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Not More than You Can Chew Bite-sized tactics to make sense of your metrics #13NTCbite. Jo Miles Food & Water Watch @ josmiles. The Problem. Sometimes working with data feels like biting off more than you can chew. The Solution.
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Not More than You Can Chew Bite-sized tactics to make sense of your metrics #13NTCbite Jo Miles Food & Water Watch @josmiles
The Problem Sometimes working with data feels like biting off more than you can chew
The Solution Break your great big data needs into delicious, bite-sized pieces.
Today, we’ll talk about: • The right way to think about data • Data analysis, without a lot of math • Working more efficiently with data • Making time for data in your busy day • Using your data for better decision-making • How to be a Data Analysis Honey Badger!
We will NOT talk about: • Technical ways to collect your data • What metrics to collect • Statistics • Data modeling • Advanced analysis software
NTEN/Idealware Report: "State of Nonprofit Data” It says a majority of orgs don't find their data useful for decision-making. And many have trouble tracking it.
Challenges in using data effectively • Data collection/quality • Expertise • Technology • Prioritization/time
Challenges in using data effectively • Data collection/quality • Expertise • Technology • Prioritization/time
What does it take to be a data analysis honey badger? Not as much as you’d think… Wikimedia: MatejBatha
Only track data that's useful • If it’s not useful… Don't spend time on it! • Ask yourself: • Is this data likely to change much over time? • Will I go back and look at it? • What will I do differently if this data looks good or bad?
Know what to track • Every system is different • Every organization is different Track this stuff!
Track on a timeframe that's useful to you Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly…
Measure regularly • Create an easy format to track metrics: • Email response rates • Action rates • Donation counts • Update it diligently • In 30 minutes or less • Schedule reports if you can • Summarize with charts • Look for trends and surprises
Analyze as needed • Measuring won’t tell you everything • Use analysis to answer specific questions… • …but only when you need to.
Analysis = Big Questions • Are our activists more likely to donate? • What sources give us the most engaged supporters? • Who should we target for a second gift? To become sustainers? • Who is unsubscribing, when, and why?
Analysis = Exploration When you see something strange, dig in: • Who? • What? • When? • Where? …and look for evidence of why. Flickr: DG Jones
More on digging in • Compare: • Across issues • Across categories • Across timeframes • Look for trends over time • Segment by: • Donor status • Activist status • Time on list
Learn Excel! • Sort and filter • Charts • Formulas • Pivot tables Yes, seriously!
Remember:Some bites are too big to chew • If you can't get good data... • Or if it really is too much work... • Sometimes it’s okay to with your gut! Flickr: Roger Smith
Building a data-driven culture • When making decisions, ask: • Is there data that can help us? • Are we making big assumptions that data could prove? • Do what the data says – or have a good reason not to!
Building a data-driven culture • Sharing is caring! • Share both your data and your results! • Better yet, show others how you draw insight from your data Flickr: 1225design
Get cozy with numbers • Listen to the stories they tell you • Know how to • Compare them • Manipulate them • Explain them
What’s “normal”? • It looks something like this: • Without using statistics: • Get familiar with your typical ranges • Learn to eyeball what “normal” is These are “normal” values, at a glance
Benchmark against yourself • Benchmark reports tell how you're doing compared to others. • That can be useful. • But others aren't you!
Do-it-yourself benchmarking (email performance) • Report on ALL your emails from past year: • # delivered • # of opens • # of clicks • # of actions/donations (if possible) • # of unsubscribes Flickr: Samantha Chapnick
Do-it-yourself benchmarking (email performance) • Calculate average rates for all messages. E.g. for average open rate: • Take sum of all opens • Divide by sum of all delivered This is your benchmark open rate. • Do the same for other metrics.
Do-it-yourself benchmarking (email performance) • For bonus points, group messages by type: • Advocacy • Fundraising • National • Local • Etc. ...and calculate those benchmarks rates.
Using your do-it-yourself benchmarks • Compare each new message against benchmark rates. • Update periodically with recent data. • Watch how benchmarks change over time.
Lying with data:The path to the Dark Side “Come to the Dark Side. We have cookies.” Flickr: Antony Hell
Don't compare apples to oranges Compare-able Not compare-able! Flickr: b1ue5ky
Don't compare apples to oranges What you can do: Compare things that are as similar as you can make them. Remove oddballs.
Don't make too much of a small difference What you can do: Calculate lift. Pay attention to significant differences. Ignore the others.
Calculating lift • "Lift" shows how different two rates are. • Rate X1 is your baseline. How much better/worse is rate X2? • Positive means X2 is better. • Look for lifts of at least 5%. • Anything over 10% is pretty good.
Graphs can lie, too What Excel actually gave me by default: But the lift is only 2%!
What’s happening here?Should we panic? What you can do:Check your graphs. Are they clear? Are they truthful?
Don't draw conclusions from tiny numbers • Rule of thumb: to know anything about your data, you need: • At least 100 data points. • Preferably 500 data points. • More is better. What you can do: Say "we think this might be a trend, but we need more data."
This has a name: Statistical Significance • Yes, it’s statistics… • But it's important! • Look for online tools that calculate this for you
Don't draw careless conclusions Remember: correlation does not imply causation. xkcd.com
Don't draw careless conclusions • Data tells you WHAT, not WHY • Have you heard this one? • "80% of our activists have taken action on food issues. • Therefore, they must like food issues best, so we should send more food alerts." What you can do: Always give caveats when guessing the "why" behind the numbers. Second-guess your assumptions.
Don’t lie… even to yourself It’s so tempting to lie with your data! You must resist the temptation. Don’t go to the dark side!
First step: What’s your point? • You are presenting numbers for a reason. What reason? • Share your conclusions first. • THEN share the supporting data Isn’t it obvious what’s happening here? 7 Don’t let your numbers speak for themselves!
Who is your audience? • Some people “get” numbers • Others do not • Present your data in the way that speaks to them ?