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Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton)

Where has all the Carbon Gone? Atmospheric oxygen, carbon fluxes and the implications for climate change. Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter Tans (NOAA/CMDL)

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Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton)

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  1. Where has all the Carbon Gone?Atmospheric oxygen, carbon fluxes and the implications for climate change. Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter Tans (NOAA/CMDL) Jesse Bastide, Carrie Simonds, Blake Sturtevant, Becca Perry Bates College, 12/3/2004 Funding from: NSF, EPA, NOAA GCRP, BP-Amoco, Bowdoin College

  2. Organizing Principle: 1 topic superficially

  3. Organizing Principle: 1 topic superficially Several topics with vanishing content

  4. Outline: • Context: • Climate Change • CO2 as an agent of change • Where does the CO2 go? • How does O2 tell us this? • The basic answer • A more refined answer • Related work in progress

  5. Why should we care about climate change? “An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world…” “…most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” “ Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries.” “Emissions of greenhouse gases… continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate.” IPCC, 2001

  6. Why CO2? IPCC, 2001

  7. Why CO2? “ The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased by 31% since 1750. The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. The current rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years.” IPCC, 2001

  8. Where does anthropogenic CO2 end up?

  9. Recap: • The planet is warming • Human activities are to blame • CO2 is the primary culprit • Future buildup depends on Atm vs. Land vs. Ocean • Land/Ocean partition is tough to measure

  10. The link between O2 and CO2 CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean DO2 = Land biota + Industry

  11. O2/N2 changes are small O2/N2 per meg  (O2/N2sa – O2/N2st)/(O2/N2st) x106 1 per meg = 0.0001% 1 GtC = 109 metric tons C = 1015 g C 1 GtC from FF  3.2 per meg O2/N2

  12. Graphically…

  13. Graphically…

  14. Graphically…

  15. Graphically…

  16. Graphically…

  17. The Princeton cooperative flask sampling network

  18. Ships of opportunity

  19. Research Vessels

  20. Automatic Air Recovery Device Version ARK-5 In use at: Cape Grim Ka’imimoana Samoa Barrow Sable Macquarie Princeton

  21. Our measurement technique: • IRMS (Finnigan Delta+XL) 32/28 and 40/28 (as well as 44/28 and 29/28) • Custom dual-inlet system • Indirect comparison with standards For more details: Bender et al., In review

  22. Battle et al., Science 2000

  23. 1991 – 1997 Land sink = 1.4 ± 0.8 GtC/yr Ocean sink = 2.0 ± 0.6 GtC/yr Battle et al.Science 2000 (2467-2470)

  24. Is it really that simple? Heat Biology DO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean DCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

  25. Longer records from more sites…

  26. Longer records from more sites+Solubility correction+Stratification correctionOcean uptake = 1.7 ± 0.5Net Land uptake = 1.0 ± 0.6(1994 – 2002)Bender et al. In review

  27. Summary • The climate is changing • Anthropogenic CO2 is to blame • O2 can tell us about the fate of CO2 • The O2-CO2 linkage isn’t trivial • We find a substantial terrestrial sink (volatile?) But the story doesn’t end here…

  28. Measurements of O2 and CO2 DO2 = Land biota + Industry DCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean fland & focean > 0 for carbon storage by land and ocean

  29. Measurements of O2 and CO2 DO2 = Land biota + Industry DCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean fland & focean > 0 for carbon storage by land and ocean

  30. Determining the O2:CO2 stoichiometry for theland biota

  31. What else might we learn? DO2 = Land biota + Industry DCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean fland & focean > 0 for carbon storage by land and ocean

  32. APO: an ocean-only “tracer” APO  O2observed + 1.1 CO2observed (I have ignored units)

  33. APO: an ocean-only “tracer” APO  O2observed + 1.1 CO2observed (I have ignored units) So what?

  34. Ocean biology and circulation

  35. Ocean biology and circulation fluxes of CO2 and O2

  36. Ocean biology and circulation fluxes of CO2 and O2 atmospheric transport

  37. Ocean biology and circulation fluxes of CO2 and O2 atmospheric transport atmospheric composition at observing stations

  38. fluxes of CO2 and O2 atmospheric transport atmospheric composition at observing stations

  39. APO measurements + good flux estimates  rigorous test of atmospheric transport

  40. Is this different from other models?

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