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European Population Grids: From Models to Official Statistics

Explore the history and development of European population grids since the 1970s, with a focus on GEOSTAT projects aiming to produce detailed census-based grids. Discover the application of grid data in spatial analysis and its significance for statistics. Learn about upcoming conferences and recommendations for future censuses.

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European Population Grids: From Models to Official Statistics

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  1. European population grids, from Models to Official Statistics Ekkehard Petri (Janusz Dygaszewicz)

  2. History of grid data in Europe • Grid data as additional territorial output system for statistics in Europe since ~2000 (Tandem projects) • National population grids in Scandinavia since the 1970ies • First modelled European population grid since +2001 (Gallego et al.) • First proposal for a European grid using hybrid sources (Nordic Grid club in 2005)

  3. European Forum for Geography and Statistics • Expert group on spatial statistics • Mainly GIS experts from NSIs and Mapping Authorities, but increasingly users of spatial statistics and spatial information • Reference group for the GEOSTAT projects • Annual conferences on spatial statistics, strong UN-GGIM focus. Next conference from 10-12 Nov in Vienna, in 2016 in Paris

  4. GEOSTAT 1 – mapping the 2011 Census on a 1km² population grid • Three stages • 1A methodology + 2006 prototype (GEOSTAT 2006) • 1B refinement use cases + 2011 prototype (GEOSTAT 2011 V1) • 1C final grid (GEOSTAT 2011 V2)

  5. Goal of GEOSTAT 1 • Produce a 1km² population grid of the 2011 census from as many national datasets as possible (aggregated or hybrid data sources) • Develop a methodology for population grids from statistical and spatial data sources • Develop quality assessment parameters in addition to traditional statistical (ESMS) and spatial (INSPIRE) metadata • Address the issue of data confidentiality • Discuss business models of grid data • Show the application of grid data in spatial analysis • Present a vision for spatial reference framework for statistics

  6. Results of GEOSTAT 1 • 29 of 32 EU + EFTA countries provided national data on residential population (aggregated, mix of aggregation and partial modelling using hybrid data sources) => Innovate spatial statistics on a voluntary is possible • Standard methodology for the aggregation of point based or very small area statistics into 1km² grids developed => GIS and other technical issues solved

  7. Results • 1st version of quality documentation template  • Use cases: Accessibility to health services • Definition of a new sample frame 

  8. Results • GEOSTAT 2011 data free of charge for non-commercial use  but some countries have reservations to make all grid data freely available (source of income) • Confidentiality remains a huge problem no harmonised methodology among countries, difficult trade-off between additional breakdowns and data protection -> GEOSTAT 2011 only residential population 

  9. Use of population grids • Support EU Cohesion policy (Accessibility studies e.g. to public services, green areas) • Population based typologies (cities) • Concentration analysis (clustering of foreign born citizens) • Support the Sustainable Development Goals e.g. accessibility, definition of cities, exposure to disasters

  10. Recommendations for future censuses • 1km² as cell size is a good compromise between usefulness for regional to sub-national analysis, and confidentiality issues and business interests of NSOs. • Population grids on core topics should be produced more frequently (e.g. residential population annually). • Cross-tabulations create massive confidentiality issues and should be avoided. • Information should come from point based data from administrative sources or full enumerations as modelling has quality issues in particular for time series analysis.

  11. Plans for the next Census • More data should come from geocoded administrative records • More breakdowns in addition to total residential population • Three age classes, sex, information on education, employment, citizenship and change of residence all with very limited breakdowns and no cross-tabulations • Solving the confidentiality challenge • Experiments with day-and-night-time population

  12. GEOSTAT 2 project as the spatial reference framework for statistics and censuses • Recommendations on a system of geocoded address and dwelling points for official statistics • Geocoded sample frame • Duration from 2015-2016

  13. Further information • Website of the European Forum for Geography and Statistics EFGS www.efgs.info • Website of the GEOSTAT 2 project http://www.efgs.info/geostat/2 • Download the GEOSTAT 2011 population grid http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/geodata/reference-data/population-distribution-demography • Report on case study on accessibility to health services http://www.efgs.info/geostat/1B/frontpage/appendix-11-access-to-emergency-hospitals

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