • Social and economic trends • Barriers to Delivery • Innovative models

3. Some Good News Some Bad News

4. Just Bad News

7. Tenure Change 2011-2031

9. Drug taking in pensioners hits record levels as those who dabbled in substance abuse during the sixties reach their silver years 2,064 people aged over 60 sought treatment for substance abuse last year The number of drug-addicted pensioners has doubled in just five years Dramatic rise blamed on those who first experimented with drugs in 1960s

10. SHOP@

11. Project Terms of Reference To produce a national analysis tool that • predicts future housing and care needs of older people based on nationally accepted parameters and agreed data. • supports local scenario testing and prioritisation at county, unitary, district and borough level. • assists S106 applications and local development framework plans • develops Market Position Statements and Strategic Housing Market Assessments

12. National Tool –SHOP@ • Housing LIN Shop Resource Pack • EAC Capacity Data • POPPI Future Population Data • ‘More Choice, Greater Voice’ need projections • Option to take into account increased life expectancy

13. Gloucestershire Current Services

14. GloucestershireNational Benchmark

16. Tenure Options SHOP@ MARKET SPLIT 2030 OPTIONS - GREATER DEPRIVATION/AFFLUENCE SPLIT

17. SHOP@ Next Phase

18. NEXT PHASE • Community level analysis (MSOA level) • Service demand trends • Dementia and health profiles • MPS, SMHA, JSNA development • Planning Framework review • Asset Management Planning • Community Engagement

19. Cheltenham MSOA Review

20. Cheltenham MSOA Review

21. Planning for the Future • Values • What older people want • PEST Analysis • Barriers to Delivery • Innovations

22. What Values and Outcomes do Gloucestershire wish to achieve??

23. Gloucestershire H+W Values • Putting prevention and early intervention at the heart of our work • Empowering individuals, families and communities to take control of their own health and wellbeing • Protecting the most vulnerable people with complex needs, ensuring they can access joined-up services and that their voices and views are heard and taken into account

24. What do older people in Gloucs want

25. Gloucestershire Consultation • Best possible physical and mental health and wellbeing • Financial security • Being involved and included in the community • Feeling safe and secure • Dignity and choice

26. Rural Issues • Transport • Service Access • Fuel Poverty • Loneliness and Social Isolation AGE UK rural action report “Later Life in Rural England”

27. Home Care Older people defined ‘quality’ in terms of key attributes: • Provision of help to keep your home clean and with small tasks like changing light bulbs. • Regular carers, so that trust can be built up and time saved. • Notification of what tasks older people can expect carers to undertake. • Notification of any changes in carers or carers’ activities, so that olderpeople are not opening their doors to a stranger. • Flexible services which can reflect older people’s current needs. • Carers trained in the tasks they have to do and trained to listen to clients. • Aids and adaptations to promote independence. • Services to enable older people to get out of their homes • JRFManchester survey

28. CQC Expectations • Are they safe? • Are they effective? • Are they caring? • Are they responsive? • Are they well-led?

29. Downsizing • Demos • Wanless 1/3 older people willing to downsize • Suffolk Age UK Support to move highest priority for older people

30. PEST ANALYSIS • POLITICAL • ECONOMIC • SOCIAL • TECHNICAL

31. PEST ANALYSIS Political • High Profile • Too complicated • Too many pressure groups Economic

32. Something Must Be Done!!!!!

33. Something Must Be Done Quickly!!!!!

34. Something Must Be Done Quickly!!!!! But What????????

36. PEST ANALYSIS Political • High Profile • Too complicated • Too many pressure groups Economic • Numbers of Old People • Capital Funding Squeeze • Public Sector cuts • Care Bill Cap • Infrastructure • Downsizing/Tenure change

37. PEST ANALYSIS Social • Age Profile • Long term conditions • Life Expectancy • Voluntary Sector • Community Development • Quality Expectations Technical

38. PEST ANALYSIS Social • Age Profile • Long term conditions • Life Expectancy • Voluntary Sector • Community Development • Quality Expectations Technical • Transactional service • Limited Innovation • Low expectations

39. Barriers to Delivery • Funding • Strategic Planning • Data Availability • Competition for Resources • Financial Risk • Revenue Costs • Suitable site availability • Timely Advice and Guidance • Health understanding • Crisis Management • Unloved moderates

40. New Housing Model

45. Housing Options

46. Housing Options • Retirement Villages • 60 unit plus apartments • Traditional Sheltered • Alms Houses • Co-Housing • +++++ ??????

47. Extra Care Limiting Factors • Size of development now minimum 60 units • Requires population of 30,000 based on More Choice Greater Voice • Moderate assessment no longer funded by most councils • More people able to stay in own home

48. Future Extra Developments • Public Sector: to reduce residential care admissions • Private Sector Lifestyle choice • PAL- Partnership- Assessment- Location

49. First Steps • Lifetime Homes • Lifetime Neighbourhoods • Standard room conversion specifications • Careline systems • Assistive technology

50. Integrated Housing • Within Mainstream development • Specialist flats • Assistive technology • Careline • Ground floor or pepperpot • Allocated care provider • Catalyst for Community leadership (ABCD, LAC)