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The Lessons from the Housing Market Crisis

The Lessons from the Housing Market Crisis. Professor Elias Karakitsos eliask@guildhall.gg. Causes of Credit Crisis. US housing market: symptom not cause Too much liquidity Internet, Housing, Commodities, Shipping, Private Equity and US Treasuries Liquidity created by:

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The Lessons from the Housing Market Crisis

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  1. The Lessons from the Housing Market Crisis Professor Elias Karakitsos eliask@guildhall.gg

  2. Causes of Credit Crisis • US housing market: symptom not cause • Too much liquidity • Internet, Housing, Commodities, Shipping, Private Equity and US Treasuries • Liquidity created by: • “Bad” Financial Engineering (shadow banking) • Mistakes in monetary policy

  3. Consequences • Falling house prices and an inverted yield curve turned hefty profits in shadow banking into huge losses, spilling over to mother banks • Widening credit spreads • Higher cost of borrowing • Lower credit availability • Tightening of lending standards

  4. Consequences and Risks • K-model predictions: • House prices: stabilise in spring 2010 at 40% lower than peak in mid-2006 • Debt:> +50% (61% to 101%) in the upswing, 98-07 • 81% by 2010 (irreversibility) • Gross wealth: Return to pre-bubble level • < +50% (144% to 230%), 98-05 • Net wealth: 82% to 134% in the upswing • 58% by 2010

  5. Figure 17: The Housing Market Loop Income or Interest rate Shock House prices Real Residential Investment Net Real Estate Gross Real Estate

  6. Risks to Recovery • US government and Fed spending, lending & guaranteeing • Commitment: $12.8 trillion (GDP $14.2) • Current allocation: $4.2 trillion • Fed balance sheet expansion: • $1.4 trillion to $2.2 or from 6% to 16% of GDP • Monetary base to more than 100%

  7. Risks to Recovery • Risks to sustainability of recovery • Rising default risk premiums, inflation risk premiums & exchange rate risk premiums • Issuance of US Treasuries: $2.5 trillion in 2009 • Rising long term interest rates • Printing of money: Inflation when economy recovers. Dollar depreciation.

  8. Policy Challenges & Inconsistencies • Inflation or Deflation • Drain of liquidity (deleverage) • Acceptance of lower equilibrium asset prices • Or • Flood the system with liquidity to restore previous levels of asset prices • But risk creating new bubbles (US Treasuries) • Break vicious-cycle: bank losses-house prices • $1.3 trillion rising to $3 trillion on 40% fall of houses • Demand for credit as well as supply

  9. Policies to Avoid Future Crises • Mild, but not excessive wealth targeting in addition to inflation and output gap • Wealth target: corridor around 5-times disposable income • Hike rates when wealth exceeds upper limit and lower rates when wealth falls below low limit.

  10. Advantages of Wealth Targeting • Avoid moral hazard • Avoid over-regulation • Enable ‘good’ financial engineering • Deal with the consequences of financial engineering • Avoid policies that appear successful, yet sow the seeds for future bubbles (low volatility of inflation and large volatility of output)

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