Warfighter Challenge # 18 Initial Planning Conference Scenario Overview & Considerations

1. Warfighter Challenge #18 Initial Planning Conference Scenario Overview & Considerations

2. Scenario Principal Challenges • HA/DR • Integration; Coordination & Synchronization With IA/MN/HN/NGO • Crisis Response • Multiple, non-standard distribution requirements & capabilities • Lack of system linkages with non-DOD; Little formal organization • Non-DOD lead; unity of effort challenges • Austere Environment • Major Combat Operations • Large Volume of Forces & Sustainment • Rapid Response: Establish complex distribution network • Large, complex & rapid movements of forces and sustainment • Plan and evaluate multiple COAs • DOD Lead; Integrates HN/MN forces • IA/NGO in operating environment • Austere Environment

3. JCLE Sumatra Scenario Overview A UN authorized, US led coalition deploys to the island of Sumatra to assist the Government of Indonesia with overcoming an insurrection that rises after a debilitating earthquake on the island

4. Sumatra Scenario • 2009 economic downturn + recent natural disasters + militant Islam spreading • Disenfranchised military leader becomes military governor in central Sumatra and declares regional independence and announces formation of Caliphate • Government of Indonesia and Caliphate forces battle resulting in stalemate • June 2014 – major earthquake causes significant deaths and destruction, GOI overwhelmed and asks for UN assistance • USPACOM establishes Joint Task Force Humanitarian Assistance (JTF-HA) to assist USAID • GOI overwhelmed with disaster relief and insurrection, requests international assistance to maintain security • USPACOM deploys JTF-Sumatra…JTF-HA becomes subordinate

5. Scenario Considerations: Manning • Target SMEs Experience level • Deployment & distribution (D2) background • Theater-level experience • Knowledge of theater distribution systems • Knows what data is important to commander, how data is collected, how data is used to for actionable information • Can be either logistics, systems or comms background • Suggestions: • Combatant Command Joint Logistics Operations Centers • Joint Deployment Distribution Operations Centers • Logistics planners • Logistics system operators

6. Scenario Considerations: Vignettes • Two Vignettes: 1) HA/DR; 2) Major Combat • Vignette Options • Vignette 2 builds on Vignette 1 • Vignettes as stand alone • Focus primarily on Vignette 2 as the more complex distribution problem • Vignette 1 issues “lesser included” • Wargame Options • Provide participants with established COAs • Have participants build COAs, given traditional products • Commander’s Intent, CBAE, Initial Planning Guidance, etc.

7. UNCLASSIFIED QUESTIONS TCJ5/4-SS UNCLASSIFIED

8. UNCLASSIFIED Backup Slides TCJ5/4-SS UNCLASSIFIED

9. Joint Concept for Logistics Experimentation ScenarioSumatra Combat Operations

10. USTRANSCOM Scenario Disclaimer This scenario is designed solely for experimentation activities of USTRANSCOM and WFC 18 Stakeholders.  The scenario assumes a future timeframe; therefore the projected crisis and the associated strategic approach for that time are completely speculative.  The purpose of this scenario and the related documents is to represent a plausible backdrop against which conceptual constructs may be examined. In order to do this, the scenario seeks to provide the requisite complexity of the full range of political, military, economic, social, information and infrastructure aspects. The intent is to create a scalable framework for assessment of future concepts in a full spectrum environment. Accordingly, nothing in this document should be interpreted as reflecting official views of any U.S. government agency or the policies of the United States.  Moreover, this scenario in no way represents or examines a present or future United States strategic, operational plan, military, diplomatic or otherwise. Any correlation between this scenario and real events is purely coincidental. This document contains information exempt from mandatory disclosure under the FOIA. Exemption (s) 5 U.S.C. § 552(b) (5) apply.

