SOME FACTS AND OPINIONS ABOUT CRISIS

1. SOME FACTS AND OPINIONS ABOUT CRISIS PRINSJESDAGLECTURE 15 September 2009 WWW.VANDESANDEINLEZINGEN.NL

2. What is Prinsjesdag about? OUGHT IS You can be proven wrong If it is wrong, it is your fault It is a lot of work You have to be somewhat intelligent It is solistic work Proving wrong not possible If it doesn’t come out, you can blame the others The idea comes to you in a flash No special need for intelligence You must be a team player WISHorFEAR TRUTH FINALITY CAUSALITY PRESENT FUTURE UTOPIA MODELLING POLITICS SCIENCE risk analysis POLICY SPECULATION RESEARCH

3. I Some simple facts about HUMANS® The most flexible animal that nature devised

4. 5 4 3 2 1 Making top quality can be time consuming • Earth: 5 billion years • Life on earth: 3 billion years • Poly-cellular: 1 billion years • Vertebrates : 500 million years • Mammals: 200 million years • Primates: 30 million years • Hominides: 2 million years • Homo sapiens: 200.000 years 200 mil 100 mil 20 mil

5. TECHNOLOGY MEETS THE CAVE MAN Improvement also takes much time Our model exists some 200.000 years Of those years 198.000 were before Christ All that time we were building up our civilisation The first 195.000 years this did not amount to much The last 5000 years culture grew with dazzling speed The last 200 years, some amazing developments took place: We developed the technical means to deplete all fossil material built up in the last 3 billion years We developed the technical means to raise average age about 50 years We developed the technical means to combat almost every kind of disaster We developed the technical means to create disasters on an unheard of scale These means were then used by people who had the reflexes of cavemen Prinsjesdag? Bullshit!!

6. PRIMARY CONCERNS OF ANIMAL & MAN TRANSFORMED BY CULTURE • Procreation (Courting, Mating, Rape, Prostitution, Pornography, Marriage) • Child care (Food, Safety, Temperature, Oilily, Kindergarten, Woonerf) • Belonging(Herd, Shoal, Flight, Family, Clan, Tribe, Nation, Community) • Status (Competition, Dominance hierarchy, Image building, Ferrari, Armani, Sports, War) • Communication (Signal systems, NV behavior, Language, Media, Cell phones) • Aggression (Fight/Flight, Threatening, Bluffing, Killing, Vandalism, Weapons) • Hunting (Awaiting, Chasing, Closing in, Stalking, Making the kill, Sales, Bonuses) • Foraging (Seeking food, Eating, Ruminating, Cooking, Sharing) • Exchange (Helping behavior, Nursing, Reciprocity, Trade, Wage-work) • Hoarding (Honey, Acorns, Food, CDs, Shoes, Model trains, Scalps, Dollars) • Territoriality (Making & defending: Area, House, Garden, Gates, Personal space) • Building (Lair, Nest, Trap, Dam, Tent, House, City) • Reconnaissance (Environment, Foes & Predators, Keeping guard, News, Sensation) • Migration (Swarming, Nomadism, Vacation, Emigration) • Body care (Preening, Washing, Grooming, Lipstick, Tattoo, Clothing) • Resting (Sleeping, Waiting, Sunning, Napping, Dolce far niente) All 16 in two forms: For real and Play

7. II Everything seems to be mixed up Symbols as sources of misunderstanding

8. Mixed up

9. Pretty mixed up Salaam aleikum

10. Less pretty, but just as mixed up

11. Why mixed up? • When things get mixed up, it’s always a question of misunderstanding • If we knew why crises happen, we could win a world • Social psychology gives a useful suggestion here: Competition is the key • Things or outcomes have no objective value • The outcome is always relative to what others get • Thus social comparison is the only lead we have • Males become very competitive if the number of marbles they have threatens to be less than their concurrent • Females are also very competitive, but not so much in marbles, they tend to focus on relations

12. III Some times are more mixed up than others We call such times: Crisis

13. Riots in Holland 1600-1790 (5 year-average) © 2006 JP van de Sande RuG 30 25 30 25 35 25

14. Riots in France1830-1960Source: Tilly & Tilly, 1975 © 2006 JP van de Sande RuG 20 23 22 10 32 33

15. © 2006 JP van de Sande RuG Some facts about “crisis” • From: krisis: decision • Was used in medicine: death or gladiols • Around 1900 applied to other fields • But the crisis of 1930 was called: Depression • The word crisis nowadays is mainly used for critical periods in government and management • A crisis is only a crisis when it is called a crisis • This is done very eagerly by the media • So thanks to them we have crises in almost everything: economics, finance, government, sports, science, the church, education, health care, family life, politics, the media, etc.

16. What is crisis? • Crisis is not that everybody loses some money, that things get broken, lives are in danger, norms and laws lose their power, people and cattle take flight, et cetera. • For bankers, police, fire brigades, etc. that is just: work • Crisis is that the governing system breaks down, loses oversight and desists to lead or takes crucial wrong decisions. • Crisis thus is more about what we think leaders do and about loss of trust. Not about facts: We know them not! • Therefore the Romans knew the dictator (180 days max.) • In hindsight it is mostly possible to devise a reasonable solution • Then it must also be possible in foresight!

