Improving Climate Predictions and Projections Program

1. Climate Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa Program Manager Contributions from: Jin Huang, Ming Ji, Arun Kumar; and Jim Todd Climate Predictions and Projections

2. Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions Reduce uncertainty in climate change projections through timely information on forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems Program Performance Objectives Climate Predictions and Projections

3. Global Change Research Act: This act mandates the development of a research program whose goal is to understand climate variability and its predictability Weather Service Organic Act: Outlines NOAA’s responsibility to produce climate forecasts Coastal Zone Management Act: Requires understanding and predicting long-term climate change which may have large impacts in the coastal zone (such as global warming and associated sea level rise) Strategic plan for the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): requires reduced uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate may change in future. Program Requirements: Legislative Climate Predictions and Projections

4. Understand and predict climate variability on timescales ranging from intraseasonal through seasonal to decadal and beyond Monitor, assess, and forecast climate Improve climate models to reduce uncertainty in the projections of Earth’s climate Improve knowledge of observed variability and change of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment Understand and predict long-term climate change and evaluate its impacts on the coastal zone Program Requirements: NOAA Mission Climate Predictions and Projections

5. Operational Predictions, Projections and Products: To provide operational predictions and products from intraseasonal-to-decadal time scales To provide climate assessments and projections in support of policy decisions with objective and accurate climate change information Program Capabilities: 1 Climate Predictions and Projections

6. High-end Climate/Earth System Model Development: To develop and implement the next generation of climate and Earth System models and to transition improved models into operations Resources reside in the Environmental Modeling program under the Weather and Water goal Program Capabilities: 2 Climate Predictions and Projections

7. Applied Research and Product Development: To improve operational predictions and projections Develop new climate products To sustain an applied research capability in understanding, attributing climate variability and its predictability Program Capabilities: 3 Climate Predictions and Projections

8. Test Models against observations and define requirements for observing systems to support forecasts and improve model: Based on model simulations and predictions studies, provide observational requirements for improving climate predictions and projections Program Capabilities:4 Climate Predictions and Projections

9. The long-term outcomes: NOAA has world-class Earth System Models providing the best climate predictions and projections available. Following users’ requirements develop new climate predictions and projections products. NOAA maintains a suite of routine climate outlooks, climate projections, and climate assessments. NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained by sustained by research funding to enhance NOAA's climate forecasts, assessments, and applications products. Provide observational requirements to GEOSS for improving climate outlooks and projections. Program Outcomes and the End-State Climate Predictions and Projections

10. Current Prediction Products Operational monthly/seasonal outlooks Seasonal hurricane outlook Days 6-10, 8-10 outlooks Drought Monitoring and seasonal outlook Seasonal heat index and wind chill outlook ENSO outlook Climate Services and Products Climate Predictions and Projections

11. Current Informational Products: Contributions to IPCC assessments Climate Attribution reports Observational system requirement reports Climate Services and Products Climate Predictions and Projections

12. Providing operational predictions, projections, and information reports Operational climate outlooks Climate change projections Attribution reports Provide a mechanism for transition-to-operations (the Climate Test-Bed; GAPP Core Project) Develop user required climate products and applications Promote understanding of climate variability and change, and its application for enhancing predictions and products Linking observations with climate predictions and projections Unique Role of the Program in the NOAA Climate Goal Climate Predictions and Projections

13. Functional Structure of the P&P Program Capability 1 Capability 3 &4 Climate Predictions and Projections

14. NOAA Research GFDL NOAA Climate Program Office Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA) Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Predictions CPC EMC Office of Hydrology Participating NOAA Line Offices Climate Predictions and Projections

15. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) National and international working groups (CRC; CCSP; CLIVAR; GAPP; GEWEX; IOC;WMO;…) Academia and research community external to NOAA Numerous bi-lateral and multi-lateral international agreements Participating External Agencies/Organizations Climate Predictions and Projections

16. Operational climate forecasts on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and services (Climate Prediction Center) Model Development for climate predictions and projections Climate projections and decadal climate predictions Transition-to-Operations Current Activities in the Program Climate Predictions and Projections

