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Cotton Economic Update

Cotton Economic Update. National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009. Has the Economy Bottomed?. Fed Chairman Bernanke thinks so

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Cotton Economic Update

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  1. Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009

  2. Has the Economy Bottomed? • Fed Chairman Bernanke thinks so • “After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, … ,and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good.” • “the economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first...”

  3. % Change in Real GDP 3rdQ?

  4. Cotton & Textile Demand

  5. Textile Trade Declined thru May(Totals as reported by Global Trade Atlas)

  6. US Cotton Domestic Consumption

  7. More Modest Drop in US Spendingfor Clothing & Shoes

  8. US Cotton Mill Use

  9. International Markets

  10. Update on Key Countries • W Africa – Lower production & exports • Brazil – Some quality concerns with current harvest; expected shift to soybeans • Central Asia – Smaller crops due to reduced area • Pakistan – No widespread concerns on production; new support to textile industry & some improvements in spinning margins

  11. China Cotton Supply & Use

  12. China Cotton Price vs. A Index

  13. India’s Min Support Price

  14. India Cotton Supply & Use

  15. Cotton Exports

  16. US Production

  17. ‘09 Cotton Acres @ 9.05 Million

  18. US Acres & Relative Prices

  19. US Cotton Production

  20. Cotton Crop Conditions

  21. US Supply & Demand

  22. Cotton Prices

  23. Summary

  24. Recovery in Mill Use?

  25. Drawdown in World Stocks?

  26. Have US Acres Bottomed? ’10 ratios based on current Dec & Nov ’10 futures contracts

  27. Producers Cooperatives Ginners Cottonseed Merchants Warehouses Manufacturers

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