17. Consequences of crisis • Because our society is so highly organised, it is also very susceptible to crisis, and a crisis is very devastating • Everything is connected to everything • Everything thus needs to be managed an coordinated • There is little slack and thus small margins (lean organisations: small stocks, high productivity of work force, no redundancy) • Employees are highly specialized • There are only a few sources of energy, over which we have no control • Only a few know something about “Natural Mechanics” • Therefore modern man, and thus modern society is far less flexible as regards survival than 50 years ago. (Life without computers, cell phones, TV’s, plastic, cars, supermarkets, etc. is unthinkable) • Subconsciously we realize that it is so, thus we are very interested in crises

18. Starting and ending points of crisis (Chaos model) N U M B E R in vol ved STRENGTH of STIMULUS

19. CRISIS is intrinsically human • CRISES ARE CAUSED BY HUMANS • Things are normal until we call them abnormal • CRISES ARE MAINTAINED BY HUMANS • When things go wrong everybody reacts in the same way, thus causing more havoc • CRISES ARE SOLVED BY HUMANS • As soon as confidence is restored, and this will happen inevitably, the crisis is solved Lessons from psychology therefore may be of some use to us

20. IV Some opinions about HUMANS® The meeting of caveman and culture

21. Mankind travels along two rails NATURE We are mammals ‘Instincts’ Behavioural mechanisms Slow development SOCIETY:Gemeinschaft Need to belong Group goals Duty; Honour; Tradition Conservative; Stability Religion; Magic Charismatic leadership STRONG TIES Crisis Cohesion & cooperation up Improvisation Fight/flight CULTURE We are rational thinkers Norms & Values Cost-Benefit analysis Quick planning SOCIETY: Gesellschaft Need for freedom Goals are individualistic Freedom; Money; Change Progressive; Dynamic Ideology; Science Transactional leadership WEAK TIES Crisis Cohesion & cooperation downPlanning & priorities Professionality © 2006 JP van de Sande RuG being becoming

22. LEADERSHIP & CRISIS • Crisis: Grave perturbation of normal business and normal forms of organization. Per definition not well prepared • Effect: New norms and forms of organization are needed. Everyone tries his own solutions and primarily cares for himself and his family. This generally results in CHAOS. SO • In crisis people need direction, and any direction is better than none. • Therefore people in crisis look for leadership as a means of obtaining unidirectionality • The leader must be a suitable person to identify with • If the leader is seen as ‘one of us’, and thus as strong and honest, he is effective, e.g. in combating rumors • In crisis it is impossible to obtain correct information, therefore we believe what the ‘one of us’ leader says

23. Charismatic or transformational leadership. Freud’s vision (1921) • Basics • Man is born with the aptitude for many social mechanisms • In the Primal horde, these are seen in their purest form • Hierarchy and despotism are the rule. Love and hate for the leader occur together • Starting points • Leader has special competences (practical and verbal) and fascination for an idea • Leader has personal liking for his inferiors and tends to seek them out • Leader has Narcistic personality • Therefore leader needs constant confirmation of excellency of own self by inferiors • Development • On the basis of these competences leader gains credit • Credit is seen by leader as proof that his narcistic choice was right • Followers feel important through identification with the leader • Effects: • Leader’s wish is felt as own wish (identification) • Leader keeps gaining strength (vicious circle) • Every follower has the idea that he has a personal relation with leader • Strong and self-willed followers get into conflict and either leave group or win

24. PROBLEMSOLVING for FOLLOWERS

25. Some opinions • A crisis is a malady of the commonwealth • Crisis is worldwide, because our economy is worldwide. • Globalisation not only enhances the benefits of being clever, it also enhances the penalties for doing wrong. • If economy were something which was different in each human group, then these groups would still have crises but they would not happen together at the same time. For one community the camels would get scarce, for another there would be too much kauri shells, for one community the potlatch would appear to have been too ample to stay alive, for another the maidens would run out, so that no suitable offerings for the gods could be found and consequently it would not rain. • Autonomy and autarky thus are means to ensure the survival of most of us • The motor of globalisation is the Faustian wish to conquer all. (e.g. “Denn heute gehort uns Deutschland, und morgen die ganze Welt”) • Growth is something which belongs to childhood

26. Training period long Selection on managerial capacities Promotion based on avoiding blame Goals long term Democratic attitude and leadership Concern for correct procedures Sanctions for relatively small infractions Technical solutions for human problems Rivality between services Professionalisation Preparation Training period short Selection on inspiration and enthousiasm Promotion based on results Goals short term Autoritarian attitude and leadership “Cutting the red tape” Polarisation in sanctions Human solutions for technical problems Superordinate goal reduces rivalities Improvisation Resilience War organisation vs. Peace organisation