Policy Effectiveness and Transformative Policies

1. Policy Effectiveness and transformative Policies By: Peter King, Diana Mangalagiu, Klaus Jacob Findings of the sixth Global Environment Outlook

2. Thanks to funders and partners • Not possible to conduct a project of this size without significant contributions from funders and partners • We had contributions of expertise and time from many authors. • Their institutions also allowed them time away from their main activities to assist us.

3. How we got here Main report • 146 authors, 78 members of advisory bodies • 41 review editors • From more than 70 countries • 301 UN reviewers • More thank 1,000 technical reviewers • 364 Intergovernmental reviewers • 5 review periods, 2 of which were intergovernmental reviews Summary for Policymakers • Negotiated in January,2019 • 95 countries, 250 participants, 4 days • 37 page summary plus ‘Key Messages’

4. Contents • Methods for evaluating effectiveness: Theory-based evaluation combining top down and bottom up approaches • Findings • Across the themes (with highlights, e.g. on combining social and environmental issues) • General findings across the themes (policy design, evidence-based policy making, policy integration, diffusion/multilevel governance etc.) • Approaches to transformation: Environmental policies to facilitate socio-economic transformation • Transformative policies as a complement to strategic policies • Conclusions  

5. Methods for Policy Effectiveness Analysis • Gold Standard for Evaluation: Comparing with groups not exposed to a policy (experimental, comparative, counter-factual scenario), but most often not feasible (limitations of comparability, complexity, cost, equity etc.) • Evaluation of policy effectiveness often comes down to expert judgement • Alternative: Theory-based approach: 1) Findings from literature (e.g. on policy design, evidence-based policy making, participation, policy integration, multi-level governance etc.) on factors that determine effectiveness => 13 criteria 2) Causal chains on output => outcome => impact => indicator-based analysis • Application on: • Policy approaches • Case studies for these policy approaches

6. Adopted Method for Policy Effectiveness Analysis

7. Policy Effectiveness Criteria

8. Policy Effectiveness Criteria (cont.)

9. Findings across the 20+ case studies – examples Fiji – Locally managed marine areas: • In Fiji, locally managed marine areas have promoted sustainable management of existing traditional rights to access marine resources in inshore areas, covering up to 79% of Fiji's inshore fishing area. • A similar low-cost policy approach has spilled over into other Pacific Island countries, but it is not always supported with adequate government resources. • The continuous debate over local autonomy versus central control applies in nearly all countries.

10. Findings across the themes – examples (cont.) South Africa – Free Basic Water Policy • South Africa launched the Free Basic Water Policy in 2001 to address a lack of access to safe water and sanitation and to provide subsidized water services to the poorest people in urban areas. • By 2007, 75% of the population was provided with free basic water (6,000 litres per household per month) and 69% of those was poor households, although some rural areas were still not well serviced. • Prior to implementation of the policy there was no right to water.

11. Findings: Indicator-based approach: Land useTerrestrial protected areas as a percentage of total land area Source: World Bank (2018)

12. Findings: indicator-based approach: AirPopulation-weighted annual country-wide mean concentration of PM2.5 in 2016 Source: Adapted from Health Effects Institute (2017) and Shaddick et al. (2018).

13. Findings across themes • Implementation gap

14. Findings – There is an implementation gap • A surprising number of case studies were viewed as having insufficiently considered institutional capacity for implementation. At least half of the cases had some difficulty in being technically feasible in the specific institutional context. • In a significant number of cases, external factors have impeded the policy goals, suggesting that policy makers may need to examine possible worse case outcomes and/or provide for contingencies if the policy is adversely affected by external factors.

15. Findings across themes • Implementation gap • Policy design matters – not only choice of instruments

16. Findings – Stakeholder involvement is essential • Of the 22 policy cases examined, we found that a majority of cases had not sufficiently involved stakeholders in the policy design or even in implementation. • As public-private participation is a key ingredient of policy effectiveness, policy makers should re-examine their approach to stakeholder involvement. • The private sector has much at stake in the environmental policy domain so it should be involved in all stages of the policy cycle. There is too much to lose by excluding even the most vocal opponents, as they may hold the key to bridging the implementation gap. • Involving alliances, clubs and non-State actors in policy design may provide opportunities for peer pressure to overcome institutional reluctance.

17. Importance of good policy design Common elements of good policy design: • Setting a long-term vision and avoiding crisis-mode policy decisions, through inclusive, participatory design processes • Establishing a baseline, as well as quantified targets and milestones • Conducting ex ante and ex post cost–benefit or cost effectiveness analysis to ensure that public funds are being used most efficiently and effectively • Assessing the institutional capacity and implementing agencies roles • Examining interactions with other policies to ensure coherence and synergy • Building in policy monitoring regimes during implementation, preferably involving affected stakeholders • Conducting post-intervention evaluation of the policy outcomes and impacts, to close the loop for future policy design improvements

18. Findings across themes • Implementation gap • Policy design matters – not only choice of instruments • Policy innovation and diffusion exist also in the Global South • Lack of policy integration: little greening of economic policy domains • Context matters: without administrative and institutional capacities, in situations of power imbalance and corruption, policies inevitably fail • Steering in the fog: too little use of ex ante and ex post assessments • Policy diffusion – supported by multilevel governance (although with shortcomings) • Increasing level of ambition and strictness, but incrementalism prevails • The critical agenda of environmental policies that will effectively guide socio-economic activities is far from completed

19. Environmental policies to facilitate transformation • Despite considerable potential, incremental improvements of efficiency will not be sufficient, given the urgency of change. Transformative policies are needed. • Systemic and transformative policies, technologies and social practices, if used together and holistically, have the potential for achieving the SDGs and other MEAs • Transformative pathways to sustainable development require: • Visions to guide systemic innovation towards sustainability • Social and policy innovation • Phasing out unsustainable practices • Policy experimentation • Engaging and enabling actors and stakeholders

20. Transformative Policies • Address socio-technical systems in all sectors: energy, housing, nutrition, mobility, etc. • Enable disruptive social, technological and institutional innovation from the bottom up • May have high risks but equally higher rewards (e.g. for new forms of employment) • Provide an experimental mode allowing space for tailoring and innovating policies and accommodating failure • Stem from a vision for alternative system configurations and scenarios • Encompass not only innovation but also exnovation (phasing out non-sustainable structures)

21. Complementarity between strategic (BAU, integrated) and transformative policies is essential

22. Conclusions • The agenda of environmental policies that will effectively guide socio-economic transformation is far from completed • Economic and social co-benefits from implementing environmental policies outweigh their costs • Policy design matters – not only choice of instruments, but also coherence and synergies • Inclusive approaches to environmental policy formulation and implementation are essential • Incremental improvements of efficiency will not be sufficient, given the urgency for far-reaching action • Transformative policies are needed to complement strategic policies

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