Development of UK EBO Analysis The Big Picture

1. Development of UK EBO AnalysisThe BigPicture Philip Jones Team Leader (Operational Effects Analysis) Dstl Policy and Capability Studies Dstl/CP16578

2. Why What Policy statements • “The ability to detect the emergence of threats to understand their nature, and our adversaries’ motivations, intentions and capabilities allows us to target their weaknesses and better identify our own vulnerabilities.” Defence White Paper 2003 • “The highest level of priority should be accorded to research aimed at improving the modelling of operations from an effects based perspective”MoD Technology Strategy • “The implications [of EBO] on campaign development, ISR and target selection need to be investigated as well as developing metrics for and the modelling of such non-kinetic approaches”.JCB Insights

3. Content • EBO Context • Overview of the analytical Challenge • The ‘Big Picture’ of UK Analytical Developments • Drivers and resistors to further development • Conclusions

4. 6 Flavours!* * From: Joshua Ho, The advent of a new way of war: the theory and practice of EBO • Efficient targeting • Exploit enemy weak points by analysing capabilities as a total system • A planning methodology • Emphasises strategy to task links • Application of all sources of national power • Diplomatic, military and economic • Rapid Dominance • Rapid and synergistic application of force • Dealing with uncertainty • Arising from a complex adaptive adversary • Network-centric Warfare • Improve agility, co-ordination, mobilisation of knowledge and expertise to defeat a complex adaptive adversary

5. Modelling limited to direct effects Goal State of the art? Current “Physical” military targets TheAnalytical Challenge Leadershiptargets Cyberspace infrastructure C3 and industry Tanks, soldiers Direct military operations Instruments Information warfare Political / military economic Integration and adaptation Military Forces Head-on- head Manoeuvre of forces and fires Networked and dynamic Soft factors Perceptions Decisions Societal behaviour Targets in cognitive and behavioural domains From Davis P K, EBO: A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community (RAND, 2001)

6. The Analytical challenge Current Analytical Focus Diplomatic Military Economic Insight Resilience Reassure Transform Prevent Deter Coerce Disrupt Defeat Destroy Stabilise Strategic Planning Effects

7. So what’s MoD doing ...

8. EBO - The Big Picture Operational context Policy and capability context Joint Vision Policy Dev’t Capability Dev’t EBA - Comprehensive Approach EBO Concepts Strategic Trends FCD DSG Force Development EC BoI EBO Doctrine Processes Specific BoI ForceStructures Effects Based Approach to Operations Sub- Processes Planning Execution Knowledge Base Assessment COEIAs OA Studies Planning Tools Analysis Tools Pol MilGaming CampaignModels HistoricalAnalysis Mil / Expert Judgement M&S Environment Tools Experimentation Empirical Underpinning Knowledge / Information sets Specific Context Theoretical Raw Data

9. MoD Analytical Development: Key Stakeholders Operational context Policy and capability context Joint Vision Policy Dev’t Capability Dev’t Pol Planning JDCC D Strat Plans EBA - Comprehensive Approach EBO DIS Concepts Strategic Trends FCD DSG Force Development EC BoI DEP EBO Doctrine DFD PJHQ Processes Specific BoI ForceStructures Effects Based Approach to Operations ISTAR DTA DTIO JTFHQ HQARRC Sub- Processes Planning Execution Knowledge Base Assessment COEIAs OA Studies Warfare Centres CCII DAES CBM J6 Planning Tools Analysis Tools Pol MilGaming CampaignModels HistoricalAnalysis Mil / Expert Judgement M&S Environment Tools Experimentation S&A Empirical Underpinning Knowledge / Information sets Specific Context Theoretical Raw Data

10. MoD Analytical Development: Key Developers Operational context Policy and capability context Joint Vision Policy Dev’t Capability Dev’t JDCC EBA - Comprehensive Approach EBO Concepts Strategic Trends FCD DSG Force Development EC BoI EBO Doctrine Processes Specific BoI ForceStructures Effects Based Approach to Operations OABHQ ARRC J5(OA)PJHQ Warfare Centres DeployedOA Cells Dstl Sub- Processes Planning Execution Knowledge Base Assessment COEIAs OA Studies DTIO Niteworks Planning Tools Analysis Tools Pol MilGaming CampaignModels HistoricalAnalysis Mil / Expert Judgement M&S Environment Tools Qinetiq Experimentation Empirical Underpinning Knowledge / Information sets Specific Context Theoretical Raw Data