17. Climate Dynamics and Experimental Predictions Applied research centers assessments and predictions of global climate variability and its regional implications Climate Prediction Program for Americas Improving operational intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and the hydrological applications in the Americas Climate Variability and Predictability To observe, model and understand patterns of climate variability longer time scales Current Activities in the Program Climate Predictions and Projections

18. Competitive Research Address long-term needs (science driven future projects) Merit based through competition Mission oriented but not “directed” Open to external and internal community Directed Research Address short-term needs (e.g., improve operations) Primarily done by the internal NOAA community Climate Test-bed example Competitive externally lead transition projects Base funded (NCEP) internal transition projects Base resource allocated to support transition projects The Role of Competitive Programs Climate Predictions and Projections

19. Relationship with the Other Programs in the Climate Goal Regional Decision Support Program Climate and Ecosystems Program Predictions and Projections Program Climate Forcing Program Climate Observations and Analysis Program Climate Predictions and Projections

20. NOAA has world-class Earth-System Models Number of improved model components Following users’ requirements develop new products Number of improved products Number of new products under development NOAA maintains a suite of climate outlooks Climate Predictive Index: A weighted average of operational skill on intraseasonal, seasonal, and decadal time scales Intraseasonal prediction skill- research Seasonal prediction skill-research Decadal prediction skill-research NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained by sustained research funding Number of information products Program Outcome and Related Performance Measures Climate Predictions and Projections

21. General public, private sector, Regional, and National Managers in Water Resources, Ecosystem, Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, and Public Heath Sectors: The program provides operational forecasts and outlooks of intraseasonal to interannual variations and intradecadal trends. International Coastal Ecosystem Management, Fisheries, Public Health, Regional and National Managers: The program provides objective information about climate change projections in support of making informed policy decisions related to mitigation and adaptation strategies related to global change. Climate Observation and Analysis, Regional Decision Support, and Climate and Ecosystems Programs under the Climate Goal End Users and Beneficiaries Climate Predictions and Projections

22. Climate Process Teams Climate Model Evaluation Project Completion of the field phase of NAME Successful Hurricane outlooks Improved SI prediction techniques Development of Application Products Initiation of Climate Test-Bed Annual Climate Attribution Reports Contributions to IPCC AR4 Development of Drought Prediction Clarifying the role of oceans in global climate NARCAPP Highlights and Past Successes Climate Predictions and Projections

23. GFDL Simulation of Atmospheric Circulation in a Coupled Mode are Among the Best Average of rankings by R.M.S. error for each of 20 circulation, precipitation, TOA energy balance indices Climate Predictions and Projections

24. Z200 Trends Reanalyses and Climate of 20th Century Simulation Trend over last 40 years Coupled model shows some ridging, but simulations could be better – especially in yearly mean and locations Climate Predictions and Projections

25. Simulating and Understanding Active and Inactive Atlantic Tropical storms/hurricanes Seasons 1982 – Inactive year 1995 – Active year Observed (Aug.-Oct.), n=4 Observed (Aug-Oct.), n=15 Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=14 Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=6 GFDL Zetac nonhydrostatic regional model, 18km resolution, with large-scale interior nudging Climate Predictions and Projections

26. Climate Predictions and Projections

27. Objective Consolidation of Different SI Prediction Tools CONSOLIDATION IMPROVES SKILL BY 12% Climate Predictions and Projections

28. Multi-Model Framework for Attribution of Climate Anomalies Observed Sfc. Temp. Average Sfc. Temp. Simulated by 5 AGCMS Climate Predictions and Projections

29. Pilot T126 Uncoupled GLDAS/LIS/Noah: 1979-1995 NCEP/DOE Global Reanalysis Surface Forcing Vol. Soil Moisture 0-200 cm July 1988: Drought Summer Climate Predictions and Projections

30. GFS/Noah reduced longstanding high bias of GFS/OSU over east half of CONUS in the warm season: Example shown for 09-25 May 2005 Mean 17-day surface latent heat flux (W/mm**2) for the 12-36 hour GFS forecast. Ops: GFS/OSU Test: GFS/Noah Climate Predictions and Projections

31. North America REGIONAL REANALYSIS • Long-term set of consistent climate data on a regional scale for the North American domain (1979-present) • NCEP/ETA MODEL 32 KM Spatial Resolution; 3 Hourly Temporal Resolution • Superior to NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis due to: • Use of a regional model • Advances in modeling and data assimilation since 1995: • Precipitation assimilation • Direct assimilation of radiances • Land-surface model updates (REGIONAL REANALYSIS DOMAIN) Climate Predictions and Projections

