A brief history of decision science

1. Public Administration and Policy A brief history of decision science Thomas R. Stewart, Ph.D. Center for Policy Research Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany State University of New York T.STEWART@ALBANY.EDU

2. Historical periods • Pre WWII ( - 1939) • WWII (1940-1980) • Baby boomers (1970-2010) • Children of baby boomers (2000-2040) • Grandchildren of baby boomers

3. Pre WWII • Germination of ideas, concepts, and theories • Many of the ideas that form the basis for decision science existed before WWII.

4. Pre WWII Descartes, René (1596-1650) I thought the following four [rules] would be enough, provided that I made a firm and constant resolution not to fail even once in the observance of them. The first was never to accept anything as true if I had not evident knowledge of its being so; that is, carefully to avoid precipitancy and prejudice, and to embrace in my judgment only what presented itself to my mind so clearly and distinctly that I had no occasion to doubt it. The second, to divide each problem I examined into as many parts as was feasible, and as was requisite for its better solution. The third, to direct my thoughts in an orderly way; beginning with the simplest objects, those most apt to be known, and ascending little by little, in steps as it were, to the knowledge of the most complex; and establishing an order in thought even when the objects had no natural priority one to another. And the last, to make throughout such complete enumerations and such general surveys that I might be sure of leaving nothing out. Discours de la Méthode, 1637.

5. Pre WWII Pascal, Blaise (1623-1662) There are two types of mind ... the mathematical, and what might be called the intuitive. The former arrives at its views slowly, but they are firm and rigid; the latter is endowed with greater flexibility and applies itself simultaneously to the diverse lovable parts of that which it loves. Discours sur les passions de l'amour, 1653.

6. Pre WWII Franklin, Benjamin (1706-1790) I cannot, for want of sufficient premises, advise you what to determine, but if you please I will tell you how…. My way is to divide half a sheet of paper by a line into two columns; writing over the one Pro, and over the other Con. Then, doing three or four days’ consideration, I put down under the different heads short hints of the different motives, that at different time occur to me for or against the measure. When I have thus got them all together in one view, I endeavor to estimate the respective weights … [to] find at length where the balance lies … And, though the weight of reasons cannot be taken with the precision of algebraic quantities, yet, when each is thus considered, separately and comparatively, and the whole matter lies before me, I think I can judge better, and am less liable to make a rash step; and in fact I have found great advantage for this kind of caution, in what may be called moral or prudential algebra. Letter to Joseph Priestly, September 19, 1772.

7. Pre WWII Poincaré, Jules Henri (1854-1912) ...by natural selection our mind has adapted itself to the conditions of the external world. It has adopted the geometry most advantageous to the species or, in other words, the most convenient. Geometry is not true, it is advantageous. Science and Method.

8. WWII WWII generation invented the theories and methods and the tools needed to implement them. Examples: Computers Game theory Decision theory Social judgment theory System dynamics Operations research Signal detection theory

9. Baby boomers A tiny fraction of baby boomers learned the techniques in graduate school and began developing and refining primitive tools and gaining experience in their implementation. Examples: MAUT Policy PC Stella, etc. Mexico City Airport (successful application of decision theory) Denver Handgun Ammunition (successful application of social judgment theory) CAWCS (successful application of MAUT)

10. Children of baby boomers A larger fraction of children of baby boomers learn about the techniques in high school and college and have ready access to primitive tools. They will refine the tools and gain more experience in implementation.

11. Grandchildren of baby boomers An even larger fraction of the grandchildren of baby boomers will be exposed to the techniques in grade school and will learn about them in high school and college. This generation will distribute the techniques and train their students to use them.

12. Theory and method Tools Decision science exposure and education Application Foundation laid for theory Math, logic, pencil and paper None Very rare and informal Pre WWII “Enlightenment”

13. Theory and method Tools Decision science exposure and education Application Mature theory and rudiments of method developed Limited, user-unfriendly computer programs No education available. (This generation invented the methods.) Limited. Mostly military and business. Mostly easier problems. WWII “Invention”

14. Refinement of theory and advances in method (e.g., influence diagrams) Theory and method Powerful, but primitive software Little known about implementation Tools Tiny fraction exposed. Learning took place only in grad school. Decision science exposure and education Widening. Many difficult problems tackled, some successfully. Still, only a small fraction of decisions ever addressed by analysis. Application Baby boomers “Optimism”

15. Refinement of method Theory and method Powerful, sophisticated software coupled with implementation procedures based on extensive experience Tools Larger fraction exposed. Learning takes place in high school and college. Decision science exposure and education Widening. Applications better focused on appropriate problems. Higher success rate. More sustained effort and increasing number of routine applications. Application Children of baby boomers “Realism”

16. Integration and consolidation of method Theory and method More powerful, more sophisticated, more experience Tools Majority exposed. Learning takes place in grade school and high school. Decision science exposure and education Routine acceptance where appropriate. Default method is to apply decision science rather than older methods. Application Grandchildren of baby boomers “Maturity”

17. Optimism or pessimism? Realism?