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Presentation Overview

Presentation Overview. Objective and general approach Models, model inputs, and activity data used On-Road emissions, base and future years Non-Road emissions, base and future years Road dust emissions California emissions data updates Remaining work.

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Presentation Overview

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  1. Presentation Overview • Objective and general approach • Models, model inputs, and activity data used • On-Road emissions, base and future years • Non-Road emissions, base and future years • Road dust emissions • California emissions data updates • Remaining work

  2. Overall Objectives for Developing Mobile Source Emissions • To develop up-to date and accurate mobile source emission inventories for WRAP states • To use consistent emissions estimation methods among states • To get up-to-date modeling and activity inputs from state and local agencies

  3. On-Road Vehicle Categories • Light-duty gasoline vehicles • cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles • Heavy-duty gasoline trucks • Light-duty diesel vehicles • cars, light-duty trucks • Heavy-duty diesel trucks

  4. On-Road Mobile SourcesGeneral Approach Local Parameters Temperature Fuel Specifications Control Programs Vehicle Registration MOBILE6.2 Generates g/mi Emission Factors Local Travel Data Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and Speed by Roadway Type VMT Growth Rates = X Emissions

  5. EPA MOBILE6 On-Road Emission Factor Model • Estimates g/mile emission factors for • Exhaust VOC, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, SO2 • Evaporative VOC • Incorporates Federal motor vehicle control programs • Tier 1 light-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 1996) • National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) standards (begins MY 2001) • Tier 2 light-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2005), with low sulfur gasoline beginning summer 2004 • Heavy-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2004) • Heavy-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2007), with low sulfur diesel beginning with summer 2006 • Models state/local control programs • Fuels regulations • Inspection and Maintenance programs

  6. Surveys of State/Local Agenciesfor Modeling Inputs and VMT Data • Survey for 2002 base year inputs and VMT • Default model inputs and VMT from EPA NMIM used for NEI2002, CERR submittals to EPA, Sierra Research analysis of fuel survey data • Detailed spreadsheets were posted to web • Responses were received from all state agencies and key local agencies • Survey for future year inputs, VMT growth, and unpaved road VMT • Default model inputs were 2002 inputs(except fuel S); default VMT growth developed from previous MSEI growth factors; • Detailed spreadsheets were posted to web • Responses were received from all state agencies and key local agencies

  7. California On-Road Emissions • California has developed CA-specific EMFAC model • We used latest public version - EMFAC2002 (v2.2, April 2003) to estimate 2002 emissions • EMFAC includes CA VMT by county to estimate g/mile emission factors as well as emissions • Significant EMFAC revision is in progress • ARB has just provided updated emissions from internal working version of EMFAC

  8. 2002 WRAP States Average Annual On-Road NOx Emissions

  9. 2002 WRAP States Average Annual On-Road VOC Emissions

  10. New On-Road Mobile Temporal Profiles

  11. Spatial Distribution of All RPO On-Road NO Emissions (July Weekday)

  12. Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Relative to 2002

  13. WRAP States Average Annual On-Road VOC and NOx Emissions by State (excludes CA) VOC NOx

  14. WRAP States Average Annual On-Road VOC and NOx Emissions by Class(excludes CA) VOC NOx

  15. WRAP States Average Annual On-Road SO2 Emissions by Class (excludes CA)

  16. Agricultural Equipment Aircraft Airport Ground Support Equipment Commercial Equipment Commercial Marine Construction and Mining Equipment Industrial Equipment Lawn and Garden Equipment Locomotives Logging Equipment Oil Field Equipment Pleasure Craft Railroad Equipment Recreational Equipment Non-Road Equipment Categories

  17. Modeling Traditional Non-Road Sources Local Parameters Temperature Fuel Specifications Equipment Population Data NONROAD2004 Does not include California; California has internal OFFROAD model.

  18. EPA NONROAD Emissions Model • Estimates total emissions — includes both emission factors and activity data • Emissions from traditional nonroad sources • 2-stroke gasoline • 4-stroke gasoline • diesel • Latest posted draft model used (NONROAD2004) • Includes all promulgated Federal control programs • Tier 1 through Tier 4 CI engines >50 hp • Tier 1 and Tier 2 CI engines <50 hp • Phase 1 and 2 SI engines <25 hp • Tier 1 and Tier 2 large SI engines >25 hp • Recreational vehicles • Recreational marine SI • Recreational marine CI >50 hp

  19. NONROAD Model Emissions Estimates For each type of equipment Emissions = Equipment population x Average load factor x Activity (hours of use per year) x Emission factor by age, horsepower, fuel type, and application NONROAD has assumptions and default values for all calculation inputs

  20. 2002 Aircraft Emissions Estimates • Based on NEI2002 aircraft emissions estimates; 1285 airports total • Aircraft Categories: air carriers (AC), air taxis (AC), general aviation, military aircraft • Emissions for 549 towered airports: • FAA Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS), using detailed activity data by airframe for AC and AT • Fleet average emission factors for air taxis and general aviation, multiplied by total LTOs • Smaller airports: fleet average emission factors • Inserted improved aircraft emissions estimates available from other studies: Alaska (WRAP project), Wyoming, Arizona, Idaho, Clark County

