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Energy Transition: Gainesville’s Path?

Energy Transition: Gainesville’s Path?. Dr. Wendell A. Porter, P.E. Our Current Situation. Landfill Gas Combined Heat and Power Feed in Tariff, about 20MW of PV total Tiered rate structure Energy efficient community, using as much electricity as we did in 2004. Highest rates in Florida.

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Energy Transition: Gainesville’s Path?

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  1. Energy Transition: Gainesville’s Path? Dr. Wendell A. Porter, P.E.

  2. Our Current Situation • Landfill Gas • Combined Heat and Power • Feed in Tariff, about 20MW of PV total • Tiered rate structure • Energy efficient community, using as much electricity as we did in 2004. • Highest rates in Florida

  3. Current Conversations • We talk about rates and compare ourselves to other communities. • We should talk about bills and compare ourselves to other regions. • Average residential electrical consumption in Florida is about 1081 kWh/month. • Average residential monthly consumption is approximately 780kWh.

  4. New Conversations: Competition • On a per capita basis, the US consumes about 12,785 kWh/yr. • Germany, Japan, Denmark, most of Europe consumes about 6,000 kWh/yr for residential, commercial, industrial and transportation uses. • Where’s Gainesville? Between 8,000 and 9,000 kWh/yr • A true goal of business competitiveness should include resource efficiency.

  5. World Trends: Renewable Energy • In 2011 more capital was invested in renewable energy electricity production than in fossil fuel electricity production. • Six countries produce virtually all of their electricity from renewable sources • Nearly 60 countries get more than half of their electricity from renewable sources. Sweden, Switzerland, Canada, etc. • Ten US states get more than 20% of their electricity from renewable sources. The US as a whole gets about 13.5% of electricity from renewable energy. • These are the trends that should guide us into the future.

  6. World Trends: Nuclear Power and Fossil Fuels • Levy County nuclear plants: Canceled • Crystal River: Permanent shutdown • Virtually no private investment in nuclear energy. • Five reactors have recently been decommissioned • Five new ones are currently under construction (2 are re-starts). • US production: just under 20%

  7. World Trends: Nuclear Power and Fossil Fuel • Oil-fired power plants are limited market applications: Hawaii, Arctic Alaska, fraction of 1% • Coal: Used to be 60+% of US production, now 39% and falling. Estimates say that nearly 60,000 MW of capacity will shut down by 2020. • Natural gas: about 30%

  8. Natural Gas • Florida is approaching 70% of electricity production from natural gas. • What’s the future of natural gas prices? • Current number of natural gas drilling rigs is at a 16 year low. Production has been flat for more than 2 years. We still import natural gas. • Assume half of the 60,000MW of coal goes to natural gas. • Production grows to eliminate 5% net imports from Canada • Fleet conversion (locomotive, trucks, cars) adds another 5% • Need to find about 20% more natural gas, immediately.

  9. Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuel Futures • There is no near term future for nuclear energy in Florida • Use of oil for electricity production is a non-starter • DeutscheBank is right: Coal is Dead Man Walking. • Natural gas looks plentiful, but the price is going up, possibly way up. • Florida is stuck with no: • Uranium mines • Coal fields • Gas deposits • Oil • We are at the mercy of external market forces for everything!

  10. The Alternative Future • Gainesville should have a goal to be the most efficient community in the USA. • Gainesville should develop a planned expansion of rooftop PV, or distributed generation. • Penetration rates of 20% or more should be planned for selective neighborhoods. • Regardless of the rancor, the biomass plant represents renewable energy with a stable local fuel source. • We should accelerate the end of life shutdown of Deerhaven. • The mix of power for Gainesville should be: • Energy efficiency • PV • Biomass • Natural gas

  11. The Alternative Future • Community wide effort to promote energy efficiency and PV. • The economics are very favorable. • How do we involve renters and low-income families, a large segment of Gainesville’s population? • Next presentation is about PACE, Property Assessed Clean Energy

  12. Why should we follow this alternative path? • When we moved to Gainesville in 1994 worldwide annual production of PV was 60MW. The world will install 46,000MW this year. • The world has installed more than 320,000 MW of modern wind power machines and over 100,000 MW of PV. • Geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric power are all growing (not as fast) • Coal is being shutdown by the 1000’s of MW. Nuclear energy is stalled. • Natural gas is racing to a price collision with renewables.

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