Adaptation to Impacts of Climate Change An Overview

1. Adaptation to Impacts of Climate Change An Overview James L. Buizer Science Policy Advisor to the President Arizona State University May 19, 2011

2. Key Findings 1.Global Warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced • Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. • This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.

3. Key Findings 2. Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow These include: • Increases in heavy downpours • Rising temperature • Rising sea level • Rapidly retreating glaciers • Thawing permafrost • Lengthening growing seasons • Lengthening ice-free seasons etc

4. Carbon Dioxide levels are higher than in 800,000 years; global average temperatures have been rising in tandem with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases

5. Key Findings 3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase • Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. 4. Climate Change will stress water resources • Drought is important in many regions, especially in the West. • Floods and water quality problems - likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions. • Declines in mountain snowpack in the West and Alaska - provides vital natural water storage.

6. Key Findings 5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged • Many crops show positive responses to elevated carbon dioxide and low levels of warming. But higher levels of warming often negatively affect growth and yields. - Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. 6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise and storm surge • Increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. • Energy and transportation infrastructure - very likely to be adversely affected.

7. Key Findings Number of Days Over 100ºF 7. Risks to human health will increase • Related to increasing heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. • Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. 8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses • Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

8. Key Findings 9. Thresholds will be crossed leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems These thresholds determine, for example: - the presence of sea ice and permafrost, - the survival of species, from fish to insect pests

9. Key Findings 10. Future climate and its impacts depends on choices made today • The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions • Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable.

10. Key Finding: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase Sea Ice and Permafrost Risks and costs in Alaska increase as thawing of permafrost damages roads, buildings, and forests, and declining sea ice increases coastal erosion and threatens the existence of some communities. Forests Forest growth is generally projected to increase in much of the East, but decrease in much of the West as water becomes even scarcer. Major shifts in species are expected, such as maple-beech-birch forests being replaced by oak-hickory in the Northeast. Insect infestations and wildfires are projected to increase as warming progresses. Coldwater Fish Salmon, trout, and other coldwater fish will face additional stresses as water temperatures rise and summer streamflows decline. Ecosystems and the tourism and recreation they support will be adversely affected. Interacting Stresses Population shifts and development choices are making more Americans vulnerable to climate change impacts. An aging populace, and continued population shifts to the Southeast, Southwest, and coastal cities amplify risks associated with extreme heat, sea-level rise, storm surge, and increasing water scarcity in some regions. Coral Reefs Rising water temperatures and ocean acidification threaten coral reefs and the rich ecosystems they support. These and other climate-related impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. 10

11. Key Finding: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase Heat Waves Heat waves will become more frequent and intense, increasing threats to human health and quality of life, especially in cities. . Heavy Downpours More rain is already coming in very heavy events, and this trend is projected to increase across the nation. Such events are harmful to transportation infrastructure, agriculture, water quality, and human health. . Agriculture Increasing heat, pests, floods, weeds, and water stress will present increasing challenges for crop and livestock production. ecosystems will be lost. . . Water and Energy As warming increases competition for water, the energy sector will be strongly affected as power plants require large amounts of water for cooling. . Energy Supply Warming will decrease demand for heating energy in winter and increase demand for cooling energy in summer. The latter will result in significant increases in electricity use and peak demand in most regions. Coastal Communities Sea-level rise and storm surge will increase threats to homes and infrastructure including water, sewer, transportation, and communication systems. Many barrier islands and coastal marshes that protect the coastline and support healthy ecosystems will be lost. . . Water Supply Reduced summer runoff, increased winter runoff, and increasing demands will compound current stresses on water supplies and flood management, especially in the West. . . 11

12. Climate Change is Already Impacting Society • Economy • Communities • Energy production/supply • Human health • Water availability • Food production • National security • Tribal cultures • Biodiversity • Ecosystem services that people depend on (e.g. clean water, coastal protection, food, recreation) ...and will challenge our missions and operations

13. Future Climate Change The future depends largely on choices people make now • Actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will help limit future warming and the need to adapt • Even with emissions reductions, some degree of climate change will continue to occur into the future • Adaptation and mitigation are interconnected

14. Future Climate Change Throughout this century, climate change is projected to bring... • Rising temperatures • Increases in heavy downpours • Rising sea level • Rapidly retreating glaciers • Thawing permafrost • Lengthening growing seasons • Lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers • Earlier snowmelt • Alterations of river flows • Shifts in the timing of seasons

15. What is Adaptation… And why does it matter? NASA –GSFC USGCRP 2009 NOAA

16. The Climate is Already Changing Scientific consensus shows that the Earth’s climate is changing due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere • Global average temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations have risen substantially since 1880 • Most of the warming in the past 50 years has been over land and in the Northern Hemisphere • Year-round average temperatures in the U.S. have already risen 2°F over the past 50 years

17. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Warming “Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States.” - USGCRP 2009 “Drunken trees,” NSIDC • Warming has not been uniform across the world or the nation • Agencies need to plan for varying conditions and impacts across regions and sectors Extreme heat, CDC

18. Projected Temperature Change (°F) from 1961-1979 Baseline Temperatures have already risen in the US an average of 1.5 degrees F in the last 50 years and could rise 2 to 11 degrees in the next century…. End of Century (2081-2099 av.) Mid-Century (2041-2059 average) Higher Emissions Scenario Lower Emissions Scenario Recent Change(1993-2007) Near-Term Projected Change(2011-2029)

19. Climate Change Impacts Are Not Distributed Evenly For example… Western drought, CA Dept. of Water Resources Midwestern flooding, NRCS • Drought frequency has increased in the Southeast and much of the West • Heavy precipitation has increased most in the Midwest and Northeast

20. Vulnerability Is Not Distributed Evenly Vulnerability to climate change and the capacity to adapt vary widely Healthy and Bleached Coral, NOAA Wetlands, NOAA • Social/economic factors Economic status, race, gender, age, ethnicity, and health • Environmental factors Pollution, over-harvesting, and habitat destruction Elderly men, PublicDomainPictures.net

21. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Precipitation Wetlands drought, USDA Iowa flooding, FEMA • U.S. average annual precipitation has increased about 5% over the past 50 years, but the changes were not uniform

23. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Extreme Events Winter storm, Texas, FEMA Snowstorm, Northeast, NOAA Rainstorm, NOAA • Heavy precipitation has increased in both frequency and intensity over the past 50 years

25. One definition: • Adaptation: Adjustment in human or natural systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects (ACC Adapting) IPCC 2007

26. Effectively Anticipating and Responding to a Changing Climate Requires… A continuously evolving understanding of the integrated “climate-society system”to address today’s challenges and plan for the future and An adaptive management approach that provides for regular evaluation and adjustment of decisions as new scientific insights emerge and socio-economic conditions change

27. A common sense approach: Adaptation is Iterative Risk Management… U UKCIP 2003

28. Examples of Adaptation: Improving Urban Air Quality • Refuel vehicles after dark • Encourage mass transportation use by offering free services on Air Quality Alert Days • Encourage residents to limit car travel, especially during daytime • Conserve energy • Avoid outdoor burning

29. Adaptation: reframing the things we do every day • Managers make decisions with imperfect information all the time – why is climate change different? • Adaptive management – deliberate learning by doing • Co-benefits – justify action by addressing other priorities • Small institutional and legal changes can make a big difference, eg eliminating conflicting mandates • Potential for partnerships and economic opportunity • An excuse to do the things that make sense anyway, integrated planning, changes to the National Flood Insurance program, etc.

30. Reframing: Expand the solution set to includenew technologies and practices • Expand portfolio of technology solutions: • desalination, • reuse and recharge of municipal wastewater, • rainwater harvesting, • improved management of floodflows, • integration/redundancy of delivery systems for reliability

31. Reframing: Mainstreaming adaptation into every day decisions • US Infrastructure is aging and needs replacement. Re-evaluate engineering assumptions re: potential for more extreme events and longer-term droughts • Non-stationarity: the past is no longer an analogue for the future

32. Adaptation • The magnitude and rate of future change depends on whether we act to limit emissions, and how the earth system reacts to the resulting emissions trajectory • Should we act proactively in anticipation of change and mobilize to reduce the effects, or simply prepare to react as the impacts arrive?

33. Adaptation • Adaptation is not a choice – our choice is whether to adapt proactively or respond to the consequences. • We have always adapted to variability – but now the trends are moving outside of human experience and we need to be prepared. • Adaptation requires a paradigm shift, focusing on managing risks. We know the trends, but not the magnitude. And coming soon – the report to the President from the Adaptation Task Force

34. Vision Adaptation planning and implementation will help ensure… • A resilient, healthy, and prosperous Nation in the face of a changing climate • Universities achieving their missions and policy and program goals in a changing climate • Wise investment of resources and effective provision of Federal services

35. What is Climate Change Adaptation? Adaptation Adjusting to a changing climate to reduce negative effects and take advantage of new opportunities • Limits climate change risks & damages • Maximizes benefits & opportunities • Reduces long-term costs • Improves the overall resilience of our organizations

36. Why Adaptation is Important for Colleges & Universities Anticipation and planning for risk are responsible, forward-looking management practices Planning ahead will help Colleges and Universities operate, achieve their missions, and provide services while reducing long-term costs

37. Why Adaptation is Important for Federal Agencies Climate change directly affects communities and a wide range of Federal services, operations, programs, and assets • Agencies that work outdoors: extreme heat, cold, and storms • Health agencies: extreme heat, air pollution, and shifting disease vectors • Public land managers: drought, flooding, and wildfire • Agricultural and wildlife agencies: shifting ranges of species and pests • Social service providers: multiple stressors on vulnerable populations