32. Budget Impacts and FY05 and FY06 Priorities Climate Predictions and Projections

33. Future Directions and Priorities Climate Predictions and Projections

34. 10 Year Plan Where we are now Our near term goals (‘07-’09) Where we plan to be 2020 Region specific climate projections based on the Earth System models Develop and implement strategy with community to improve range and skill of forecast products. Implement systematic research forecasting program Seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation with limited skill and regionality Skillful Seamless suite of Forecasts and products utilizing multi- earth system models Implement routine capability for attribution of recent and past climate anomalies taking into account natural and anthropogenic effects Developing capability for attribution of recent major climate anomalies Real time attribution capability to predict potential climate surprises and respond to new climate questions Implement Earth System Modeling capability with improved components related to forcings and feedbacks. Provide high resolution projections for users Projections of future climate limited by uncertainties in forcings, carbon cycle feedbacks, and limited regionality Asses various technological mitigation activities and their impacts on global and regional environmental changes Process research, hypothesis-testing and diagnostic studies not obviously linked to forecast skill improvements and new products Implement systematic research program to assess potential predictability and improve models Forecast products of the impacts on the environment and ecosystems on a global and regional scale Climate Predictions and Projections

35. Desired End State (based on FY08-12 Planning) Initial State in FY08: Improved operational seasonal forecasts Experimental seasonal forecasts based on multi-model ensembles Develop an understanding of decadal trends Experimental decadal prediction Application models for drought, fire, water resources Earth system models for next sets of national and international assessment Better knowledge of uncertainties in climate projections Development of a vigorous research-to-operations program with implementation of Climate Test-bed Climate Predictions and Projections

36. End State in FY12 Improved operational seasonal forecasts based primarily on dynamical techniques A broader suite of climate forecast products and services (extending to health, energy, ecosystems, disaster mitigation etc.) IPCC AR5 in 2012 and reduced uncertainty in the projection of future climate Transition decadal forecasts into operations Estimate of likelihood of abrupt climate change A robust research-to-operations program implemented Desired End-State (based on FY08-12 Planning) Climate Predictions and Projections

37. Predictions and Projections: An Approach to Attain Desired End-State Decision support products: management & policy Operational Forecasts Performance metrics Transition: Test bed Performance metrics Research Forecasts, Projections and Product Development • Structured Model Experiments • NOAA, national, international Model Development and Computers (in W&W: Environmental Modeling Program) Performance metrics • Process and diagnostic research • Climate variability and change • Abrupt change • Forcings Program Observing Program Climate Predictions and Projections

38. Develop a “life cycle” approach (finite life time projects) for two tracks Areas where existing predictability studies show promise of enhanced skill Where national/international programs (or other considerations) indicate needed research foci – with goal to increase predictive understanding Steps Establish priority areas via: a) results from predictability studies, b) other research, c) AGM (or otherwise) high payoff/relevant areas Finalize the list based on the input from the research community (SAB; ARCs; …) Include research needs in AOs of the appropriate program (CDEP, CPPA, CVP) Fund a group of proposals focusing on identified research needs Monitor progress yearly At the end of the 3-year funding cycle, prepare a “summary assessment report” Results of relevance will be transitioned either to systematic research fcst category or to operations via CTB How do we get There? Develop a Protocol for Linking Research to Improved Capabilities: A Possible Process Climate Predictions and Projections

39. What we have now: C20C simulations with different natural and anthropogenic forcings Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium AMIP simulations forced with global SSTs MM ensemble predictions at IRI (based on tier-2 approach) Empirical-Dynamical prediction system at Climate Diagnostics Center How to get There? Developing a NOAA Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles for Attribution and Prediction Climate Predictions and Projections

40. What is the goal for 2012: A multi-model tier-1 SI prediction capability that would include several national models Multi-model ensembles for regional downscaling Linking to application models Formalization of climate attribution and predictability assessment activity as a NOAA requirement An ability to perform “on-demand” AGCM runs for attribution and predictability assessments A data distribution capability to enhance community involvement in the attribution and predictability aspect of climate variability How to get There? Developing a NOAA Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles for Attribution and Prediction Climate Predictions and Projections