11. The Indonesian Environment • Indonesian government is an emerging democracy continuing to build governance capacity in the face of hard economic conditions, a widely dispersed geography and corruption • Indonesian military aligned into religious and secular groups engaged in an internal power struggle • Indonesian economy not fully recovered from the global financial crisis

12. Unclassified/ For Experimentation Use Only Banda Aceh 295,000 Medan 1,770,000 Sumatra Population (2010) 47,705,207 Pematang Siantar 205,000 Pekanbaru 796,000 Jambi 457,000 Padang 986,000 Palembang 1,277,000 Lubuklinggau 201,000 Bengkulu 386,000 Bandar Lampung 940,000 Unclassified/ For Experimentation Use Only

13. Sumatra Snapshots Access to Electricity (2010) Vulnerability to Food Insecurity (2010) Access to Clean Water (2010)

14. Unclassified/ For Experimentation Use Only MEDAN Port-Container AFLD 9,514 (747 max) PADANG Port AFLD 9,022 (A330 max) PALEMBANG Port –River access AFLD 8,202 (737 max) BANDAR LAMPUNG Port AFLD 6,070 Unclassified/ For Experimentation Use Only

15. Road to Crises - Roots • Sumatra hard hit by economic downturn in 2009; slower to recover • Perceived inequalities in income and prestige hamper Sumatra development • Recovery from natural disasters never ending challenge (Earthquake/tsunami-2004; earthquakes- 2005 &2010) • Majority Muslim population- not immune to spread of militant Islam • Disenfranchised military leader (Ibn Ander) becomes military governor in central regions of Sumatra; consolidates rebel and criminal (pirate) groups

16. Road to Crises - Mounting Insecurity • In 2013, a drought followed by torrential rains wipes out much of food crop • Pirate attacks on shipping affect world economies; UNSC acting under the Charter’s Chapter VII, decides that States and regional organizations cooperating with the Governments of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore may use “all necessary means” to fight piracy and armed robbery at sea in the vicinity of the Malacca Strait, in accordance with relevant international law • Ibn Ander abruptly declares regional Independence and announces formation of Caliphate on Sumatra as “True Islamic State” • GOI and Caliphate forces engage in a series of battles that result in an tense stalemate

17. Road to Crises - Escalation • 15 July 2014 a large earthquake occurs in southern Sumatra and western Java with significant loss of life and destruction of critical infrastructure on both islands. Tens of thousands are dead or injured. GOI is overwhelmed and asks for UN assistance • As part of HADR, US Pacific Command establishes Joint Task Force Humanitarian Assistance (JTF-HA) to assist USAID • Insurrectionist forces use the disaster to go on offensive, push back Government of Indonesia (GOI) forces to enclaves in major cities (Palembang, Medan, Padang) • GOI overwhelmed with disaster relief and insurrection, requests international assistance to maintain security in Sumatra and protect the Strait of Malacca • United Nations Security Council resolution authorizes all action necessary to maintain security and support the GOI • USPACOM deploys a JTF-Sumatra…JTF-HA will become subordinate…D-Day is 12 June 2014

18. STARTEX Situation • D+40 US forces have flowed into Joint Operational Area (JOA) and are on station • HADR situation continues with power and fuel in short supply… Aerial Port of Debarkation (APODs)/ Sea Port of Debarkation (SPODs) damaged…massive IDP issues in south Sumatra • Coalition still forming in support of United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) • Countries supporting HADR: Malaysia, Singapore, Australia

19. XX 1 JFLCC Utapao, Thailand 6 x KC-135R 2 x JSTARS 2 x Global Hawks • • • SOF SOF SOF 1 x A-10 Sq 1 x Predator Sq 2 x C-130J 4 x CJ-27 III X SAG (JFMCC) JFACC (FWD) 1 x P-3 2 x C-130J 4 x CJ-27 3 x HC-130P 4 x HH-60 3 x MC-130H/P 3 x AC-130 H/U ABN TF (Reserve) 5 x KC-10 2 1 APODSPOD APODSPOD SPOD/APOD ISB SPOD 1st MEB XX JFMCC/CSG JTF/JFLCC- I Corps 1 x KC-130 2 x C-130J 4 x CJ-27 3 x MH-60 3 x CV-22 1 - 1 x F-18 Sq X JTF/JFLCC- I Corps JFSOCC

20. Time Slice Scenarios • TS1: Transition from initial deployment to sustainment…includes sustainment of Indonesian Army…complex operational environment with continuing HADR • TS2: New coalition members arrive (Australia, New Zealand)…integration and synchronization to optimize combined supply operations capabilities and reduce unnecessary redundancies • TS3: Surge operations for coalition offensive • TS4: Major SPOD closes due to labor unrest (Singapore commercial port)

21. Questions?