Dell Global Security Conference: Mexico and the Middle East April 6, 2011

1. Dell Global Security Conference: Mexico and the Middle East April 6, 2011

2. OVERVIEW • Situation in Mexico • 2012 Election Preview • Status of the Drug Trafficking Organizations • Middle East and North Africa • Political Change and Popular Unrest • Possibility of Multiple Israeli Conflicts

3. MEXICO: TRENDS • Current Status and Trends • - 2010 was a year of unprecedented violence • -More fluidity among cartel alliances and changes in the territory held by various cartels • -Continuation of efforts to disrupt cartel distribution networks, safe havens and leadership • Possible Changes coming to the Status Quo: • -Elections, in both Mexico and the United States • -Possible change in strategy to fight the cartels • -Cyclical changes in Cartel Recruitment and Training

4. MEXICO: 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS • Election scheduled for July 1, 2012 • Three Major Players: • PAN – National Action Party – In power since 2000 elections • PRI – Institutional Revolutionary Party • PRD – Democratic Revolutionary Party • Drug violence is a reminder of Calderon’s unfulfilled campaign promises • PRI is the early leader with Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto making a strong play to be the presidential candidate Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto AFP/Getty Images

5. MEXICO: TRENDS IN THE CARTEL WAR • Mexican Government continues its policies of disruption with the use of the revamped Federal Police forces • Rampant problems with police corruption. Renewed reports of military corruption • Disruption leads to new scrambles for control over critical territory

6. MEXICO: AREAS OF CARTEL INFLUENCE

7. MEXICO: WATCH ITEMS • Status of Monterrey • Zetas and New Federation forces attempts to drive out competition • Continued violence expected • Command and Control of the Zetas Organization • Need for additional recruits • Decrease in Discipline and Advanced Training • Ultimate result is more dangerous and unpredictable actions, such as the confrontation with ICE agents and the David Hartley murder at Falcon Lake • Status of Mexico City • Possible loss of neutrality, due to cartel movement

8. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA: TRENDS • Political Change and Popular Unrest • Tour d’Horizon of countries impacted • Beneficiaries of the Conflicts • Watch Items • Possible Israeli Conflicts • Hamas • Hezbollah • Iran

9. MENA: POLITICAL CHANGE AND UNREST

10. MENA: POLITICAL CHANGE AND UNREST Three Groups of Impacted Countries: • Transfer of power underway: • 1. Egypt • 2. Tunisia • 3. Libya • Countries still experiencing unrest, or ongoing political problems: • 1. Yemen • 2. Saudi Arabia • 3. Bahrain • 4. Oman • 5. Syria • Demonstrations without significant threat of regime change: • 1. Jordan • 2. Morocco • 3. Algeria • 4. Iran

11. MENA: TOUR D’HORIZON • Egypt and Tunisia • In Egypt and Tunisia, there has been a change of leadership, but no change in actual power structure so far • Military will be challenged to provide the changes demanded by the people without losing their hold on important economic levers • Flashpoint – Questions or charges against Hosni and Gamal Mubarak for corruption, human rights abuses, and other crimes • Travel Security – Protests could emerge at any time, with Fridays seen as the most dangerous flashpoint

12. MENA: TOUR D’HORIZON • Libya • Conflict in Libya is expected to continue, though a political accommodation is possible. • Most Significant Implications: • -Porous Borders could support the arming and safe-haven of AQIM and other Islamist Groups • -Rebel Arms falling into the wrong hands • -Increased energy prices • -Likelihood of prolonged conflict, even after NATO forces have completed their mission

13. MENA: AQIM • Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb • Unconfirmed reports that AQIM has procured MANPADS and surface-to-air weapons in Libya • Operations are moving further south into Mali and Niger • Amateur operations requiring little training or sophistication • Funding through kidnap-for-ransom ventures

14. MENA: TOUR D’HORIZON • Bahrain and Saudi Arabia • Situation in Bahrain has quieted since the arrival of Saudi troops • Saudi troops make an attractive target for anti-regime activists, possibly triggering additional protests and crackdowns • Primarily targeting French installations and personnel, though Israelis are still within their target set • Watch Items: • – Iranian Involvement • – Protester Deaths

15. MENA: TOUR D’HORIZON • Yemen • Yemen is the most likely regime to collapse next, possibly leading to civil war • Current crisis has pitted Saleh against anti-regime protesters led by Gen. Ali Mohsin, commander of the northwestern division and first armored brigade • Potential for disaster has led both sides to negotiate • Watch Item: Saudi Military Involvement Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh Official Picture

16. MENA: AQAP • Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula • Beneficiary of the lack of governance in Yemen • Crisis can bring new openings as the government reorganizes and as U.S. forces realign • Watch Item: Can the group “mature” as a militant organization, or will it be relegated to the psychological battlefield?

17. MENA: TOUR D’HORIZON • Syria • Protests in various cities—Daraa, Hom, Latakia, Hama --quickly broken up by police and security services • Government has learned lessons from previous uprisings and from the situations in Egypt and Tunisia. Violence should be expected in crackdowns • Structural problems have simmered for decades • Political concessions are being made • Watch Items: • - Involvement of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood • -Possible repeal of the State of Emergency • -Involvement of Iranians to help the Assad regime Syrian President Bashar al Assad Official Picture

18. MENA: ANOMALIES OF UNREST • Oman • Fighting in the industrial city of Sohar with pro-government demonstrations in Muscat • Possible Iranian and/or UAE involvement • Kuwait • Structure issue related to treatment of the Bedouins in Kuwaiti society • Possible Iranian involvement

19. MENA: POLITICAL CHANGES • Jordan • Protest activity crackdown in late March to prevent a larger-scale violent confrontation • Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political wing of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, is allowing youth to take the lead • Willingness to make political concessions to further co-opt the opposition into the government • Algeria • Several political concessions, including revisions to the constitution, ultimately strengthening Bouteflika’s position • Little organized opposition, combined with unwillingness to support popular protest

20. MENA: POLITICAL CHANGES • Morocco • Majority of early protesters demanded reforms, rather than regime change • Military is not a concern • Watch Items: • - Opposition involvement in reform committees • - Pace of reforms • - Calls for constitutional monarchy Morocco’s King Mohammed VI Time Magazine

21. MENA: POSSIBILITY OF ISRAELI CONFLICT • Possible Israeli Conflict with Palestinians • Israelis seem to be trying to avoid conflict despite several provocations • - Stabbing deaths of settlers • - March 23 Jerusalem bus bomb attack • - Increase in rockets toward settled areas • Provocation of this sort would benefit Syria, Iran and Hamas, while causing serious problems for the Egyptian regime

22. MENA: POSSIBILITY OF ISRAELI CONFLICT • Possible Israeli Conflict with Hezbollah • Rumors surfacing that Hezbollah, via Iranian and Syrian interests, is interested in reigniting the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah • Hezbollah is now better armed than in 2006 • Watch Item: New negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Syria regarding the next Prime Minister

23. MENA: POSSIBILITY OF ISRAELI CONFLICT • Possible Israeli Conflict with Iran • Low possibility of Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear facilities due to lack of intelligence about targets and scope of the Iranian nuclear program • Human Intelligence problem, rather than a military problem • Additional covert activity expected

24. For more information about STRATFOR’s services for Dell, please contact: Anya Alfano Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com (415) 404-7344 or (703) 622-2888