41. Improved week2 skill score Develop a capability to predict climate extremes for week 2,3,4 Develop a predictive understanding of the impacts of climate on the statistics of extreme events, including hurricane Future Directions: Intraseasonal Predictions Climate Predictions and Projections

42. Improved skill of SI Predictions Establisha systematic community based multi-model forecasting capability/infrastructure Develop a dynamical understanding of trends Incorporate impacts of other ocean basins in SI forecasts Systematic predictability assessments to establish baseline predictability limits Implementation of a routine attribution capability Implement drought monitoring, forecasting, and attribution capability Develop an understanding of the influence of climate on environment Develop new forecast products Future Directions: Seasonal-to-Interannual Predictions Climate Predictions and Projections

43. Develop experimental decadal forecast Understand the contributions of natural and anthropogenic effect on the major climate anomalies of 20th Century Understand feedback processes important of abrupt climate change Reduce uncertainty of future climate projections Improve Earth System Model Capability Future Predictions: Decadal-to-Centennial Climate Variability and Trends Climate Predictions and Projections

44. Predictions and Projections: FY08-12 Products • Future Operational Forecasts, Projections and Products • Operational and research seasonal to interannual forecasts • An objective drought monitor and forecast system • Seasonal hydrologic outlooks • Seasonal malaria outlooks • Experimental decadal forecasts • Experimental seasonal air quality outlooks • Yearly attribution reports on previous year’s climate • WMO Ozone Assessment • CCSP Synthesis and Assessment products • Energy related seasonal outlooks • Dynamical seasonal hurricane outlooks • Attribution studies on climatic impacts on ecosystems • Seasonal outlooks for terrestrial carbon budgets • Available online forecasts, projections, structured numerical experiments for impact • and application studies • Future IPCC Assessment Reports • Fire potential outlooks Climate Predictions and Projections

45. New environmental forecast products will be feasible Agricultural production at 50%, blowing dust Major fires Health warning: Limit outdoor activities; expect brownouts major fisheries regime change likely Air quality alerts – 75% of days Swimming and Fishing prohibited Frequent floodings and Asian dust threats continue High danger of toxic CO2 releases Expect fisheries downturn; health threats African bacteria alerts Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and unhealthy Climate Predictions and Projections

46. Contribution of Prediction and Program to the Climate Goal Priorities Climate Predictions and Projections

47. P &P Program Actions Leading to Implementation of NIDIS Activities contribution to development of NIDIS Objective model-based drought-relevant forecasts High resolution drought monitoring (nowcasts – utilizing various LDAS products) Multi-model land and climate forecasts (coupled & off line), e.g. a national drought forecsting capability High resolution downscaling capabilities Research forecasts utilizing dynamic vegetation & river runoff Decadal predictability studies (utilizing global tropical information) Coupled & uncoupled studies to understand 20th C. droughts Climate of last 1000 years – modeling/data studies to understand potential for prolonged droughts & possible 21st C surprises Projections for 21st C. exploring probabilities for future droughts Assessing impacts of Indo-Pacific SST variability and trends on U.S. droughts Assessing impacts of Atlantic decadal variability on U.S. droughts North American research into understanding and predicting hydroclimatic regimes P&P Program Structure Operational Forecasts & Products Research Forecasts and Products Predictability Studies Process Research and Hypothesis Testing Climate Predictions and Projections

48. soil moisture snowpack streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs INITIAL STATE Hydrologic model spin up Multiple Hydrologic Models NCDC met. station obs. up to 2-4 months from current LDAS/other real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap Ensemble forecasts ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP CFS ensemble (20) NSIPP ensemble (9) SNOTEL / MODIS* Update SNOTELUpdate Now 1-2 years back Month 6 - 12 Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction System: A Multi-Model Framework Source: Lettenmaier Climate Predictions and Projections

49. P&P Program Contributions in Support of CCSP Climate Predictions and Projections

50. Development of Earth System models in support of coastal nutrient production and runoff Model based attribution (and future projection over the next few decades) of significant physical and biological changes to climate variability Increased understanding of how variability in climate and ecosystem are linked P&P Program Contributions in Support of Ecosystems Climate Predictions and Projections