11. MoD Analytical Development: Example Outputs Operational context Policy and capability context Joint Vision Policy Dev’t Capability Dev’t Strategic Assessment Method Revised PlanningScenarios EBA - Comprehensive Approach EBO Concepts Strategic Trends FCD DSG Force Development EC BoI Air OpsFramework EBO Doctrine Joint CampaignDevelopment MetricsBest Practice Target SystemAnalysis Collateral Damage Processes Specific BoI ForceStructures Effects Based Approach to Operations Attitude Assessment State regime coercion Cultural Assessment State regime Intent Change Personality profiling HistoricalAnalysis Sub- Processes Planning Execution Knowledge Base Assessment COEIAs OA Studies Social NetworkAnalysis Influence Analysis EB PlanningTool Targeting physical networks Planning Tools Analysis Tools Pol MilGaming CampaignModels HistoricalAnalysis Mil / Expert Judgement M&S Environment Tools Experimentation Info Ops PlanningTool Attitudinal MoEs Remote Attitude Assessment Empirical Underpinning Knowledge / Information sets Specific Context Theoretical Remote PersonalityProfiling Modelling socio-technical networks Role of‘White’ UnderstandingNSAs Raw Data

12. How are we doing? (as at Aug 05) • Domain: Physical, Cognitive • Adversary types: State actors,NSAs • White: just starting • Blue: political will and coalition dynamics • Range of strategic planning effects: Coercion, others • Level of Effect: strategic, operational, tactical • Persistence: short and long-term intent change • Means and ways: Instruments of Power; physical and information • Desired and undesired effects • Lines of development: awaiting Effects Development Plan • Analytical capability: measurement; modelling

13. How are we doing? • Overall, we MoD and the International defence analytical community are making progressBut … • It requires concerted multi-year research • Based on theory • Often drawing on empirical ‘real world’ information

14. “Physical” military targets Leadershiptargets Cyberspace infrastructure “Physical” military targets Modelling limited to direct effects C3 and industry Goal Tanks, soldiers State of the art? Current Direct military operations Direct military operations Instruments Information warfare Political / military economic Integration and adaptation Military Forces Head-on- head Manoeuvre of forces and fires Networked and dynamic Soft factors Perceptions Targets in cognitive and behavioural domains Decisions Societal behaviour Targets in cognitive and behavioural domains Drivers and Resistors

15. “Physical” military targets Direct military operations Instruments Targets in cognitive and behavioural domains Drivers and Resistors: Geo-political context • Increased emphasis on security outcomes, not just battle outcomes • hence revised planning scenarios • 87% of operational manpower effort spent on sustained Peace Support Operations* • Critical to support other instruments of power • Critical to change attitudes / behaviour • Increasingly facing an asymmetrical threat • No tanks, aircraft and ships to target! • Big drive for EBO from the US Military * Based on Historical Analysis of DeployedLand Operations 1996-2003

16. “Physical” military targets Direct military operations Instruments Targets in cognitive and behavioural domains Drivers and Resistors: Nature of the Science Base • Need to incorporate the ‘soft’ sciences • e.g. Psychology, anthropology, international relations • Tiny minority of scientists in MoD • Not easy to exploit • Interpretive v Functionalist • Multiple competing theories • Raises validation issues • Need to understand the differing philosophical perspectives Complex Soft Hard

17. Drivers and Resistors: Current research priorities • No MoD EBO analytical development strategy [Effects Development Plan] • Policy priorities are not being translated into research priorities • Decreasing budgets force emphasis on ‘core business’ • Focus on: • Long-term equipment acquisition • Reducing acquisition risk not operational risk • No research output for Support to Ops • Intensive ‘Warfighting’ Ops • Intra-defence research collaboration “Physical” military targets Direct military operations EC Focus Instruments Targets in cognitive and behavioural domains

18. Drivers and Resistors: Current research BoI • <1% of the S&T Research Budget is being spent to ‘expand the diamond’ • <<1% of the equipment programme is being spent to develop associated capabilities • Human adversary research amounts to only 3% of Output 4 Human Capabilities Domain “Physical” military targets 1%(3%) 99%(97%) Direct military operations Instruments Targets in cognitive and behavioural domains

