Chris Paris, Emeritus Professor of Housing Studies, University of Ulster

1. Accommodation and associated services for older people in Northern Ireland: future need and demand Chris Paris, Emeritus Professor of Housing Studies, University of Ulster CARDI International Conference: Ageing Globally – Ageing Locally Session: Housing, Technology and Living Environment Wednesday 2nd November 2011, Dublin

2. Background • Focus on older adults’ housing need & demand 2006 to 2016 • Wider than last review of older adults social housing needs (1997) • Research objectives relating to older people’s housing • To analyse demographic and policy trends to support informed decision making regarding future housing need assessment • To identify existing supply of accommodation relative to the distribution of the older population • To draw up a ten-year projection of the future housing needs of older people • Three main research methods: • Wide-ranging literature review • Analysis of census and other data, including official household and population projections, for NI overall and spatially disaggregated by proposed RPA LGDs • Interviews with a range of key stakeholders

3. LGDs proposed in the RPA

4. Key findings • NI projected to have highest rate of growth in older population in UK • Growth of over-55s low in Belfast, much higher elsewhere, especially south and west • Strong evidence that older people wish to stay in their homes as long as possible • Access to suitable housing not perceived a major problem of older people • Health-related frailty is a major reason for needing to move • Next cohort of over-55s has much higher level of ownership than earlier cohorts • Lowest in Belfast and Derry-Strabane, other areas had lower levels of social renting • Older households more likely to occupy unfit homes, despite less unfitness overall • Specialised social housing for older people mainly in Belfast and Derry-Strabane • So should extra supply be focussed elsewhere? But is there demand elsewhere? • Possible mis-match between policies relating to deinstitutionalisation and probable rapid increase in number of older adults suffering from dementia • Glaring lack of age-related data on housing expectations and preferences

5. Literature review • We mainly looked at UK and Ireland, plus some EU material • Wide range of material on older people’s future housing and preferences: academic, professional, government & private • Strong emphasis on preference to stay in own homes • No evidence that access to housing is perceived as a major issue • But a theme of limited information regarding other possible options • A mix of ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors affect choices about staying/ moving • ‘Positive’ pull factors inclining people to remain in current home include ties with family & community, familiarity with home and neighbourhood, and retention of ownership of asset • ‘Negative’ pull factors include lack of knowledge of other options, few realistic options, fear of upheaval and change, fear of losing asset and moving into rented accommodation, possibly at high cost • ‘Push’ factors necessitating a move include deteriorating health, safety or security concerns, physical deterioration of dwelling, fuel poverty or inability to make ends meet more generally.

6. Housing models and solutions • Useful ideas of a ‘triangle of intervention’ and a ‘continuum of care’ • Triangle of intervention: from broad measures for all older people (information on benefits) to resource-intensive action for a minority • Residential care/Care Homes • Specialised housing • - Close care • - Extra care/housing with care • - Sheltered housing • - Park homes • Retirement villages • Mainstream housing • Home care/domiciliary care • Repairs/adaptations/grants • Mainstream housing • - No inputs • Complex needs • Substantial needs • Low-moderate support needs • No current need • Provide information • ‘Preventive’ intervention for • entire older population The Older Population

7. Future need & planning issues • Age in itself is not necessarily a good indicator of housing needs • But the availability of care is crucial in cases of long-term ill-health or illness • Impossible to provide a single estimate of demand • Demand and need levels depend on variable factors: • People typically only look to change at times of crisis • Demand and supply are inter-related, not in a single cause-effect relationship • Waiting lists for sheltered housing show ‘visible’ demand • But may be ‘insurance policies’ for people who do not actually want to move • There were no specific planning policies relating to older people’s accommodation • Demographic trends show significant changes in the NI population to 2016 • Older overall, with many more older 1- and 2-person households • Overall projected population 2006-16 growth: 121,000 or 7.3% • With most net growth is in older age groups, especially 65-75 and 85+ • The projected growth of over-55s has a strong geographical bias by LGDs • Belfast had largest number in 2006 but has very low projected growth to 2016 • Much higher rates of growth projected elsewhere, especially in the south & west