  21. 2002 Locomotive Emissions Estimates • 2002 national fuel consumption obtained • Fuel consumption allocated to counties using historical freight data • County-level emissions estimated as: • County emissions = (county fuel consumption) x (emission factor)

  22. Locomotive Emissions Data Sources

  23. County Allocation of Locomotive Activity

  24. 2002 Commercial Marine Emissions • Ocean going vessel (OGV) types: • Tugs • Ferries • Support, excursion, and dredges • Commercial fishing • Military • EPA emission factors for three size categories of commercial marine engines • OGV near port and within shore — Washington and Oregon • Ship calls and vessel power • Activity per call • OGV Offshore (Corbett, Univ. of Delaware) • Ship positioning data, subset of all vessels • Scaled to all vessels • Biased low near shore (near port grid cells replaced with near port emissions estimates)

  25. 2002 OGV Emissions Estimates Note: California ‘near port’ and ‘transit near port’ are dated; ARB said they will provide their latest estimates.

  26. 2002 WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road VOC Emissions (excludes CA)

  27. 2002 WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road NOx Emissions (excludes CA)

  28. 2002 WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road SO2 Emissions (excludes CA)

  29. Spatial Distribution of All RPO Non-Road NO Emissions(July Weekday)

  30. Spatial Distribution of All RPO Non-Road SO2 Emissions(July Weekday)

  31. Nonroad Sources – Emissions Projections • Traditional nonroad sources • NONROAD model projections • Equipment population growth factors based on historical equipment sales data • Aircraft • FAA LTO projections by airport and aircraft category • Locomotive • Project fuel consumption from historical trends in national freight ton-miles/year and freight company efficiency • Reduce emission factors to adjust for fleet turnover using EPA analysis • Commercial marine • In progress

  32. WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road NOx and SO2 Emissions by State (excludes CA) SO2 NOx Note: Does not include ocean going vessels; projections not yet available

  33. WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road NOx and SO2 Emissions by Category(excludes CA) SO2 NOx Note: Does not include ocean going vessels; projections not yet available

  34. California Mobile Source Data Issues • CARB has its own mobile source models • EMFAC for on-road – current is EMFAC2002; EMFAC2005 expected “soon” • OFFROAD for traditional nonroad sources – has not yet been publicly released; only ARB can run and provide emissions estimates • CA data in current 2002 base case modeling • On-road using EMFAC2002 run by ENVIRON • Traditional off-road sources using ARB estimates for CY2003 used in previous §309 modeling • Locomotive and aircraft using ENVIRON WRAP-wide methods • Commercial marine • Includes CA in current offshore work • CA near port emissions are not included

  35. California Mobile Source Data Issues • CARB has just agreed (meeting one week ago) to provide all mobile source emissions for base and future years • Importance of CARB data • Significant emissions in all source categories • Can provide missing OGV in/near port emissions • Have provided EMFAC and OFFROAD data so far • Much work to be done with CARB data • Data files are in unwieldy format • O&G emissions are in multiple files and formats • Projection years need to be interpolated • Pollutants to be added • SMOKE and NIF files to be generated • All summary spreadsheets, tables, graphs to be revised • Add to documentation • Will need to work with CARB to create modeling files for 2018 control strategy runs in ~6 months

  36. Road Dust Emissions – Previous Work • Revisions were made to unpaved road dust emissions estimates in previous §309 modeling work • Purposes • To develop a better estimate than EPA’s divide by 4 • To resolve large differences in adjacent counties • To use consistent methodology across states • Revisions made • Revised average daily traffic volume (ADTV), key parameter in emissions estimate • Revised silt loadings • Applied transport fractions • In §309 modeling, removing all road dust had essentially no effect on visibility in Class I areas

  37. Road Dust Emissions – Current Work • Minimal resources allocated to update VMT estimates for paved and unpaved roads • Unpaved road VMT estimates were requested in future year survey • Inconsistency in State responses • Most States were not able to provide information on unpaved road VMT, or guessed a fraction of paved VMT by county and roadway type • Montana used ADTV estimates for unpaved roads, including “off system” roads, to revise unpaved road VMT • Updated transport fractions will be applied in SMOKE to all fugitive dust sources, and are not included in ENVIRON emissions estimates

  38. Comparison of Previous and Current Road Dust PMC Emissions Note – data not available yet for CA revision

  39. Spatial Distribution of All RPO Road Dust PMC Emissions(July Weekday)

  40. Mobile Source Emission Inventory– Remaining Work • Obtain and process all CA data • Commercial marine projections • Documentation – detailed report including: • All assumptions and data used • Emissions estimation models and methods • Projection methods • Results in summary tables and graphs • Future years data summaries to be posted to the project web page http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ef/UMSI/index.html • Detailed emission inventory results • Summary spreadsheets and maps

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