19. MoD Analytical Development: Example Outputs Operational context Policy and capability context Joint Vision Policy Dev’t Capability Dev’t Strategic Assessment Method Revised PlanningScenarios EBA - Comprehensive Approach EBO Concepts Strategic Trends FCD DSG Force Development EC BoI Air OpsFramework EBO Doctrine Joint CampaignDevelopment MetricsBest Practice Target SystemAnalysis Collateral Damage Processes Specific BoI ForceStructures Effects Based Approach to Operations Attitude Assessment State regime coercion Cultural Assessment State regime Intent Change Personality profiling HistoricalAnalysis Sub- Processes Planning Execution Knowledge Base Assessment COEIAs OA Studies Social NetworkAnalysis Influence Analysis EB PlanningTool Targeting physical networks Planning Tools Analysis Tools Pol MilGaming CampaignModels HistoricalAnalysis Mil / Expert Judgement M&S Environment Tools Experimentation Info Ops PlanningTool Attitudinal MoEs Remote Attitude Assessment Empirical Underpinning Knowledge / Information sets Specific Context Theoretical Remote PersonalityProfiling Modelling socio-technical networks Role of‘White’ UnderstandingNSAs Raw Data

20. MoD Analytical Development: Ongoing Activity Operational context Policy and capability context Joint Vision Policy Dev’t Capability Dev’t Strategic Assessment Method Revised PlanningScenarios EBA - Comprehensive Approach EBO Concepts Strategic Trends FCD DSG Force Development EC BoI Air OpsFramework EBO Doctrine Joint CampaignDevelopment MetricsBest Practice Target SystemAnalysis Collateral Damage Processes Specific BoI ForceStructures Effects Based Approach to Operations Attitude Assessment State regime coercion Cultural Assessment State regime Intent Change Personality profiling HistoricalAnalysis Sub- Processes Planning Execution Knowledge Base Assessment COEIAs OA Studies Social NetworkAnalysis Influence Analysis EB PlanningTool Targeting physical networks Planning Tools Analysis Tools Pol MilGaming CampaignModels HistoricalAnalysis Mil / Expert Judgement M&S Environment Tools Experimentation Info Ops PlanningTool Attitudinal MoEs Empirical Remote Attitude Assessment Underpinning Knowledge / Information sets Specific Context Theoretical Remote PersonalityProfiling Modelling socio-technical networks Role of‘White’ UnderstandingNSAs Raw Data

21. Conclusions

22. Conclusions • “The greatest risk to UK security is that the strategic environment will change more quickly than the UK can acquire and / or apply resources to meet that threat” JDCC - Strategic Trends 2003 • The UK’s analytical capabilities are slowly adapting to changes in the strategic environment • Still overwhelmingly focused on defeating state opponents in short, high intensity conflict • Increasing the pace of change will require: • Effective and bold leadership • Better alignment of research priorities to policy and operational needs • A greater concern for mitigating near-term operational risk

23. Policy statements • “The ability to detect the emergence of threats to understand their nature, and our adversaries’ motivations, intentions and capabilities allows us to target their weaknesses and better identify our own vulnerabilities.” Defence White Paper 2003 • “The highest level of priority should be accorded to research aimed at improving the modelling of operations from an effects based perspective”MoD Technology Strategy • “The implications [of EBO] on campaign development, ISR and target selection need to be investigated as well as developing metrics for and the modelling of such non-kinetic approaches”.JCB Insights

24. The reality • Very little funding available to support development of studies into the theoretical / leadership / social / cognitive aspects of EBO • Overwhelming focus remains on research to promote the acquisition of equipment to achieve physical effects in high intensity conflict

25. Questions When? • “The ability to detect the emergence of threats to understand their nature, and our adversaries’ motivations, intentions and capabilities allows us to target their weaknesses and better identify our own vulnerabilities.” Defence White Paper 2003 • “The highest level of priority should be accorded to research aimed at improving the modelling of operations from an effects based perspective”MoD Technology Strategy • “The implications [of EBO] on campaign development, ISR and target selection need to be investigated as well as developing metrics for and the modelling of such non-kinetic approaches”.JCB Insights Where? How?