8. Growth of 55+ to 2016 by LGDs

9. A changing housing market context • Massive overall change in the NI housing system, especially tenure, 1981-2006 • 30% growth in number of households, greatly exceeding population growth (13%) • Major shifts in the pattern of tenures • Huge expansion of home ownership between 1981 and 2006 • From 50 to 70% of households; number of home owners up by 50% • The social housing stock fell overall with a changing set of providers • HE housed 40% of households in 1981 but just 14% in 2006 • Reversal of long-term decline in private renting & growth of buy-to-let • Significant geographical variations (all households) • Owner-occupation low in Belfast (56%) and Derry/Strabane (63%); all others 70-76% • HE rental highest in Belfast (26%) and Derry/Strabane (25%); all others 14-19% • Other social – primarily HAs – highest in Belfast (5%) with others 1-3% • Private renting highest in Belfast (13%) • Similar (but lower) variations for pensioner households • Owner-occupation lowest in Belfast (55%) and Derry/Strabane (60%); others 61-69% • HE rental highest in Belfast (30%) and Derry/Strabane (25%); all others 17-24% • HA tenants concentrated in Belfast (9%), low Mid Ulster and Fermanagh & Omagh (3%)

10. Implications for future needs • These trends have mixed implications for future needs/demands for older people • Together with current uncertainties due to the housing market recession • Can we distinguish short-term fluctuations from possible new longer-term trends? • But home ownership is not likely to increase generally at same rate to 2016 • Fewer HE homes to sell and changed sales scheme • ‘Shock’ of housing market recession and problems for 1st time buyers • May imply expanded need for rental housing in social & private sectors • And increasing numbers of people reaching 65 will own their homes outright • Cohort effect from higher ownership among current generation of 55-64 year olds • They are not likely to want to move into social housing • Though lower values since 2007 may affect perceptions regarding other options • There probably will be fewer older potential clients for specialised social housing • The number of HE tenants moving into older age groups is falling • We need carefully to assess likely patterns of future vacancies and demands • But there may be more need for other forms of health-related care • Future social provision is highly policy-dependent

11. Suitable/specialised housing • The study considers ‘suitable’ and ‘specialised’ social housing for older people • Difficult to enumerate ‘suitable’ accommodation: was defined by dwelling types • But many are occupied by non-pensioner households (e.g. one-bedroom flats) • Decent data exist on HA specialised accommodation for older persons • Showing growth from <6,000 in 1991 to 11,000< in 2009/10 • But poor data on bed places in nursing homes & residential care homes • No consistent and systematic source of data, figures are a bit rubbery • We think the number of places has grown from <14,000 in 1991 to 15,000 in 2009/10 • We analysed the spatial distribution of specialised & suitable accommodation • Using ‘location quotients’ showing share of such accommodation compared to the 2006 distribution of older population (55 and over) • If the shares of older people in an LGD is the same as its share of specialised accommodation, it will score an LQ of 1 • Thus LQs of 0.9-1.1 are ‘average’, <0.8 is relatively low, and 1.3< is relatively high • This is a purely a descriptive method – no implication of ‘under’ or ‘over’ supply

12. Geographical variations by LGDs • ‘Specialised’ social housing for older people • Comprising HA sheltered & with support: 10,300 in 2006 • Very high LQ in 2006 in Belfast (2.0), high in Derry/Strabane (1.3), low in south and west • If supply stays constant, then by 2016 differences will become more marked • ‘Appropriate’ social housing for older people • Mainly HE bungalows & ground floor flats: 28,400 • Less variation: highest LQ in Derry/Strabane (1.4), all others 0.8-1.1 • NB much HE ‘appropriate’ not occupied by older people • If supply stays constant, by 2016 only significant difference would be higher LQ for Belfast • Contrast with projected growth of 55+ population • Very low growth expected in Belfast: < 3% • Much higher east and north: 20-24% • Higher still in south and west: 25-29%

13. Projected housing needs to 2016 • An increasing % of older people will be home owners • In most cases requiring little or no public policy response • The number of HE tenants entering older age groups will fall to 2016 • No strong case for expanding age-specific social housing provision • And we need to consider where any such provision might best be located • And to think carefully about how best to use the existing stock • Strong case for expanding other age-related accommodation with care • Due to probable rapid increase in number of older adults with dementia • Possible mis-match with policies relating to deinstitutionalisation • High proportion of 55+ in unfit housing: may be an ongoing ‘pool’ • Lack of age-related data on housing expectations and preferences